Dan Campbell’s Puzzling Fourth-Down Calls Nearly Cost Lions in Win Over Packers

Since he was hired as the Lions’ head coach in January 2021, Dan Campbell has been known for his willingness to be bold, whether it’s talking about “biting kneecaps” in his introductory press conference or going for it on fourth down.

In Sunday’s win over the Packers, Campbell made a couple of controversial fourth-down decisions that nearly proved costly for Detroit—including going for it on a fourth-and-1 from his own 24-yard line while tied at 17 with 4:53 remaining in the game. As the Lions relish their victory, here are three numbers behind the Lions’ win over the Packers, including those fourth-down decisions. 

0

The number of times the Lions successfully converted on fourth down against the Packers. The Lions failed on both of their fourth-down attempts—the fourth-and-1, as well as a fourth-and-5 from the Packers’ six-yard-line in lieu of a field goal attempt. 

On the fourth-and-1, star running back Jahmyr Gibbs was stopped behind the line of scrimmage by the Packers’ defense. Campbell said of the call, “I thought we would get it, No. 1. I really believed we would get that. No. 2, I knew we would get the ball back if it didn’t work out. Those were the two thoughts.” 

Since the fourth-and-1 was a long one—tracking data had it closer to two yards—the Next Gen Stats model saw the decision to go for it as a “toss-up,” though the conventional move would be to punt and pin the Packers back in their own territory. Per Ryan Paganetti, teams convert on the longer one on around 63% to 64% of tries. Campbell ultimately decided to go for it, entrusting the fact that his offense would get the ball back.

Gibbs acknowledged he was surprised by the decision after the game. “I was like, oh s---,” he said. “But I mean, we could’ve gotten that. ... I was surprised, but when I thought about it I was like, 'Ah, f--- it.”

61.5% 

The Lions’ fourth-down conversion rate this season. Thus far, the Lions have gone 8-of-13 on fourth-down attempts. Per CBS Sports’s Doug Clawson, the Lions rank 31st in fourth-down decision EPA this season. They have previously ranked first in that category in Campbell’s tenure. Perhaps Campbell was feeling extra confident after converting all four of the team’s fourth-down attempts in Detroit’s last game against the Cardinals, but it was not as successful against the Packers’ defense.

Overall, the Lions ranked in the top five in fourth-down attempts and makes from 2021 to ’24. Last season, they ranked top-10 in both categories. They’ve converted on 110-of-195 fourth-down attempts since Campbell took over, a rate of 56.4%. Over the past five seasons, the NFL leader in fourth-down conversion percentage has successfully converted at least 70% of its tries.

7

The number of years it had been since a kicker had missed two field goals of 35 or fewer yards in the same game until Trey Smack did so on Sunday, per Josh Dubow of The Associated Press. It cannot be understated that the Lions were incredibly fortunate that Packers’ rookie kicker did not kick well, missing two of his three kicks. This included a 26-yard attempt and a 35-yard attempt, kicks that are nearly automatic in today’s NFL. Campbell might have felt confident in the decision because the Lions were bound to get the ball back, but they were still only a couple misses away from a much different outcome Sunday.

Five more numbers that defined Week 4 of the NFL season

125

The number of points the Vikings have scored this season, which is tied for the second-fewest by a 6–0 team since 1940, per ESPN’s Kevin Seifert. The only team with fewer points despite an undefeated 6–0 start was the 1978 Rams, who scored 116 points through six games.

Once again, Minnesota defensive coordinator Brian Flores’s defense is flourishing as the offense sputters, including on Sunday, when they managed only 16 points against a Colts defense that had allowed 27.3 points per game. The defense, meanwhile, has not allowed more than 22 points in a game this season, and no more than 16 since Week 1. 

71.4%

J.J. McCarthy’s completion percentage against the Texans on Sunday, a career high for the new Giants’ signal-caller. Much was made about McCarthy making his first start with New York against Houston, but he turned in one of the better performances of his career—particularly in terms of accuracy.

McCarthy has struggled with accuracy throughout his young career, completing only 57.6% of his passes in 10 appearances in 2025. This season, he has done a good job establishing a connection with his new receivers less than a month into his tenure as a Giant.

13

The number of pressures Nik Bonitto recorded in the Broncos’ 30–16 win over the Cardinals. Per Next Gen Stats, this was the most pressures in a game since Nick Bosa in 2024. The Cardinals are certainly feeling the loss of starting left tackle Paris Johnson Jr., who is out for the remainder of the season due to a biceps injury. His replacement, Jayden Williams, gave up 12 of Bonitto’s 13 pressures as quarterback Jacoby Brissett was under heavy duress from one of the league’s best rushers. 

0

The number of times the 49ers have won when trailing by double-digit points in the fourth quarter in the Kyle Shanahan era, per Dubow. In comparison, every NFL team has forged such a comeback at least once in that span. For as good as the 49ers have been under Shanahan—advancing to two Super Bowl appearances and four NFC title games—they have not been great at coming back. On Sunday, they trailed the Falcons 26–14 in the fourth quarter, and though they had opportunities to forge a comeback, they failed to do so, ultimately committing two turnovers and turning the ball over on downs on another drive.

183

The number of yards the Browns rushed for in their 27–24 win over the Titans, a season high. Cleveland has been a weak rushing team early in 2026, ranking only 23rd in EPA per rush (-0.12) and averaging only 94 yards per game entering Sunday (24th). Quinshon Judkins had easily his best game of the season, rushing for 96 yards and two touchdowns while averaging a season-high 5.6 yards per carry. The Browns will look to keep their ground game going when they take on the Steelers next week.