(CNS): Long-term drought might possibly develop or continue in Grand Cayman, according to regional forecasters looking ahead to conditions at the end of November and into 2027.
None of the three Cayman Islands was on the short-term drought watch list compiled by the Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF), though drought watches and drought warnings were issued for many Eastern and Central Caribbean islands.
A Cayman Islands National Weather Service flood advisory remains in place for Grand Cayman, but it has been lifted for the Sister Islands. Despite the flooding, this year’s wet season continues to be well below average, and the CINWS predicts that the total rainfall between September and the end of November will be more than 70% below average.
According to a new report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), 2026 continues the protracted streak of exceptional global temperatures, melting ice and rising sea levels, with a very strong El Niño event set to unleash even more heat and extreme weather well into 2027.
The WMO report, “The State of the Climate Update 2026”, shows that the past twelve years have individually been the warmest on record, with the past four years being the top four.
The global average surface temperature for January–September 2026 was about 1.47 °Celsius above the pre-industrial average. This figure is likely to rise through the end of the year because of the warming effect of El Niño, which has been intensifying since August and is expected to be the strongest on record by December.
According to the WMO, Earth’s energy imbalance is rising, and the Earth system is accumulating heat at an accelerating rate. The imbalance reached its highest level since monitoring began, as greenhouse gases trap unprecedented amounts of heat and upset the equilibrium between incoming energy from the sun and outgoing energy.
The ocean absorbs 90% of this excess heat, and 2026 is on track to be the tenth successive year of record ocean warmth.
Sea level is the highest on record, and sea-surface temperatures hit monthly records during 2026, the WMO noted. The long-term retreat of glaciers continues, and climatologists said the annual mass loss of ice in 2025 would have filled five Olympic pools every second of the year. Freshwater storage has been dwindling since 2014.
“We have entered a new age of climate extremes. A supersized El Niño is colliding with a planet already superheated by manmade climate change. Climate records keep falling. The human costs keep rising,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres. “And those least responsible are suffering first and worst.
“Leaders must get serious by cutting emissions faster, accelerating a just transition from fossil fuels and delivering the finance and protection vulnerable countries need,” he added.
Although the El Niño phenomenon has pulled the Caribbean region through a quiet and virtually stormless hurricane season, it is likely to bring hotter, drier weather over the next few months during what is usually the coolest time of the year in the region.
In its Friday forecast, the CINWS is predicting more showers over the coming week, as an approaching pre-frontal trough and associated frontal boundary that has entered the northwest Caribbean is making scattered showers with thunder very possible.
Improvement will occur gradually on Saturday, forecasters said, resulting in partly cloudy skies, though occasional showers can still occur as some moisture lingers. And even with the atmosphere on a drying trend, the lingering moisture will still produce periods of rain over the weekend. More rain is predicted early next week.
See more in the Caribbean Outlook Report or on the CINWS site.