Russia's Northern Sea Route (NSR) could switch to year-round shipping as early as 2027, Vladimir Panov, head of Rosatom's Arctic directorate, said in an interview with Interfax, according to Vedomosti's October 27 report.
"The NSR is one step away from regular eastbound shipping, meaning year-round operations. We expect this to happen as early as 2027, when one of our largest shippers begins regularly shipping its products to Asia," Panov said. He did not name the shipper.
A year-round route would turn the Arctic passage from a summer-autumn window into a standing alternative to the Suez Canal for Russian exports heading to China and India, at a time when Moscow's Western markets are largely closed. State nuclear corporation Rosatom, which is the NSR's infrastructure operator, has been building the icebreaker fleet and convoy system to make that possible, but cargo volumes have lagged the targets. Cargo carried on the route fell 2.3% in 2025 to 37mn tonnes, and Panov told Interfax in June 2025 that the base forecast was around 109mn tonnes by 2030.
Panov said the technology still needed work. Convoys must move faster to raise cargo efficiency, and emergency rescue, communications and medical services along the route need to improve. Russian crews already have the Arctic experience, he said, and Arctic-class ships for NSR work have already been delivered to the customer.
"Today, we're no longer just talking about the NSR: we're talking about creating a Trans-Arctic Transport Corridor, which will include the Northern Sea Route, as well as associated inland waterways, rail routes, and other transport infrastructure," Panov said, adding that the corridor was aimed at developing the Arctic zone and the Far East and at domestic, international and transit traffic along the Russian coast.
Voyages on the route hit a record 133 in September, up 46% from August and more than four times the 2022 level, the Financial Times reported earlier this month, citing Lloyd's List Intelligence data. Almost half the voyages were made by Russian-flagged ships. Shippers' interest has grown as Arctic ice cover thins and as shipping is disrupted in the Middle East, the Red Sea and other chokepoints, the paper said.
Rosneft loaded the first Vostok Oil crude at the Sever Bay terminal on the Taimyr peninsula in September, and India plans to send its first cargo ship through the route in 2027.