Harry Kane is the odds-on favourite to win the 2026 men’s Ballon d’Or, which could be one of the tightest results in recent history.
England captain and Bayern Munich striker Kane is the bookmakers' favourite to become the first Englishman to win the award since Michael Owen in 2001.
Victory would see Kane become just the fifth English winner of the Ballon d'Or after Sir Stanley Matthews, Sir Bobby Charlton, Kevin Keegan and Owen, while he would also become the first Bayern player to claim it in 45 years.
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When asked after Bayern's Champions League draw against Arsenal last Wednesday about winning the Ballon d'Or, Kane told Sky Sports News: "It'd be incredible if I do. It'd be special for sure. I'd love to win it, but we will have to wait and see. A big night, but I'm not getting carried away."
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Kane's caution comes due to stiff competition from LaLiga duo Lamine Yamal and Kylian Mbappe.
Spain World Cup winner and Barcelona forward Lamine Yamal, who is 14 years Kane's junior at the age of 19, is aiming to become the youngest-ever Ballon d'Or winner - an award he has been campaigning for.
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"Being completely honest, it's not just this year I've been at a Ballon d'Or [winning] level, but longer," he told The Guardian in September, having also appeared to dismiss Kane's credentials earlier that month in a Spanish interview.
Lamine Yamal had been the bookmakers' closest challenger to Kane for the award, but a late surge in the betting means Real Madrid striker and France captain Kylian Mbappe is now second-favourite behind Kane.
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A first-time winner looks set to win the award on Monday night, with Kane eyeing a poetic victory in London, where the ceremony is being held to pay tribute to inaugural winner Matthews.
Here, Sky Sports assesses Kane, Lamine Yamal and Mbappe's stats, and hears the pundits' views on who should win the 70th edition of the Ballon d'Or…
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The honours…
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It is important to note that players are judged for their performances over the entirety of last season from August 3, 2025 until July 19, 2026.
Looking at that period domestically, Kane helped Bayern to lift the Bundesliga and the German Cup, while Lamine Yamal won LaLiga but missed out on the Copa del Rey as both players won their respective Super Cups.
But Mbappe failed to win a trophy with either Real Madrid or France last season.
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In Europe, Kane went further than Lamine Yamal and Mbappe as Bayern reached the Champions League semi-finals after a thrilling 6-5 last-four aggregate defeat to eventual winners Paris Saint-Germain.
Lamine Yamal's Barcelona and Mbappe's Real Madrid both exited the tournament in the quarter-finals.
But Lamine Yamal enjoyed the ultimate success with his country as he helped Spain earn World Cup glory in the summer, while Kane and England won the bronze medal after beating Mbappe's France in the third-place play-off.
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The stats…
The goal statistics are what make Kane the favourite for the award.
He hit an astonishing 73 goals for club and country last season, while Mbappe fired in 58 and Lamine Yamal scored 25 goals.
Kane's goal-laden campaign led to the ex-Tottenham striker picking up the Golden Shoe, the award for Europe's leading goal scorer, for a second time after he claimed it in 2023/24 in his debut Bayern season.
Kane hit 61 goals for Bayern across all competitions last season, 19 more than any other player in Europe's big-five leagues. In fact, it was the most by a player in a season since Cristiano Ronaldo scored 61 for Real Madrid in 2014/15.
Kane also scored 12 goals for England, with his six goals in the Three Lions' 2026 World Cup semi-final run seeing him become England's all-time leading World Cup scorer.
But Mbappe scored more goals than Kane at the World Cup and in last season's Champions League.
The ex-PSG forward won this year's World Cup Golden Boot with 10 goals - the most by a player in a single edition since Gerd Muller scored 10 in 1970 for West Germany.
The 27-year-old is now the all-time scorer in World Cup history with 22 goals.
At club level last season, Mbappe was the top goal scorer in LaLiga (25 goals) and in the Champions League, despite Real's last-eight exit, as he scored 15 goals - one more than Kane.
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It was a quiet World Cup for Lamine Yamal, scoring only once in Spain's run to glory as team-mates Rodri and Pau Cubarsi picked up the player of the tournament and young player award, respectively.
