ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 25, 2026

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• Ukrainian forces are making slow but tactically significant gains in the Oleksandrivka direction that may later threaten Russian logistics and efforts in the Oleksandrivka and Hulyaipole directions over the long term.
• Ukraine had a slightly lower but still relatively high interception rate of Russian jet-powered drones during the Starshield restrictions in mid-October 2026, but will need innovative jet-powered interceptors to work to sustain and improve these interception rates over the long term.
• Russian forces recently advanced in the Novopavlivka direction.
• Ukrainian forces conducted a series of long-range strikes against industrial facilities in Russia. Russian forces conducted several high-casualty strikes on October 24 and 25, including in western Ukraine.

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