Former French prime minister Édouard Philippe would finish only third in the first round of the presidential election, behind Jean-Luc Mélenchon, according to a new Cluster 17 poll for Politico published on Monday.
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Philippe, whose campaign has struggled to gain momentum, is credited with 16 percent of voting intentions - down three points from the previous edition of the survey in September. Mélenchon, the leader of France Unbowed, would be better placed to join Marine Le Pen in the run-off, polling at between 18.5 percent and 19.5 percent depending on the scenario tested.
Marine Le Pen, the National Rally candidate, would widen her lead over her rivals with 33 percent if Philippe were the candidate of the centrist bloc. That represents a two-point rise since September, despite Mediapart’s reporting of antisemitic messages attributed to Jordan Bardella - allegations he contests.
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Raphaël Glucksmann, selected as the social-democratic primary’s candidate earlier in October, gained one point to reach 13 percent.
The outlook for the centrist bloc would be worse if Gabriel Attal replaced Philippe as its candidate. Attal would receive 12 percent of the vote, down one and a half points from September, and would be overtaken by both Mélenchon and Glucksmann.
On the right, Les Republicans' Bruno Retailleau would stand at 7 percent, while liberal David Lisnard would take 8 percent when included in the projection. Lisnard’s presence would also reduce support for Le Pen and Éric Zemmour.
As with all opinion polls, the findings are a snapshot of opinion at a given moment and have no predictive value.
The survey was conducted online from 19 to 20 October among a sample of 3,000 people, representative of the French population aged 18 and over, using quota sampling. The margin of error is between 0.8 and 1.8 percentage points.
(With newswires)