Serbia’s Vucic Loses Vote, Predicts Sanctions on Russia

Serbia’s former president Aleksandar Vucic conceded his coalition’s defeat to a student-backed opposition movement on Sunday, Oct. 25, and predicted that the incoming authorities would impose sanctions on Russia within months.

Speaking at his Serbian Progressive Party’s headquarters in Belgrade, Vucic said preliminary estimates showed the Student List winning 135-140 seats in the 250-member parliament, compared with around 105 for his United Serbia coalition.

“It is clear that we have lost these elections,” he said, acknowledging that final results were not yet available. A parliamentary majority requires 126 seats.

The defeat marks a major setback for one of Moscow’s closest political partners in Europe. Under Vucic, Serbia maintained ties with Russia and refused to join Western sanctions over its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, while continuing to pursue EU membership.

Vucic predicts sanctions, but winners pledged otherwise

Vucic accused his opponents of implementing an agenda devised abroad and alleged that unnamed European countries and an “American deep state” opposed to President Donald Trump had supported their victory.

“By March or April, you will have sanctions imposed on the Russian Federation,” he said, according to RFE/RL. However, his prediction conflicts with the Student List’s stated pre-election position.

In a foreign-policy platform published in September, the movement said Serbia would continue opposing sanctions against Russia. N1 reported that the statement cited Serbia’s own experience and history with sanctions, indicating that such restrictive measures do not help resolve political and security disputes.

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Iotova, who favours dialogue with Moscow and opposes military aid to Ukraine, scored between 35 and 36.5 percent of the vote, according to three polls.

The election outcome therefore does not establish that Belgrade will change its sanctions policy. Vucic’s remarks were a forecast about his opponents’ intentions, rather than an announcement by the projected winners.

Student protests become an electoral challenge

The opposition movement emerged from protests following the November 2024 collapse of a railway station canopy in Novi Sad, which killed 16 people.

Demonstrators demanded accountability over suspected corruption and construction failures. The protests developed into a nationwide challenge to Vucic’s political dominance, with students organizing a parliamentary slate drawn from outside the established governing parties.

Supporters celebrated in Belgrade, Novi Sad, and other cities after Vucic conceded. The movement’s leading candidate, cardiologist Ilija Srdanović, said its next task would be building a state governed by the rule of law.

Vucic had resigned as president on Sept. 27 to contest the parliamentary election, hoping to return as prime minister. He previously held that position before becoming president in 2017.

His resignation left parliamentary speaker Ana Brnabić serving as acting president pending a separate presidential election. Sunday’s vote concerned control of parliament and the formation of the next government.

Serbia’s balancing act between Moscow and Kyiv

Serbia’s relationship with Russia extends beyond sanctions. Belgrade has relied on Russian energy supplies and Moscow’s diplomatic support over Kosovo, whose independence Serbia does not recognize.

At the same time, Serbia has supported Ukraine’s territorial integrity, received Ukrainian refugees, and provided humanitarian and financial assistance. President Volodymyr Zelensky visited Belgrade in August for talks on bilateral cooperation and European integration.

Serbia had provided roughly €60 million ($69 million) in nonmilitary assistance to Ukraine since Russia launched its full-scale invasion, according to earlier reporting.

The EU remains central to Serbia’s economic interests, accounting for nearly 60% of its foreign trade. But maintaining Russian ties while seeking deeper European integration has complicated Belgrade’s foreign policy. The next government will inherit that balancing act alongside the student movement’s central domestic promises to tackle corruption and restore public institutions.