Israel election: Opposition appears to have slight advantage on Netanyahu after inconclusive vote

Israeli opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot edged slightly ahead of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a fiercely contested first election since the October 2023 attacks, setting up a tense period of negotiations on who will form the next government.

Eisenkot’s bloc is on track to secure 52 of Israel’s 120 parliamentary seats, according to three exit polls published after voting closed at 10 p.m. local time on Tuesday, ahead of 50 for Netanyahu’s religious right-wing alliance.

That would leave both contenders well short of a majority needed to become the country’s next leader, but potentially put Eisenkot in the driver’s seat when it comes to forming a ruling coalition. Votes are still being counted, however, and the final picture could yet change. Further complicating matters, Netanyahu’s Likud looks set to be the biggest single party with 24-25 seats, versus 21-23 for Eisenkot’s Yashar.

The two Israeli Arab parties, who have emerged as potential kingmakers, are forecast to win 18 seats, the exit polls showed, ahead of expectations. Both have said they’d support Eisenkot on some level, having rallied supporters to help oust Netanyahu and prevent a new term they believe would be existential.

Voter turnout was close to record highs throughout the day, reaching almost 78% as of 10 p.m, according to the central elections committee.

Should Eisenkot, 66, succeed in becoming prime minister, it would mark a stunning defeat for Netanyahu, 77, who has dominated Israel’s politics for much of the past three decades and led the country through three years of near constant war. While the final outcome of the election remains uncertain, it’s clear that a significant portion of the support that propelled Netanyahu to power in 2022 has been eroded.

Many Israelis blame him for failing to prevent, and subsequently take responsibility for, the 2023 Hamas assault on Israel that was the deadliest day in Israeli history. Netanyahu has since waged military campaigns in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and against Iran, which he insists have made the country safer.

“The public has spoken — it has fired the Netanyahu government,” Yair Golan, leader of the leftist Democrats Party and part of Eisenkot’s bloc, said in a statement. “We represent an enormous constituency that has spent four years fighting in the streets,” he said. “We are ready to work with our partners, bridge differences and take responsibility.”

But with the make up of a new government likely to take days or weeks to finalize, Netanyahu remains Israel’s prime minister. That would enable him would join US President Donald Trump in a renewed bombing campaign of Iran after the US midterms next week, as both have repeatedly threatened.

Trump had endorsed Netanyahu, saying the incumbent had what it takes to “finish the job” in the eight-month war with the Islamic Republic.

Eisenkot pitched himself as a more modest alternative to Netanyahu, while still emphasizing a commitment to resolving Israel’s myriad security challenges. On Iran, he has said the country’s nuclear program must be curbed, militarily if necessary, but that regime change in Tehran is “not an achievable goal.”

No party in Israel’s history has won an outright election majority, requiring often long periods of coalition negotiations. President Isaac Herzog will nominate the presumptive prime minister based on the vote count and party recommendations.

Polling stations in parts of Tel Aviv were packed on Tuesday, with lines snaking through schools — where many of the booths have been set up — and spilling into streets. Some of the political parties set up stands blaring out music, and handed out balloons, sweets and stickers to voters and their children.

Beyond national security, voters cast ballots on a set of domestic issues — including whether to draft ultra-Orthodox young men into the army. The power of the Supreme Court and judicial system, which Netanyahu has sought to undermine, transparency and corruption are also on the agenda.

For Palestinians in Gaza and the occupied West Bank, where violence by Jewish settlers on Arabs has soared since the Hamas incursion, the election is unlikely to lead to any immediate changes. Like Netanyahu, Eisenkot has ruled out a two-state solution, saying it would threaten Israel’s security, though he’s condemned the government for supporting Israelis who have attacked Palestinians.