MEXICO · SECURITY
Key Facts
- —What is happening TResearch, a private Mexican polling firm, puts murder victims since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office at 50,174 by Monday, 26 October 2026.
- —Why it matters The toll is far below the rate of the previous term, yet violence still drives US pressure on Mexico over cartels, fentanyl and trade.
- —The numbers TResearch counts 66 victims a day this term against 95 before; the government’s own figure was 42.2 a day in September 2026, a different measure.
- —Who is who Sheinbaum, a leftist, has led Mexico since 1 October 2024; the SESNSP is the national public-security agency; INEGI is the statistics office.
- —What to watch Watch for official October figures in November, and whether TResearch’s weekly average, 37 a day on 26 October after 43 on 17 October, rises again.
- —Power Index Mexico ranks 2nd of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 71.4 points (October 2026 edition).
- —What it means for you US travellers, investors and policymakers get a data point that killings have fallen but remain high, as Washington presses Mexico on cartels and trade.
A private count says more than 50,000 people have been murdered in Mexico since Claudia Sheinbaum became president. Official figures show a steep fall.
The Mexico murder count has passed 50,000 since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office in October 2024, says TResearch, a private polling firm. Its tracker shows 50,174 victims in 756 days, to Monday, 26 October 2026, two years into a six-year term.
This matters to US readers because Washington presses Mexico on cartels, fentanyl and trade, and violence is central to that pressure. The figure is an estimate, and the government says killings have fallen by about half.
What the Mexico Murder Count Shows
TResearch counts victims of intentional homicide, meaning murder and other deliberate killings. Its total averages 66 victims a day over 756 days, or one victim about every 22 minutes.
Under Sheinbaum’s predecessor and political ally, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, TResearch counts 95 a day. Sheinbaum’s average is therefore about 30% lower, though the total still passes 50,000.
How TResearch Builds the Count
TResearch does not count bodies itself. It starts from the daily preliminary tally of the Federal Security Cabinet, which gathers reports from state prosecutors and federal agencies.
For finished months it uses official data: INEGI, the national statistics institute, to December 2025, then the SESNSP. The SESNSP is the Executive Secretariat of the National Public Security System.
The two measures are not like for like, because TResearch’s term total mixes INEGI figures for 2024 and 2025 with SESNSP months. TResearch’s own conversion puts INEGI counts about 19% above SESNSP counts, so its 66 a day should not be set against 42.2.
What the Official Figures Say
On Tuesday, 13 October, Sheinbaum and Marcela Figueroa, head of the SESNSP, said intentional homicides fell 52% in two years. Daily averages fell from 86.9 in September 2024 to 42.2 in September 2026, the lowest September since 2015.
The SESNSP counts victims in murder investigations opened by the state prosecutors. INEGI instead counts death certificates, and its preliminary 2025 figure was 27,989 presumed homicides, down 16.6% from 33,550 in 2024.
Critics say some killings are filed under other crimes. Sheinbaum answered in July that “homicide is homicide” and that the figures are not dressed up.
Is the Trend Still Falling?
TResearch’s own data show a rebound since August and a partial retreat since mid-October. Its seven-day average rose from 32 a day on 7 August to 43 on 17 October, then fell to 37.
Official monthly averages stayed between 41 and 45 a day from June to September. TResearch counts 13,601 victims in 2026 to 17 October, 47 a day, down 30% on 2025.
TResearch projects about 20,300 victims for 2026, the lowest year since 2014, on an INEGI-equivalent basis. The 13,601 and 47 a day above use the lower SESNSP basis, so the two are not directly comparable.
What It Means for US Readers
Killings have fallen sharply but remain high, so security stays a live issue between Washington and Mexico City. Officials say seven states account for half of 2026 killings: Baja California, Guanajuato, Chihuahua, Sinaloa, State of Mexico, Guerrero and Morelos.
For context, read Mexico and the United States explained and Mexico geopolitics, US tariffs and China. An earlier report on the 53% drop claim and the Mexico hub give more background.
In Plain English
- TResearch: a private Mexican polling and research firm led by Carlos Penna.
- SESNSP: the government agency that publishes monthly crime counts from state prosecutors.
- INEGI: Mexico’s national statistics institute, which counts deaths from certificates.
- Intentional homicide: murder and other deliberate killings, the category all three counts use.
What Is Not Known
TResearch’s own tracker, updated on 27 October, shows 50,174 victims in 756 days to 26 October. Its method note says the daily count is preliminary and is calibrated to SESNSP and INEGI figures.
No single official total for the term exists, so it is unknown whether official data alone pass 50,000. No government or opposition reply to the TResearch figure was found by Tuesday evening.
What Comes Next
The SESNSP is expected to publish October figures in November. INEGI released its 2025 count in early August 2026, so its 2026 count is not due until about mid-2027.
TResearch publishes a daily report, so its total will keep rising. A rising total alone does not show a worse trend, because the daily rate matters.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is TResearch?
A private Mexican polling and research firm led by Carlos Penna. It says it has run more than 3,000 studies since 2017 in 13 countries, and its homicide count builds on official data.
Is the 50,000 figure official?
No, it is a private estimate built from official sources. The government has not published a total for the term.
Are killings in Mexico rising or falling?
Official data show a fall of about half since September 2024. TResearch’s count shows a smaller rebound since August, then a dip in late October.
How does this term compare with the last one?
TResearch counts 66 victims a day now against 95 under López Obrador. INEGI recorded 33,550 homicides in 2024 and 27,989 in 2025.
Why do the counts differ?
The SESNSP counts investigations by prosecutors, INEGI counts death certificates, and TResearch blends both with a daily tally. Each method gives a different number.
Sources: TResearch, daily homicide report, 18 October 2026 (PDF); TResearch, daily homicide tracker, updated 27 October 2026; TResearch, daily homicide post, 27 October 2026; INEGI, preliminary homicide statistics for 2025 (PDF); Executive Secretariat of the National Public Security System (SESNSP); Federal government security report of 13 October 2026 (press conference summary) (all accessed 27 October 2026).