Carson Kelly has to be one of the best value free-agent signings by the Cubs in recent memory.
Signed to a two-year, $11.5 million deal before the 2025 season (that was two years at $5 million each plus a $1.5 million buyout), Kelly batted .249/.333/.428 with 17 home runs in 111 games last year, producing 3.5 bWAR, his best MLB season. He was also excellent defensively, throwing out 34.1 percent of runners trying to steal.
In 2026, Kelly was still very good, though not quite as good as in 2025. He batted .258/.336/.376 with 10 home runs in 120 games, good for 1.9 bWAR. As noted in my recent article summing up the first year of ABS challenges, Kelly was also one of the best catchers in those challenges in 2026.
Kelly and the Cubs have a mutual option for 2027 for $7.5 million (or that $1.5 million buyout). Kelly is 32 (turns 33 next July) and might not have a better choice than to return to the Cubs for another season. Mutual options are almost always turned down by either team or player, but this is one where it might benefit both parties for another year of Kelly paired with Miguel Amaya.
Why is this? Amaya turns 28 in March. He had a pretty good year with the bat and throwing out runners (28.9 percent) but I don’t think he’s quite ready to take on the role as full-time catcher with (perhaps) Owen Ayers as his backup. Ayers, I believe, still needs more Triple-A development time. The Cubs did have Ayers join the team for the final week of the 2026 season just to observe and learn, but that doesn’t mean he’d be ready to become a MLB backup catcher right away in 2027.
So my feeling is this: Bring back Kelly on that $7.5 million option, if he’s willing, or perhaps tear it up and offer him a bit more, with some sort of vesting option/buyout for 2028.
Would you do that?