Lamine Yamal, however, came into his first World Cup off the back of a hamstring injury which had initially led to doubts whether he would even play in the tournament.
Lamine Yamal picked up the injury in mid-April while playing for Barcelona, and he missed the remainder of the season before making his return as a substitute in Spain's goalless draw in their World Cup opener against Cape Verde on June 15, with his first start coming six days later as he scored Spain's first in their win over Saudi Arabia.
Despite his disrupted preparation for the tournament, he made the most dribbles both at the World Cup (58) and across Europe's top-five leagues (265) during the 2025/26 season.
Where Lamine Yamal is superior to Kane and Mbappe is in the assist column.
The winger provided 20 assists for club and country last season, while Mbappe had 13 and Kane had just eight.
It takes Lamine Yamal's goal involvements to 45, but that figure is not close to Kane's 81 and Mbappe's 71.
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The pundits have their say...
Jamie Carragher: "Kane should win the Ballon d'Or and the reason is because he's scored 73 goals in a season and only Lionel Messi has scored more in a season.
"He also won the double with Bayern Munich and was part of an England team that got to the World Cup semi-finals."
Paul Merson: "It's such a hard one because Kane's scored a million goals and has been phenomenal, but Lamine Yamal's been phenomenal too and he's won the World Cup.
"But I'm hoping Kane because Lamine Yamal's going to win it three to five times in years to come, so I'd like Kane to win - and it's in London, which ticks another box.
"So I'd just go with Kane, but I wouldn't be shocked if it wasn't him."
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Tim Sherwood: "Kane should win the Ballon d'Or - and I'm not being biased. I think he's had an unbelievable season with the amount of goals he's scored for Bayern Munich.
"There's a lot of pressure playing for big club like Bayern, but he never feels the pressure and he continues to score for England. If he doesn't win it now, then he never will."
Sue Smith: "Kane has got to win the Ballon d'Or. He's been absolutely brilliant. His goals, his movement, the way he drops into the No.10, the ability he's got and he's been outstandingly consistency."
Michael Dawson: "I believe it should be Kane. I'm probably slightly biased as I was lucky to play with him. The goals and everything he's given in the last year, he has to be the winner but Lamine Yamal is the guy he has to beat."
Clinton Morrison: "Kane should win because he's had a fantastic season at Bayern Munich and he leads England by example. Lamine Yamal and Michael Olise could dominate for years to come, but Kane thoroughly deserves it this year."
A third year in a row for a first-time winner?
Should Kane, Mbappe or Lamine Yamal be crowned the Ballon d'Or winner, it will be a third year running a new name has been awarded the gong after years of Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo dominance.
Take a look at the previous winners below, as well as other historical stats from the award's history...
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The men's Ballon dO'r shortlist in full...
Jude Bellingham - Real Madrid & England
Pau Cubarsi - Barcelona & Spain
Marc Cucurella - Chelsea/Real Madrid & Spain
Ousmane Dembele - PSG & France
Luis Diaz - Bayern Munich & Colombia
Bruno Fernandes - Man Utd & Portugal
Gabriel - Arsenal & Brazil
Erling Haaland - Man City & Norway
Achraf Hakimi - PSG & Morocco
Harry Kane - Bayern Munich & England
Kvicha Kvaratskhelia - PSG & Georgia
Lamine Yamal - Barcelona & Spain
Sadio Mane - Al Nassr & Senegal
Marquinhos - PSG & Brazil
Lautaro Martinez - Inter & Argentina
Kylian Mbappe - Real Madrid & France
Nuno Mendes - PSG & Portugal
Lionel Messi - Inter Miami & Argentina
Joao Neves - PSG & Portugal
Michael Olise - Bayern Munich & France
Willian Pacho - PSG & Ecuador
Julian Quinones - Al Qadsiah & Mexico
Declan Rice - Arsenal & England
Rodri - Man City/Barcelona & Spain
Fabian Ruiz - PSG & Spain
William Saliba - Arsenal & France
Ferran Torres - Barcelona/PSG & Spain
Dayot Upamecano - Bayern Munich & France
Vinicius Jr - Real Madrid & Brazil
Vitinha - PSG & Portugal