With only a week left until the midterm elections determine which party controls the House and Senate, Minnesota has emerged as a surprising state where Republicans stand a chance to flip a Senate seat.
Republicans are trying to fight off a blue wave as Trump's approval ratings continue to slide and voters express concerns tied to the economy, inflation, rising fuel costs and the Iran war. While some of the most competitive Senate races are in swing states like Michigan and Georgia, the Senate race in Minnesota has also become a battleground that could deliver a win for Republicans. Democratic Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan and retired broadcaster Michele Tafoya, a Republican, are vying for the seat.
Minnesota had been thought to be a safe spot for Democrats, having last elected a Republican to the Senate in 2002. The state has voted for a Democratic president in every election since 1976. But in this year's election cycle, there are three key indicators that Republicans stand a chance of flipping the seat.
"The Republicans have their best shot in 20 years at winning the state," Hamline University professor of political science and legal studies David Schultz told Newsweek, crediting the state's issues with corruption and "Democratic Party fatigue" as reasons why Republicans might secure a win. He added that he would not be surprised if Tafoya won the election.
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The three indicators as to why Republicans stand a shot are:
1. The Senate Seat is Open
One of the clearest reasons Minnesota has become a tight race is that the Senate seat in question doesn't have an incumbent to defend it. Senator Tina Smith is retiring when her term ends on January 3. While it's not out of the ordinary to unseat an incumbent, running for reelection has several advantages such as name recognition, party support, established fundraising avenues, and visible track records. With Smith retiring, many of those advantages are no longer in play.
The two Minnesota Senate seats in the U.S. Congress have had an incumbent on the ballot since Smith won a special election in 2018. Senator Amy Klobuchar, who holds Minnesota's other Senate seat, has been in office since she won her first election in 2006.
However, both Flanagan and Tafoya already have name recognition. As lieutenant governor, Flanagan's name is already associated with Minnesota politics, and Smith has endorsed her in the race for the seat. However, Schultz said that Minnesota voters might be experiencing "Democratic Party fatigue" after decades with Democrats at the helm of the state, which could counteract any advantage afforded to Flanagan by Smith's endorsement.
As a journalist and former sports broadcaster, Tafoya also is a well-recognized name among Minnesota voters.
Flanagan also has an advantage when it comes to party organization in the state, Larry Jacobs, a professor of politics at the University of Minnesota, told Newsweek.
"The Republican party…lacks money, organization and infrastructure," he said. "The Democratic Party is very well organized."
Those resources could benefit Flanagan despite Tafoya's campaigning success.
2. The Cook Political Report shifted the race
The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan U.S. election forecaster, has shifted several races this year in the favor of Democrats as Trump approval ratings slip and voters become more concerned about several key issues. However, the report shifted Minnesota toward Republicans two weeks before the midterms. While the race is still considered "lean Democrat," the new label is a downgrade from its prior "likely Democrat" rating.
The report credited the state's welfare fraud scandal and Flanagan's underwhelming poll results as reason behind the shift. Whereas Flanagan is seen as more progressive, Tafoya is gaining support among independents, Jacobs said.
"I'd be surprised but not shocked," Jacobs told Newsweek when asked about if Tafoya wins the election. "There are plenty of indications that the race is close, but Flanagan consistently has had a small lead, so that's something."
3. The Controversies Around High-Profile Democratic Politicians
Controversies have drawn attention to some of Minnesota's highest profile Democratic politicians, including a welfare fraud scandal that prompted calls for Democratic Governor Tim Walz's resignation, and a federal investigation into Democratic Representative Ilhan Omar's immigration history and a disputed claim that she married her brother to help him enter the United States.
As attention turns to those disputes, Republicans have gained opportunities, and Tafoya's campaign has capitalized on the controversies by linking Flanagan, who is Walz's lieutenant governor, to them.
Schultz said that corruption is top of mind for Minnesota voters.
"What's hard to figure out right now is whether or not Minnesota is going to be a referendum on Donald Trump or a referendum on the Democrats," Schultz said, adding that for undecided voters, fraud is the top issue. "The Democrats are running against fraud and corruption in the Trump administration, and the Republicans are running against fraud and corruption in the Walz administration."
What Happens Next
It remains unclear which way undecided voters will lean, Schultz said, particularly in a race that has tightened in the campaign's final stretch. Minnesota voters will cast their ballots on November 3, and the outcome could help determine which party controls the Senate and how much support or opposition Trump faces during the final two years of his term.
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here. Contact Newsweek editors for this story: Robert Greenall and Jason Lemon