Published Monday, 26 October, 10:22 a.m. ET (3:22 p.m. Madrid) · Source: Vox and PP announcements, Kalshi, Polymarket.
Spain’s two big conservative parties just agreed to stop competing with each other for the Senate, to avoid splitting the right-wing vote. On Monday, 26 October, Vox, the right-wing party led by Santiago Abascal, said it will skip Senate races in six provinces and field only one candidate in 14 more, while the People’s Party (PP) will sit out three, ahead of the Spain Election 2026 vote on 29 November.
Key Facts
- What happened: Vox skips six Senate races and fields one candidate in 14 more; the PP skips three.
- Who decided: Vox and PP leaders; PP secretary general Miguel Tellado announced it at a news conference.
- What next: Spain publishes the submitted candidate lists on Wednesday, 28 October; voters go to the polls on 29 November.
- Prediction markets: Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market, priced Feijóo at 82% to be prime minister (10:19 a.m. ET, 26 October).
In plain English
Spain elects two chambers. The Senate is the upper house, and in each province voters mark up to three names on a ballot.
The PP is the main conservative opposition party. Vox sits to its right, and the Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez leads the government.
Why a Senate Pact Is Needed
If two allies split the same voters, a rival bloc can win seats that the allies would have taken together.
The left moved first. The PSOE, the left-wing Frente Amplio alliance and regional left parties registered a joint Senate ticket late on 16 October. Abascal then offered the PP a similar deal, and PP leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo said it would be “a mistake” to hand the left control of the Senate.
What Each Side Gives Up
Vox will not field its own Senate candidates in Las Palmas, Santa Cruz de Tenerife, Cádiz, Valencia, Castellón and the Balearic Islands. In those provinces the PP will place an independent candidate proposed by Vox on its list, in second or third position.
In 14 other provinces, Vox will present a single candidate: Sevilla, Huelva, Asturias, Badajoz, Álava, Navarra, Cáceres, Huesca, Zaragoza, Alicante, Granada, Cuenca, Pontevedra and Jaén.
In return, the PP will not run in Gipuzkoa, Girona and Tarragona. Tellado said the PP has never won a Senate seat in Girona or Tarragona, and has long gone without one in Gipuzkoa.
Why Judges Are the Real Prize
The PP won an absolute Senate majority in 2023, and both parties want to keep it. They also aim for three-fifths of the chamber, the threshold needed to choose members of the Constitutional Court and the General Council of the Judiciary, the body that governs Spain’s judges.
Tellado called the deal “good news” and said it aims “to protect the centre-right majority in the Senate” from the radical left. Vox said the two parties have very different platforms, but share the need to “expel Pedro Sánchez’s criminal organisation” from public institutions, as it put it.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Kalshi, the market “Prime Minister of Spain after the next election?” priced Feijóo at 82%, Sánchez at 19% and Abascal at 3% on 26 October at 10:19 a.m. ET, with 24,483 contracts traded. Kalshi is regulated in the US by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
On Polymarket, a crypto-based exchange, the PP was priced at 81% to win the general election, with US$206,411 traded. These prices are bets, not polls, and each market is priced separately, so totals need not equal 100%.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for US Readers
Spain is a NATO member and a large European economy, so who controls its Senate affects how easily a conservative government could appoint judges and push through laws. US investors in Spanish assets will watch whether the right wins both chambers.
What Is Not Known
Vox has not named its independents for the six PP lists, or its 14 single candidates. Election authorities still have to validate every list.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did Vox and the PP agree on for the Senate?
Vox will not run in six provinces and will field one candidate in 14 more. The PP will skip three provinces where it has never, or not for 26 years, won a Senate seat.
Why does the Senate matter in Spain?
Three-fifths of the Senate is the threshold for renewing the Constitutional Court and the General Council of the Judiciary, which governs judges. The PP won an absolute majority there in 2023.
Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error
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