MUMBAI: The Indian rupee is likely to come under pressure at Monday’s open, potentially slipping below the psychological level of 95, with an oil price overhang compounded by the likely absence of last week’s supportive flows.
The Indian rupee is expected to open in the 95.00-95.04 range, per traders, after settling at 94.94 per dollar on Friday.
The Indian rupee traded between 94.32 and 94.97 last week, moving toward the firmer side of the range on inflows linked to the Jio Platforms IPO and position unwinding.
The allotment is on Monday, with the shares scheduled to list on the bourses on Wednesday.
The IPO attracted robust foreign institutional investor demand, with part of the associated flows likely hitting the spot market and lending support to the rupee, bankers said.
The flow support seen last week will not recur, and oil remains a drag on sentiment, a currency trader at a private sector bank said. That tilts the rupee’s risk balance to the downside, with central bank intervention remaining the key, he added.
Dollar demand from oil refiners is not currently a direct factor for the rupee with the Reserve Bank of India’s special window letting them meet their foreign-exchange requirements outside the usual market.
However, Brent crude at near $115 a barrel remains a key macro concern for the rupee, worsening the external outlook, driving hedging demand and dampening foreign portfolio flows.
Brent climbed more than 6% last week to a six-month high, with ongoing attacks on Saudi Arabia keeping supply concerns in focus.
Beyond oil, the Federal Reserve’s policy decision will be a key focus this week. While a pause is widely expected, markets will be looking for clues on the rate outlook, particularly whether another hike is likely in December.