We are officially halfway through the fantasy football regular season, which means roster management needs to become increasingly specific to where your team stands.
If you’re 5-2 or 6-1, you can start thinking beyond the next matchup. Building toward Weeks 15-17, adding high-upside running back handcuffs, and acquiring players whose value could rise before the fantasy playoffs all make sense. If you’re sitting at 2-5 or 3-4, the priority is much simpler: You need points now. Future upside doesn’t matter much if you’re eliminated before it arrives.
That context also matters when making trades. Buying low doesn’t always mean acquiring a struggling player, and selling high doesn’t always mean abandoning someone who just had a good game. The goal is to identify where the market’s perception of a player doesn’t match what I expect going forward.
Here are my favorite fantasy football buys and sells entering Week 8.
QB To Buy: Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
Brock Purdy hasn’t reached 20 fantasy points since Week 3, and he’s now heading into his bye after another underwhelming fantasy performance. Against Atlanta, Purdy threw for 288 yards but finished with only one touchdown and two interceptions.
He has thrown exactly one touchdown in each of his past two games. That’s going to frustrate fantasy managers who saw Purdy produce at an MVP-caliber level early in the season, and the Week 8 bye gives us another reason his manager might be willing to move him.
I don’t think the recent fantasy totals reflect a meaningful decline in Purdy’s play. The 49ers have simply scored more of their touchdowns on the ground recently. Quarterback touchdown distribution is volatile, and I’m not going to assume San Francisco suddenly stops throwing touchdowns because the rushing scores have temporarily gone against Purdy.
The schedule coming out of the bye is exactly what I want. San Francisco gets the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 9 and Dallas Cowboys in Week 10. Las Vegas has allowed at least 27 points in five consecutive games, while Dallas has been one of the more inviting defenses for opposing passing attacks.
There is also a chance Purdy gets Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel back after the bye. Evans missed Week 7 with Achilles tendinitis, but the injury wasn’t considered season-ending, and the Week 8 bye gives him additional recovery time before San Francisco returns against Las Vegas. Samuel has already missed two games with a hamstring strain and now has another two full weeks to recover.
If Purdy’s manager views him closer to where he was drafted, somewhere in that low-QB1 range, I’m buying. I still view him as a top-five fantasy quarterback the rest of the way, and this combination of disappointing fantasy totals and an immediate bye may be the cheapest buying opportunity we’re going to get.
QB To Sell: Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
Matthew Stafford is still playing good real-life football. The problem is that being a good quarterback and a good fantasy quarterback are two very different things.
Stafford has thrown eight touchdowns over his past three games. He went for 383 yards and three touchdowns against Buffalo, followed that with 222 yards and two touchdowns against Arizona, and then threw three more scores against Las Vegas in Week 7.
Despite five passing touchdowns over the past two games alone, Stafford hasn’t reached 19 fantasy points in either one. He threw for only 195 yards against the Raiders, and because he offers essentially nothing as a runner, he needs both substantial passing yardage and multiple touchdowns just to get into QB1 territory.
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That’s the problem with pure pocket passers in modern fantasy football. A rushing quarterback can survive an average passing day by adding 40 or 50 yards on the ground. Stafford needs to win almost entirely through his arm, which raises the bar considerably.
The Rams are also going to be without Davante Adams for an extended period because of a hamstring injury. Adams was leading Los Angeles with 480 receiving yards and had four touchdowns before going down, removing one of Stafford’s best weapons from the offense.
I think Stafford settles in as a high-end QB2 who can give you 17 or 18 points when the passing touchdowns cooperate. If someone in your league is still valuing him based on his name, his real-life ability, or last season’s production, I’d rather trade him for help at running back or wide receiver and stream the quarterback position.
The replacement doesn’t need to be remotely as good as Stafford in real life. That’s the entire point. If a waiver-wire quarterback can get reasonably close to Stafford’s fantasy output while the player you acquire becomes a weekly starter elsewhere in your lineup, you’ve improved your team.
RB To Buy: Jordan Mason, Minnesota Vikings
Jordan Mason returned from injured reserve in Week 7 and immediately handled 15 carries for 68 yards. The fantasy result wasn’t exciting because he didn’t catch a pass or score a touchdown, but the workload was far more important than the box score.
