Midterm elections are just days away, and it’s not looking good for the GOP. Prediction markets strongly favor Democrats, with both Kalshi and Polymarket pointing to a Democratic sweep of both chambers.
“If you happen to be a Republican or conservative, it's been kind of cloudy weather, right?” BlazeTV host Stu Burguiere acknowledges.
“You can say you don't believe prediction markets. You can say you don't believe the news. All that's totally up to you. One thing that is believable, though, is where Republicans are putting their money,” he continues, “and right now, Republicans are putting their money in states like Mississippi, South Carolina, Nebraska, Kansas, Texas.”
Based on where the funding is going, the GOP, Stu argues, has “given up on states like North Carolina and Georgia,” where both Senate races favor Democrats by over 90%.
But other states, he says, seem to be going from “horrible news to less bad news.”
Displaying recent data from YouGov showing that the Democratic lead has narrowed from its September peak, Stu says that Republicans, who have been “not as passionate” as Democrats in this election, are starting to gain interest again.
“As you get closer to a race, as you come out of Labor Day, as you get out of the summer stuff, your kids go back to school, you start focusing on the election again. You start seeing a hundred million dollars of ads; all of a sudden you go from, ‘I don't really care about this election’ to, ‘You know what, I actually kind of do care about this election, and now I am going to make sure I get out and vote,”’ he explains.
Citing more YouGov data, he continues, “85% of Democrats said they were sure to vote. That has risen to 87. ... Republicans have seen a much more dramatic gain there. They were at 70% and have risen all the way to 80%, so they have closed the gap from about 15 points to seven in that time period of about a month.”
“That is very good news for Republicans and Republican candidates, if this holds true.”
Even though trends are looking more positive for the GOP, Stu is by no means celebrating.
“What the truth here is that while there is a narrowing, the narrowing doesn't mean you're going to see massive gains for Republicans in the House and Senate. I don't think that's going to happen at all,” he says soberly.
To hear more of Stu’s prediction market breakdown, watch the episode above.
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