S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) and Kalshi have announced that they will tie official index values to new event contracts.
They also plan to build benchmarks tracking politics, economics and sports, lending the prediction market Wall Street’s credibility as several states fight to shut parts of it down.
Kalshi co-founder and CEO Tarek Mansour wrote on X that S&P Dow Jones Indices and Kalshi have “joined forces to build the next generation of financial markets.”
Mansour invoked the 1896 debut of the Dow and the S&P 500’s 1957 launch as the lineage he wants to join. However, the foundation under that pitch, though, is being contested in courtrooms across the country.
What did S&P DJI and Kalshi actually agree to?
Under the deal that was announced on Monday, October 26, Kalshi becomes a preferred platform licensed to list event contracts that are tied to S&P DJI.
Also, the deal makes the index provider the preferred source for building indices out of Kalshi’s trading data per the announcement.
Future Kalshi contracts will settle against the official index values that professional traders already reference.
Mansour said, “Kalshi’s aspiration is to be the next great financial exchange.” He also added that “S&P DJI is the gold standard for benchmarks. Bringing that standard to Kalshi is an important step toward accelerating retail and institutional demand.”
Cathy Clay, CEO of S&P Dow Jones Indices, said the arrangement pushes the firm’s benchmark business “into one of the fastest-growing categories in financial markets.”
There is a limit printed in the fine print. The release states that Kalshi’s S&P-linked contracts are not sponsored or endorsed by S&P DJI, which disclaims liability for any index errors or interruptions.
A business several states call illegal gambling
Kalshi is the largest prediction market platform by volume, leading by over 81% as of October. So far, there is no sign that its momentum is cooling. As of October 18, its weekly volume hit a record $21.5 billion, with trades crossing 100 million for the first time.
The company has logged more than $329.5 billion in cumulative volume this year per The Block’s data.
It has also seen an increase in distribution channels, with crypto wallet Phantom being one of the latest platforms to add Kalshi-powered events on its platform.
However, despite its success on these fronts, Kalshi is still battling various lawsuits across multiple states in the US.
New York Governor Kathy Hochul and Attorney General Letitia James sued KalshiEX, LLC on July 31, calling it an unlicensed gambling operation that exposes residents, including people under 21, to financial risk.
James said, “No matter what they call themselves, prediction markets like Kalshi are gambling platforms, plain and simple.”
Connecticut Attorney General William Tong filed a similar suit over sports contracts, while Utah then went further, suing five Kalshi entities and two Susquehanna trading firms and estimating the platform collected between $30.6 million and $61.2 million in fees from state accounts.
Kalshi says it runs a CFTC-regulated contract market, which means that it follows federal regulations, and it says that federal rules preempt state gambling laws. The CFTC has largely supported its position and is also in some of these lawsuits against the states.
Courts have split, with the Third Circuit siding with Kalshi and the Ninth and Sixth Circuits backing states.
Wall Street keeps buying in anyway
The S&P DJI deal fits a pattern of established finance wading into event markets. Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), which owns the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), committed up to $2 billion to rival Polymarket in October 2025.
Nasdaq partnered with Kalshi on market surveillance. CME Group, meanwhile, is fighting Kalshi in federal court and before regulators over its perpetual contracts even as its own prediction venture shrinks, Cryptopolitan reported.
The prize is large, as Artemis data as of October 21 put trailing-year prediction-market volume at $394.2 billion, with Kalshi accounting for $309.8 billion.
Don’t just read crypto news. Understand it. Subscribe to our newsletter. It's free.