Minnesota didn’t ease him back into a minor role after his hand injury. Mason immediately handled the most carries in the Vikings’ backfield and averaged 4.5 yards per attempt.
Meanwhile, Aaron Jones has been playing through a knee issue for much of the season and aggravated it again against Indianapolis. Jones left after a 17-yard run in the fourth quarter, and the Vikings are currently calling him day-to-day.
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Jones is also 31 years old, and Minnesota clearly entered the season intending for Mason to handle a meaningful portion of the rushing workload. We saw what happened while Mason was sidelined: The Vikings leaned heavily on Jones because they didn’t trust the backs behind him. Mason’s return gives them another player they are comfortable featuring.
The upcoming schedule doesn’t necessarily provide the traditional positive game scripts we want from a running back. Minnesota’s next stretch includes Detroit, Buffalo, Green Bay, San Francisco, Atlanta, Carolina, New England, and Detroit again. There aren’t many games in there where I’m expecting the Vikings to get ahead by three touchdowns and spend an entire second half killing the clock.
There should, however, be plenty of offensive volume. Minnesota is going to have to score against those teams, and Mason should be heavily involved if Jones misses time or simply sees his workload reduced while managing the knee injury.
Mason’s Week 7 fantasy points understated how encouraging his return actually was. If his manager sees 6.8 PPR points and thinks this is still going to be an annoying committee, I’m interested in buying before his role has a chance to grow.
RB To Sell: Tony Pollard, Tennessee Titans
Tony Pollard gave fantasy managers the biggest performance of Week 7, rushing 25 times for 129 yards and three touchdowns while catching three passes for another 26 yards. The result was 36.5 fantasy points.
For context, Pollard had scored 39.4 fantasy points over the entire previous month. He nearly matched four weeks of production in one afternoon.
That’s precisely why this is the time to sell.
Pollard hadn’t reached 14 fantasy points in any game before Week 7. Tennessee happened to face Cleveland in a game where the Titans weren’t immediately forced into negative game script, and Tyjae Spears was unavailable. Pollard received a massive workload and scored three rushing touchdowns after entering the game with one touchdown all season.
I don’t think Pollard is a bad running back. He still has some explosiveness, and there is always a chance a trade before the NFL deadline could improve his situation. But I’m not betting on another environment like the one he benefited from against Cleveland.
The schedule also becomes much less accommodating. Tennessee gets Cincinnati before its bye, then Jacksonville, Dallas, Jacksonville again, Washington, and Detroit. Those are generally pass funnel defenses, which is only further exacerbated by how frequently the Titans are likely to be trailing.
That matters because Cam Ward and this offense have struggled to sustain enough scoring opportunities for Pollard to survive on touchdowns. Week 7 was an enormous outlier for an offense that has rarely generated that type of production.
Fantasy managers are reactionary. Someone in your league is going to look at 129 rushing yards, three touchdowns, and 36.5 points and feel better about Pollard today than they did a week ago. That’s the manager I’m trying to find.
I would use Pollard as part of a package to move up at running back rather than assuming the breakout is sustainable. The goal isn’t necessarily to sell him for another player with the same perceived value. It’s to use this spike game to reach a tier of running back that was inaccessible last week.
WR To Buy: Carnell Tate, Tennessee Titans
The same Tennessee offense that makes Pollard a sell creates a buying opportunity with Carnell Tate.
That’s because the game scripts that hurt a running back can help a receiver. The Titans are going to be forced to throw the football, and Tate has established himself as the clear receiver I want from this offense.
Tate caught five passes for 69 yards against Cleveland in Week 7, giving him 34 receptions for 413 yards through seven games. He has drawn at least seven targets in four of his past five games, which is meaningful volume in a passing attack that hasn’t generated much overall production.
The problem is obviously Ward. He has topped 200 passing yards only once all season, when he threw for 221 against Baltimore in Week 4. There simply hasn’t been much passing yardage available for anyone in Tennessee.
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Tate has still managed games of 145, 70, 69, and 58 receiving yards because he is earning such a significant percentage of the available work. The rookie has already made it clear he’s a good NFL receiver, and talent matters when trying to identify players who can outperform a bad offensive environment.
