US consumer sentiment near record low ahead of elections

US consumer sentiment edged down to near a record low in October as rising prices because of the Middle East conflict ​soured households’ views of the economy on the doorstep of midterm congressional elections centering on affordability issues, a survey showed recently.

The University ‌of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers said its Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 48.0 this month from a final reading of 48.1 in September. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index at 46.3, which had also been the index’s preliminary reading for October.

October’s reading marked the second-lowest on record after the all-time low of 44.8 set in May, not long after the Iran war began.

“Purchasing power ​continues to dominate consumer views of the economy,” said Joanne Hsu, the director of the Surveys of Consumers. 

“Sentiment is now 10 percent below a year ago ​and 15 percent less than February, just prior to the Iran conflict.”

The survey results dovetail with political polling data showing voters have a dim view of the economy and President Donald Trump’s and the Republican Party’s stewardship over it.

Millions of US voters have already cast early ballots in the ​fast-approaching November 3 midterm election that will determine control of Congress over the final two years of Trump’s term. Polls show Republicans are likely to lose control of the ​House of Representatives and possibly the Senate as Trump’s approval rating in a Reuters/Ipsos poll sits at a record low thanks to the skyrocketing fuel prices unleashed by his decision to attack Iran in late February.

University of Michigan data broken down by political party affiliation showed the weaker sentiment was led by survey respondents self-identified as independents, who comprise a critical bloc of swing voters. Their ​sentiment score dropped to 42.4 — just above May’s record-low 40.6 — from 47.7 in September, while scores for Democrats and Republicans improved.

The survey showed a significant upswing this ​year among independents — and also notably Republicans — citing high prices as a drag on their personal finances. Since January, the number of independents referencing inflation pressures as hurting their financial situation rose ‌by 27 percent, ⁠while it has shot up by 52 percent among Republicans. Similar citations among Democrats, meanwhile, are up by 15 percent.

Households with no or limited exposure to the stock market — until recently climbing rapidly on enthusiasm for the artificial intelligence investment boom — also have cited high prices as a drag on their finances more frequently than at the start of the year.

STICKY INFLATION EXPECTATIONS

The survey’s measure of consumer expectations for inflation over the next year nudged up to 4.7 percent from 4.6 percent in September. Twelve-month inflation expectations have surged from ​3.4 percent in February before the US-Israeli war ​with Iran started.

Consumers’ expectations for inflation ⁠over the next five years rose to 3.5 percent from 3.4 percent in September and 3.2 percent in March, just after the war’s start.

Hsu, in an accompanying report on inflation expectations released with the October sentiment survey, said the persistence of elevated inflation expectations in ​the post-Covid-19 pandemic era posed a risk for Federal Reserve policymakers’ efforts to return inflation to their 2 percent target — unachieved ​now for more than ⁠five years.

“Consumers broadly expect inflation to accelerate, and this year’s increases in inflation expectations are not limited to one part of the political spectrum,” Hsu wrote. 

“The fact that aggregate consumer spending has been relatively resilient despite negative views of the economy provides another reason for caution. If part of consumption currently reflects precautionary spending to avoid future price hikes, disinflation ⁠may be even ​more difficult to achieve.”

Fed officials meet next week in Washington, and despite recent higher-than-expected inflation readings ​in the last two weeks they are broadly expected to leave their policy interest rate unchanged at 3.75 percent-4.00 percent after raising it by a quarter percentage point in September. Most Fed officials have indicated they see ​a need for higher rates, but key leaders also have expressed a willingness to wait for more data before their next move.