Myanmar: Is US undermining EU's diplomatic blockade?

The US government has begun a quiet reproachment with Myanmar's military-backed government, holding two rounds of talks since September, with State Department representative Michael Vance reportedly meeting Myanmar officials in Naypyitaw and then in Tokyo earlier this month.

Washington wants to tackle online scam centers, secure the release of an imprisoned American businessman Adam Castillo, and potentially gain access to Myanmar's rare-earth resources. The market for the valuable minerals is currently controlled by the US rival China.

Meanwhile, Southeast Asian governments are also increasingly questioning their policy of isolating Myanmar's military leadership, and multiple countries have already renewed direct diplomatic contacts.

The EU, however, continues to reject the legitimacy of the military junta in the war-torn country. The European bloc has also remained unmoved by the 2025/2026 election which ended with military chief Min Aung Hlaing becoming the president. The military retains control over the political system.

EU's sanctions still in force

The EU responded to Myanmar's February 2021 military coup by suspending direct financial assistance to the government, imposing targeted sanctions and sharply reducing diplomatic engagement with the military authorities.

Its sanctions currently cover 105 individuals and 22 entities connected to the military. In April, the EU extended these measures for another 12 months.

At the same time, Brussels is providing humanitarian assistance to displaced communities and Rohingya refugees and is supporting civil society organizations.

The EU also stopped short of withdrawing Myanmar's preferential trade access because of concerns about the consequences for workers, particularly the mostly young women employed in the country's garment industry. Last year, bilateral goods trade was worth about €4 billion ($4.46 billion), up from €3.4 billion in 2019.

Brussels supports ASEAN's peace deal

The civil war triggered by the 2021 coup has killed an estimated 100,000 people. Rebel groups still control or contest large swathes of Myanmar, and over 4 million people have been internally displaced, according to UN data.

The EU "continues to uphold its policy of non-recognition of the current military regime," in view of "the ongoing violence and the attack against its own population," an EU spokesman told DW.

At the same time, the bloc "is closely monitoring developments in the discussions and positions of the United States, Japan, ASEAN countries and other major actors with representatives of Myanmar's military regime."

"It also supports ASEAN efforts, in particular the Five-Point Consensus, which has yet to be fully implemented," the spokesperson added, referring to the peace deal proposed by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in 2021.

Myanmar diplomats reach out to European partners

In the aftermath of the coup, ASEAN took the unprecedented decision to exclude Myanmar's military leaders from its highest-level meetings after the junta failed to implement the regional peace plan.

However, ASEAN's position is showing signs of change. Some member states, most notably Myanmar's neighbor Thailand, signal growing frustration with the lack of progress towards ending Myanmar's civil war.

Last week, Thai Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow welcomed Washington's renewed engagement and suggested that ASEAN members would hold substantive discussions about Myanmar's future at their summit in Manila next month.

Myanmar's authorities are also seeking to break their diplomatic isolation. In September, Myanmar's leader Hlaing gave an interview to Time magazine, his first with a major Western publication since the coup, as part of an apparent effort to rebuild relations with Western governments.

On October 22, Burma Campaign UK, a London-based human rights organization, accused the British government of making a "significant shift in approach" after the British Foreign Office hosted Win Zeyar Tun, the charge d'affaires of Myanmar's military-controlled embassy in London, at an ASEAN diplomatic gathering days earlier.

According to an article published by Intelligence Online this month, the regime's charge d'affaires in Brussels, Khin Thidar Ay, has also sought contacts with European politicians, including Czech MEP Ondrej Dostal, a member of the European Parliament's delegation for Southeast Asia.

EU's isolation 'has achieved relatively little'

Kristina Kironska, of Palacky University Olomouc in the Czech Republic and an expert on the EU's policy on Myanmar, told DW that the EU has little reason to follow Washington's apparent shift towards engagement with the Myanmar junta.

The US strategy "appears to be pursuing specific interests" such as rare earth mining and cybercrime, she said.

However, the most important rare earth mining operations are no longer controlled by the military, but by Myanmar's ethnic rebels such as the Kachin Independence Organization in Kachin State. Therefore, "it remains to be seen what the US can achieve through negotiations with the junta," she said.

The EU has long positioned itself as a defender of democracy and human rights in Myanmar, "so abandoning this now because the US is exploring a new, perhaps more transactional approach would undermine the EU's credibility," Kironska told DW.

"At the same time, isolation has achieved relatively little. The question is therefore not whether the EU should engage, but rather with whom and under what conditions," she added.

Balancing act between Myanmar's rebels and junta

The EU is forced to consider risks to its own influence. If Washington, ASEAN governments and other regional powers increase their engagement with Myanmar's authorities, the EU risks becoming increasingly marginal in discussions about the country's political future.

Yet greater engagement with the military could undermine Brussels' relations with Myanmar's democratic opposition and ethnic resistance organizations, many of which control substantial territory.

"The key question for Brussels is whether it can remain a credible defender of democratic change while ensuring that it still has a meaningful voice in the negotiations that will determine Myanmar's future," Sabe Soe, director of the NGO Burma Centre Prague, told DW.

One possibility is for Brussels to maintain its sanctions against military leaders and their businesses while expanding diplomacy through ASEAN, the UN and other regional partners, said Soe. The EU could also tie any easing of restrictions to humanitarian access, improvements in political freedoms and progress towards peace.

Soe also suggested that the EU could pursue economic engagement in areas administered by revolutionary and ethnic resistance forces, offering an alternative to engagement centred on the military authorities in Naypyidaw.

This approach would allow the EU to remain involved in Myanmar's future without necessarily recognizing its military-backed government, she said.

For now, Brussels seems to have little appetite for a fundamental policy rethink. But this could change as more governments reopen their doors to Myanmar's generals.

Edited by: Darko Janjevic