Could US midterms reshape Pakistan’s relationship with Washington?

Islamabad, Pakistan – Addressing a mixed crowd of the diaspora and policy experts in New York late in September, Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar was asked about challenges in New Delhi’s relationship with the United States under President Donald Trump.

“Well, I think if I stand back and look at the relationship … I note that much of the world has had a more difficult relationship with the US,” Jaishankar responded.

Pakistan – perhaps uncomfortably for rival India – is an exception.

Trump’s tumultuous second term has seen him rock the global economy with tariffs and the Iran war, upend decades of trust with traditional US allies, and attempt to shred international law and the institutions that govern it. From Europe to the Middle East to East Asia, allies that counted on a US security umbrella are scrambling to build alternative partnerships, unable to rely on Washington for help if they are attacked. Leaders of nations that have been staunch US supporters have instead found themselves targeted – often personally – by Trump.

Yet amid this churn, Pakistan has managed to turn what was a deeply troubled relationship with the US into a partnership that Trump repeatedly touts, even as the government in Islamabad has faced mounting criticism domestically over allegations that it is crushing political opposition and entrenching military rule in all but name.

As the US holds its midterm elections on November 3, with the power in the House of Representatives and Senate at stake, Pakistan is one country that will prefer success for Trump and his Republican Party, which at present is expected to lose critical seats in both chambers.

“The prime minister of Pakistan – terrific man – said that Donald Trump was responsible for saving 30 million lives and probably many more than that,” the US president said, addressing the United Nations General Assembly in September, referring to Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif – and to a war that appears to have endeared Islamabad to Trump.

A closer relationship

After decades of strong ties, US-Pakistan relations had plummeted in recent years, as successive US presidents built close ties with rival India, and Islamabad was seen in Washington as duplicitous over its role in supporting both the US and, at the time, the Afghan Taliban.

As presidents, Trump in his first term and then Joe Biden used harsh words to describe Pakistan.

But two months into his second term, in March 2025, Trump thanked Pakistan in his address to Congress for helping arrest a suspect in the 2021 Abbey Gate bombing at Kabul airport.

Then, in May, came a major turning point. India and Pakistan fought an intense, four-day war after armed fighters killed 26 tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir. The war ended in a ceasefire on May 10. Trump announced it first, and Pakistan thanked him for mediating it, but India rejects his account, insisting that the war was ended through bilateral talks.

Since then, Pakistan’s top leadership has been welcomed at the White House, tariffs on its exports have been cut, and Islamabad has mediated between Washington and Tehran in their ongoing war.

Trump hosted Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, for lunch at the White House – the first time for a Pakistani army chief who is not the country’s president. Trump has described Munir as his “favourite field marshal”.

Pakistan also nominated Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize. On October 9, the day the Nobel Peace Prize was announced for South African jurist Navi Pillay, Sharif posted on X: “President Donald Trump played a historic role in advancing peace in South Asia. His timely intervention helped bring Pakistan and India back from the brink and secure a ceasefire, that is holding till today.”

Analysts say Islamabad’s relevance to Washington extends beyond South Asia.

“Pakistan is now an important player that must be seen within the Middle East security framework,” Qamar Cheema, executive director of the Islamabad-based Sanober Institute, told Al Jazeera.

A trade deal in July 2025 cut US tariffs on Pakistani goods from 29 to 19 percent. Memorandums of understanding with US firms on minerals, cryptocurrency and drones have followed.

Imran Khan, a geopolitical analyst and former Pakistan country director at the United States Institute of Peace, said Islamabad’s closeness to Trump had significantly raised its diplomatic profile.

“But at the same time, you could say that Pakistan has not gained anything directly from the Americans, apart from some intangibles: Its diplomatic profile and its geopolitical relevance,” he told Al Jazeera.

Following the US-Israel attacks on Iran in February, Pakistan brokered a ceasefire between Washington and Tehran on April 8 and hosted the highest-level direct talks between the two sides since 1979.

In June, the US and Iran agreed to the 14-point Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding. “Pakistan was able to bring the United States and Iran under one roof after 47 years,” Cheema said.

But the 60-day period for further talks expired in mid-August without an extension.

Munir returned to Tehran on October 20, his fifth visit since the war began. Iranian officials said they had nothing new to offer Washington. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said threats and military manoeuvres would not influence Iran’s decisions. No breakthrough was announced.

“The Iran war continues to loom large in the Gulf, especially as there are increased indications that the US, possibly again with Israel, will relaunch attacks after their respective elections,” Grace Wermenbol, a former US national security official and senior visiting fellow at the German Marshall Fund, told Al Jazeera. Israel’s elections are scheduled for October 27.

The congressional test

Trump goes into the midterms with historically low popularity numbers. His approval rating stood at 30 percent in a Pew Research Center survey conducted between September 28 and October 4, down from 37 percent in January.

Khan, the analyst, said Democrats would prioritise treaty alliances such as NATO if they won both chambers.

“[In that case], the Senate and the House of Representatives, where the Democrats would have a majority, would lean more towards India than Pakistan,” he said.

Wermenbol, who is also an executive director of the Paris-based advisory firm Boussole Mondiale, said allies and partners were asking whether the midterms could shape US foreign policy in the short term.

In the longer term, she said, the result could foreshadow a change in the White House in 2028 or 2029.

For Pakistan, the question is how to position itself.

Cheema said Pakistan should not shape its approach around whether Trump’s influence grows or weakens. Its strength, he said, lay in its Middle East relevance and role in protecting US interests.

“It is not just a question of Trump’s weakening influence. It is a question of how Pakistan can stay relevant,” he said.

Khan said a weaker Trump might change little in the short term but warned that it could mark the beginning of the end of Pakistan’s current importance.

“But what it does not change is Pakistan’s amplified geopolitical profile globally, and its increasing national security and defence relevance in West Asia,” Khan told Al Jazeera. “That is not going to change whether the Trump administration is strong or weak, or whether Trump is around or not.”