After a crushing 20-16 loss to Virginia Tech this past weekend, the Clemson Tigers sit at 4-3 overall and 2-2 in the ACC. They still need just two more wins to become bowl-eligible.
With that in mind, it’s time to look at the updated postseason projections for the program, since both the odds of reaching bowl eligibility and the projections for where and against whom Clemson will play have shifted considerably.
Note: Head coach Dabo Swinney and the Tigers have been bowl-eligible for the past 21 consecutive seasons, which is the fourth-longest streak among FBS programs.
ESPN
Last week, ESPN analysts Mark Schlabach and Kyle Bonagura agreed on Clemson’s bowl destination for the first time this season, with both projecting the Tigers to land in the Old El Paso Sun Bowl in El Paso, Texas, on Dec. 31.
Following the program’s Week 8 loss to the Hokies, Schlabach still has Clemson landing in the Sun Bowl, but with a different opponent.
Instead of Washington, he now projects the Tigers to face Oregon State, which features the nation’s leading passer in Braden Atkinson and its leading receiver in true freshman Jesse Legree. It would be the first meeting in each program’s history.
Meanwhile, Bonagura has Clemson facing off against Georgia State in the inaugural Transperfect San Juan Bowl, to be played in San Juan, Puerto Rico, on Dec. 16 at 7:30 p.m. Broadcast information is still to be determined.
Setting aside what the projection says about how far the Tigers have fallen in the national picture this season, it would be an interesting matchup. The program has only ever played outside the country twice, both times in Tokyo, Japan. The first was a 1982 win over Wake Forest, and the other was a 1991 win over Duke.
Clemson has also faced the Panthers only once in program history, a 28-0 win in 2014. However, they’ll open up next season in Death Valley against the Sun Belt program in a “buy” game.
In ESPN’s updated FPI projections, the Tigers are now expected to earn only two more wins over the next five contests, finishing with a 6-6 overall record for the season. They have a 78.6% chance of hitting the six-win mark and a 2.1% chance of winning out.
CBS Sports
CBS Sports’ Brad Crawford has the same projection for Clemson this week: the Sun Bowl vs. Washington. The Tigers have never played in the Sun Bowl or faced the Huskies, so a meeting would be a first on both counts.
Washington currently sits at 4-3 overall and 1-3 in Big 10 play, suffering three straight losses to Minnesota, USC and Iowa through Weeks 4-6. However, they were able to bounce back in Week 7, defeating Purdue 38-26.
Similar to Clemson, the Huskies are currently facing a quarterback controversy, with junior Demond Williams Jr., who nearly transferred to LSU over the offseason, recently benched in favor of Elijah Brown, a first-year transfer from Stanford.
Sports Illustrated
Sports Illustrated’s Bryan Fischer has moved off last week’s Sun Bowl projection against No. 6 Utah, which isn’t surprising, considering the Tigers’ loss and the Utes’ win over No. 18 Houston.
He now has Clemson meeting USC in the Trust & Will Holiday Bowl on Dec. 28 at Snapdragon Stadium in San Diego, California. The game will air on The CW at 5:00 p.m.
This would be the Tigers and Trojans' second-ever meeting. The two programs' lone contest came back in 1966, when Clemson fell to USC, 30-0, in Los Angeles, California.
Head coach Lincoln Riley and the Trojans currently sit at 6-2 overall and 3-2 in conference play. They were in the Top 20 of the AP Poll entering Week 8, but after being upset by Big 10 foe Wisconsin, 24-7, this past weekend, they've now fallen out of the rankings as a whole.
On3
After projecting Clemson to face off against Oregon State in the Sun Bowl last week — which is now what Schlabach estimates — On3’s Brett McMurphy has since changed his projections to the Tigers matching up with the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns in the San Juan Bowl.
Like Washington and Oregon State, Louisiana is a program Clemson has never faced. In fact, the Tigers have played every other FBS team in the state except the Ragin’ Cajuns.
The Sun Belt program is 5-3 overall and 2-2 in conference play, and it would make for an interesting contest, since both teams have struggled to throw the ball. The reasons differ, though. Louisiana is built around the run, boasting five players who have topped 100 rushing yards in 2026. Clemson, on the other hand, has just struggled to maintain a cohesive offense, especially through the air.
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