NBA Week 1 overreactions: Ty Jerome is an All-Star, Luka Doncic eyes MVP, alarm bells for the Heat originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
The first week of the NBA season isn't necessarily a predictive one. Last season, Bennedict Mathurin was one of the league's leading scorers at 31.0 points per game. The Bulls were undefeated and looked like a surprise team. And the Celtics, at 1-3 and with low preseason expectations, were considered a surefire bet to finish the season at the bottom of the standings.
Overreacting to the first week is thus usually a big mistake. It's also very fun. The landscape of the league will shift considerably over the next several months. For now, there are some interesting trends that are worth pointing out. Here are some of the big ones that could hold.
NBA Week 1 overreactions
Petre Thomas/Imagn Images via Reuters Connect
Ty Jerome will be an All-Star
Jerome exploded for 45 points on opening day, much to the surprise of people who weren't paying attention to what he did last year.
That outburst wasn't a total fluke. Jerome quietly averaged 19.7 points per game on electric shooting numbers as a starter for a tanking Grizzlies team that nobody watched at the end of last year. He's taken yet another leap this season, averaging 29.8 points per game through the Grizzlies' 4-0 start.
Jerome always had that funky scoring package and explosive shooting that made him a third-place finisher in Sixth Man of the Year voting for the Cavs in 2025. He's found an even better fit in Memphis, where he can be the primary option. A perpetual green light has allowed him to take and make some audacious 3's. And his quirky floaters have been automatic.
Jerome won Player of the Week honors for his play over the past week. He had his first dud against the Jazz on Monday, shooting just 4-of-15, but his scoring juice long-term is real.
MORE: There were actually signs Ty Jerome could lead the NBA in scoring
Luka Doncic's MVP season is finally here
Doncic has finished top 10 in MVP voting six times, including a fourth-place finish last year. This may be the moment where he proves himself as too good for voters to ignore.
Luka had the game of the season thus far, a 52-point masterpiece against the Jazz that lifted the Lakers to 3-0 and has brought his season average up to a career-high 34.3 points per game. Right now, he is the league's best offensive weapon.
The Lakers rebuilt their team to fit better around Doncic's special gifts, and it looks like that payoff is working thus far. Walker Kessler has been an unbelievable finisher at the rim, converting on a league-leading 82.1 percent of his field goals. Austin Reaves has taken a leap as well, upping his scoring average to 26.7 points per game on a wildly efficient 63.9 percent from the field and 61.5 percent from 3.
This Lakers offense, currently ranked No. 1 in the league, will be impossible to stop. Luka has better shooting and teammates with more gravity that can make his job easier than last year.
After Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace's injuries to the Thunder and slow starts for the Spurs and Nuggets, Los Angeles looks primed for a top three seed in the West. If that happens, Luka's resume may be too good to overlook.
MORE: Timeline, options after Jalen Williams gruesome ankle injury
The Heat are in trouble
When Giannis Antetokounmpo was linked to the Heat in the trade market, there was a concern that Miami would trade away too much of its team in order to acquire him. That is looking very true after the Heat have gone winless through their first four games.
Losses to the Wolves and Pistons were understandable. Getting beat 115-110 by a Hornets team missing Coby White and Kon Knueppel is a much bigger red flag, as was another loss to the Mavericks on Monday, where Miami's defense could do absolutely nothing against Cooper Flagg.
Giannis has delivered on his end. He's averaging 28.5 points, 9.5 rebounds, and 5.0 assists per game. But this resembles much more of his Bucks team than he probably expected. Bam Adebayo has been ineffective as a scorer, occupying the same spots as Giannis and missing his 3's. Andrew Wiggins has been up-and-down as a starter. Klay Thompson's defense is making him a major liability. There isn't enough size on the roster, and Miami has struggled on the glass.
On paper, this team had the ability to be top 10 on both sides of the ball if everything worked right. Instead, all of the fears about Miami are coming true. Giannis will eventually get them to a floor near .500, but these guys look destined for the Play-In Tournament.
LaMelo Ball, Jonathan Kuminga moves were a stroke of genius
The Wolves finally lost in an overtime thriller against the Cavs on Monday, but they have looked great in their 3-1 start. The LaMelo Ball trade was a big risk. Minnesota traded most of their power forward depth in order to get the polarizing point guard. He's had some shot selection issues that plagued him in Charlotte, particularly in the team's loss on Monday. But for the most part, he's been brilliant.
LAMELO BALL MY GOODNESS. https://t.co/rv5L3lCEzk
— Basketball Performances (@NBAPerformances) October 26, 2026
Ball has taken a lot of the ball-handling pressure away from Edwards, forcing defenses to stay honest and allowing Ant to focus more on bucket-getting. Ant has done that in a big way, averaging 33.3 points on the year. In an even better sign for the Wolves, Ball is playing the best defense of his career.
Jonathan Kuminga has played better than expected too, finding ways to address the weaknesses that have plagued him throughout his career. Kuminga has been lights-out as a shooter, hitting 46.7 percent of his 3's. He's finally rebounding the ball, and he's being disruptive with his steals.
The West looks a lot more open than we thought it would. The Wolves are going to be elite on both sides of the ball. They could take that top spot in the conference.
Nikola Jokic's days as an MVP candidate are over
Jokic is averaging 22.3 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 8.7 assists per game over the Nuggets' 1-2 start to the season. For anyone else in the league, that would be a career year. For Jokic, it represents a significant decline from his MVP peak.
Jokic's issues started in the middle of last season, when injuries to his knee and wrist limited him to 65 regular season games. He didn't look quite like himself in Denver's first-round loss to the Wolves, and that has continued through the start of this year. Those wrist issues look like they're affecting his 3-pointer, and his normally automatic floater has been off.
Jokic is still easily a top 10 player in the league. The Nuggets need him to be No. 1 or 2 in order to have any realistic hope of being a championship contender. With him playing at his current level, they've been blown out by a bad Warriors team, lost to the Thunder, and needed overtime to beat a Pelicans team that will likely be at the bottom of the West. He no longer looks like a guy who can carry mediocre talent deep into the playoffs.
Stephen Curry is playing in a lost season
Curry still has plenty of gas left in the tank. He's averaging 23.7 points on 52.6 percent from the field and 40.0 percent from 3 through Monday's games. But he can't do it alone, particularly as he manages a right knee that has already kept him out of one contest.
Yaxel Lendeborg is doing his best. The rookie scored 31 points and grabbed 12 rebounds in a surprising win over the Nuggets on Monday. Lendeborg's defense has been an issue though, with Steve Kerr calling his weak-side awareness "very poor."
The Warriors do have some options on the table. Kristaps Porzingis, whose status for the season is in doubt, is a trade candidate. Golden State has two picks that it could pair alongside Porzingis' salary. But the Warriors seem resigned to keeping those picks and punting on doing anything meaningful this year.
MORE: Three center targets Golden State may target as they shop Porzingas
The other option, to trade Curry, is off the table after he signed his veteran extension. He's ineligible to be moved until March 25, 2027, after this year's trade deadline. Aside from the still-brilliant play of Curry and promising signs from Lendeborg, this looks like it could be a long year in Golden State.