The schedule that worries me for Pollard works in Tate’s favor. Jacksonville, Dallas, Washington, and Detroit are all opponents that can push Tennessee toward more passing volume. Ward doesn’t suddenly need to become an elite quarterback. He just needs enough attempts for Tate’s target share to produce.
We’ve seen bad quarterbacks generate useful fantasy receivers through volume before. A passer can throw for 250 yards while playing objectively poor football, especially when his team is trailing and has no choice but to keep putting the ball in the air.
I have Tate firmly in WR2 territory going forward. Wide receiver gets uncomfortable very quickly once you move beyond the elite names, and a talented player with a secure target share is exactly the type of profile I’m willing to buy despite the offense around him.
WR To Sell: A.J. Brown, New England Patriots
I had A.J. Brown as a sell last week, and nothing that happened in Week 7 changed my mind.
Brown caught three passes for 48 yards on six targets against Chicago. That came after a three-catch, 27-yard performance on 10 targets in his return from injured reserve against the Jets. Through three appearances this season, Brown has nine receptions for 101 yards and no touchdowns.
This isn’t a Drake Maye problem. Maye is playing well again, and New England’s offense has been capable of moving the ball and scoring points. I’m concerned about Brown himself.
He is 29 years old and coming off one of the least productive seasons of his career. I don’t see the same consistent separation that made him one of the league’s most difficult receivers to cover, and he has also failed to finish several catchable opportunities since returning.
The ankle injury may still be affecting him. If that’s the explanation, there is obviously a chance Brown improves as he gets healthier. I’m just not willing to value him as if the 2022 or 2023 version is automatically coming back.
Brown also isn’t walking back into an offense where every target has to go through him. New England has been willing to distribute the ball across its running backs and tight ends rather than force-feed one receiver.
This is a sell based almost entirely on name value. There are still fantasy managers who see “A.J. Brown” and think they’re acquiring an elite WR1 at a discount. I don’t think that’s the player we’re dealing with anymore.
I’m not giving him away. If the best offer treats Brown like a random WR4, there’s no reason to make the trade. But if someone is willing to give me WR3 value, RB2 value, or let me use Brown as part of a package to move into a player I trust more, I’m taking advantage of the reputation while it still carries weight.
TE To Buy: Isaiah Likely, New York Giants
Isaiah Likely is the simplest buy of the week: He had one bad game immediately before his bye.
Likely caught just two passes for 12 yards against Houston, producing 3.2 PPR points. Before that, he had been one of the hottest tight ends in fantasy football.
From Weeks 4-6, Likely caught 24 passes for 259 yards and three touchdowns. He saw 26 targets over that three-game stretch, including 11 receptions for 94 yards and two scores against Washington followed by six catches for 99 yards and a touchdown against New Orleans.
The obvious counterargument is quarterback-related. Those spike games came with Jameis Winston, while J.J. McCarthy is now starting for the Giants. McCarthy has played well enough that I’m not concerned he’s going to suddenly eliminate Likely from the offense, though.
One poor outing with the new quarterback isn’t enough to erase the role Likely established over the first six weeks. The Giants are also on bye in Week 8, creating another out-of-sight, out-of-mind opportunity. A manager trying to win this week may be more willing to move a tight end who can’t help them immediately.
The later schedule has useful spots as well, including Washington and Indianapolis before fantasy playoff matchups with Detroit and Dallas. I’m fully confident Likely remains the player we saw before Week 7 rather than the one who caught two passes against Houston.
If his manager is worried about the quarterback change or simply doesn’t want to carry a tight end through the bye, I’m buying the dip.
No Tight End Sell This Week
I’m not going to manufacture a tight end sell just because the format normally calls for one.
The position doesn’t have enough reliable players to justify moving a good one simply because he scored a lot of fantasy points last week. Several of the Week 7 leaders are players who weren’t widely rostered in the first place, which makes them waiver-wire conversations rather than sell-high candidates.
If you have one of the actual difference-makers at tight end, there usually needs to be a very compelling reason to trade him. This week, I don’t see one. Likely provides a clear buying opportunity after a down game and a bye, but there isn’t an equivalent player whose Week 7 performance has created a sell window I want to exploit.
This article originally appeared on Pro Football Network.