College football Week 9 prediction market picks back Ohio State, Utah, Nebraska and Louisiana Tech as favorites, while Wisconsin and Northwestern carry the strongest upset cases on a Halloween slate full of quarterback uncertainty.
No. 20 Northwestern heads to Eugene as an underdog against an Oregon team that fired its offensive coordinator after a 21-10 loss at Illinois and announced Monday that quarterback Dante Moore won’t return this season. Ohio State and Washington also haven’t named starting quarterbacks.
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Wisconsin over Iowa
- Saturday, October 31 at noon ET
- Kalshi: 39% WIS, Polymarket: 40% WIS
No. 25 Wisconsin (5-2, 3-1 Big Ten) enters Kinnick Stadium off a 24-7 win over No. 16 USC, the biggest victory of coach Luke Fickell’s tenure, and the Badgers have allowed 9.0 points per game over their last three. Still, Fickell is 0-3 against Iowa, and the Hawkeyes have outscored his teams 94-16 in those meetings.
The fourth-year coach isn’t leaning on his run defense numbers this week. “I don’t want to put too much on our ability to stop the run so far, because it’s going to be a completely different challenge for us to stop the run,” Fickell said.
Iowa (5-2) lost 13-10 at Minnesota on a field goal as time expired after Kirk Ferentz pulled Jeremy Hecklinski for Hank Brown in the second quarter. “You get a blocked punt right off the bat and end up with four turnovers, it’s really unrealistic to think that you’re going to win a conference game doing that,” Ferentz said. Running back Kamari Moulton also left that game with an apparent right arm injury.
Wisconsin leads in opponent-adjusted EPA differential, +0.24 to +0.12, and Iowa’s quarterback shuffle points to a low-scoring game the Badgers can steal.
Pick: 20-17, Wisconsin (Wisconsin +3.5, Over 36.5)
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Louisiana Tech over South Alabama
- Saturday, October 31 at 3 p.m. ET
- Kalshi: 65% LT, Polymarket: 66% LT
Louisiana Tech (5-2, 3-0 Sun Belt) has won four straight and posted back-to-back shutouts for the first time since 1959, beating ULM 24-0 and Old Dominion 26-0. The Bulldogs held the Monarchs to 141 total yards with 13 tackles for loss and six sacks, while quarterback Blake Baker completed 28 of 34 passes for 303 yards.
South Alabama (4-3, 2-1) scored 52 points against ULM and 56 at Arkansas State, then managed 13 in a 20-13 loss at Marshall, when it converted 4 of 18 third downs. Coach Major Applewhite has called the plays this season, and his offense now faces a defense allowing 132.0 rushing yards per game.
The Jaguars allow 35.5 points and 445.2 yards per game, and Louisiana Tech has given up 10.3 points per game over its last three. The Bulldogs’ defense gives them the edge in Mobile.
Pick: 31-24, Louisiana Tech (Louisiana Tech -5.5, Under 57.5)
Northwestern over Oregon
- Saturday, October 31 at 3:30 p.m. ET
- Kalshi: 39% NU, Polymarket: 40% NU
No. 20 Northwestern (6-1) has won four straight, including a 42-14 rout of Rutgers, and averages 34.8 points and 425.3 yards per game. Oregon (4-3) averages 24.7 points and hasn’t topped 17 in any of its last three games.
The Ducks’ week got worse after the Illinois loss. Dan Lanning fired offensive coordinator Drew Mehringer, and on Monday he announced Moore won’t return from the concussion he suffered against USC on Sept. 26. “For him to be out there on the field for us, that’s not going to happen,” Lanning said. Dylan Raiola and Brock Thomas have split the work since his injury.
Wildcats coach David Braun called Lanning “a flat-out ball coach and a master motivator,” and only Indiana in 2025 and UCLA this season have won at Autzen Stadium since Oregon joined the Big Ten. Still, Northwestern’s offense has been far more productive, and Oregon’s has stalled without Moore.
Pick: 24-20, Northwestern (Northwestern +3.5, Under 47.5)
Utah over Cincinnati
- Saturday, October 31 at 3:45 p.m. ET
- Kalshi: 69% UTAH, Polymarket: 70% UTAH
No. 6 Utah (7-0, 4-0 Big 12) is unbeaten through seven games for the first time since 2010 and has won 13 straight dating to last season. Quarterback Devon Dampier ran for 150 yards and two touchdowns in a 21-13 win over No. 14 Houston, and Morgan Scalley is the first Utah coach to win his first eight games.
Cincinnati (5-2, 2-2) upset No. 8 Texas Tech 37-24 for its first home win over a top-10 team since 2006. JC French IV threw four touchdown passes and Cole Tabb ran for 173 yards as the Bearcats piled up 255 rushing yards. Scalley noted the Bearcats “just beat a top 10 program in the country, Texas Tech, and they’re hosting another one.”
The matchup still favors the Utes. Cincinnati allows 304.0 passing yards per game, 136th nationally, while Utah allows 85.3 rushing yards per game, sixth nationally, which can blunt the Bearcats’ 204.0-yard ground game. Dampier has thrown two interceptions in each of his last two games, the main threat to a comfortable road win.
Pick: 34-23, Utah (Utah -6.5, Over 56.5)
Ohio State over USC
- Saturday, October 31 at 7:30 p.m. ET
- Kalshi: 70% OSU, Polymarket: 70% OSU
No. 2 Ohio State comes off a bye after a 19-15 win at Indiana that cost it quarterback Julian Sayin, who is out indefinitely with an injury to his throwing arm. Coach Ryan Day hasn’t named a starter between true freshman Luke Fahey and Tavien St. Clair, but he expects a fully healthy offensive line and most of his injured defenders back.
The Buckeyes allow 13.4 points and 264.3 yards per game, and they rank fourth in offensive efficiency and seventh defensively. That gives a first-time starter a cushion most teams don’t have.
USC, which entered last week ranked No. 16, scored seven points at Wisconsin, the fewest of the Lincoln Riley era, and has averaged 21.0 points over its last three games. Paul Finebaum said Riley could also have “his biggest win Saturday night,” but the Trojans’ offense hasn’t shown it can carry them against a defense this strong.
Pick: 31-20, Ohio State (Ohio State -6.5, Under 51.5)
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Nebraska over Washington
- Saturday, October 31 at 8 p.m. ET
- Kalshi: 74% NEB, Polymarket: 74% NEB
Nebraska (5-2, 2-2 Big Ten) returns from a bye after fourth-quarter losses to Indiana and Oregon, and it hosts its first Halloween home game since 1998 in a blackout at Memorial Stadium. “You have to have a mindset and week of you better be ready for war, man,” coach Matt Rhule said.
Washington (4-3, 1-3) won 38-26 at Purdue behind Elijah Brown, who threw for 302 yards and three touchdowns but also three interceptions in place of the injured Demond Williams Jr. Jedd Fisch won’t name a starter, and Rhule described the Huskies as a vertical passing offense.
Nebraska allows 99.7 rushing yards per game, and Washington averages 96.7 on the ground, which leaves the Huskies leaning on a quarterback spot still sorting out turnovers. The Huskers may play without safety Jamir Conn and defensive end Anthony Jones Jr., but they average 42.5 points at home, and that scoring supports a two-score win.
Pick: 30-17, Nebraska (Nebraska -7.5, Under 49.5)
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