Iranians will their eyes on the sky for bomb when Israeli, US elections end

The US and Israel have teased strikes around their elections, particularly against Iran’s civilian infrastructure.

Israelis have gone to the polls to decide whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will remain in power. On November 3, midterm elections in the United States will take place and likely impact President Donald Trump’s final years in office.

Many Iranians are watching both elections closely, knowing that the way Israelis and Americans vote could have serious consequences for their future. Since Israel and the US launched an unprovoked war on Iran on February 28, Iranians have experienced bombings, a blockade and sanctions.

But despite a sharp decrease in US and Israeli attacks since a memorandum of understanding was reached between Washington and Tehran in June, the threat of war has re-emerged. Many political commentators believe that the US and Israel could restart the war after the elections, and Iranians are anticipating further strikes.

“I haven’t followed the Israeli election very closely. But I think there will be more fighting whether Netanyahu wins or Eisenkot or someone else,” 37-year-old Tehran resident Sajad told Al Jazeera, asking to remain anonymous due to security reasons.

He believes that the rhetoric of Israeli officials signals that their ambition in the war is still for the overthrow of the Islamic Republic, which has controlled Iran since a 1979 revolution.

This has gained some support from Iranians inside and outside the country, who are opposed to the government. But cyber intelligence operations by both Israel and Iran make it difficult to accurately gauge online reactions to the prospect of Netanyahu winning another election.

Iranian authorities have described pro-Israeli Iranians as “homeland sellers” and continue to severely punish any perceived cooperation with Israel based on national security charges.

They also fully blame the US and Israel for Iran’s nationwide protests in January, during which thousands of civilians are believed to have been killed. The United Nations says Iranian security forces committed crimes against humanity while cracking down on the protests.

Shayan, a 32-year-old Tehran resident, said he believes that any Iranians who might have hoped for the overthrow of the government at the start of the war are disillusioned after witnessing US and Israeli conduct since then, with thousands of civilians killed and the US blockade and sanctions hitting most people’s incomes.

“I think some people’s viewpoints adjusted after some of the comments from the US and Israel, and after they bombed infrastructure that we need to live, like oil and gas, power and steel,” he told Al Jazeera.

“I think most Iranians don’t have a choice in the matter, but want some stability and peace.”

President Trump has threatened to bring about the “death of a civilisation” in Iran and suggested the country’s map may look different after the war.

He has also repeatedly threatened to launch more major strikes against Iran’s power plants, bridges and other civilian infrastructure if hostilities resume. US media report that the country’s military is prepared to attack over the coming days if an order is given.

The other option Trump has threatened is prolonging a naval blockade of Iran’s southern ports in place since July, which has stopped the country’s oil exports and significantly disrupted trade. Together with some of the most stringent sanctions imposed against any country, the US measures have made Iranians poorer and more isolated from the international community.

The Netanyahu government has also threatened to strike Iranian infrastructure again, including energy facilities. Defence Minister Israel Katz has repeatedly said in recent months that he wants to send Iran “back into the Stone Age”.

His election opponents and other prominent opposition figures, including Eisenkot, Naftali Bennett, Yair Lapid and Yair Golan, have all cheered the US-Israeli attacks on Iran both during the current war and during last year’s 12-day war.

They have also been united in wanting to remove Iran’s enriched uranium stockpiles from Iran and dismantle the country’s nuclear programme. Another goal is eliminating the Tehran-backed “axis of resistance” of armed forces who oppose Israel and the US across the region.

Israeli politicians, both the government and opposition, are generally united on the war aims of overthrowing the Iranian establishment, but differ on the method.

Eisenkot, for instance, has supported Netanyahu’s military strikes against Iran and praised Trump’s decision to launch attacks as courageous. But he also says that military operations cannot realistically overthrow the Islamic Republic, and that change must come from Iranians themselves.

Some Iranians have been mentally preparing themselves for conflict when the elections end.

Some Iranians said they have established groups with friends living in different parts of the country to warn each other of imminent strikes if they hear fighter jets flying overhead.

Some of the groups are in domestic messaging apps or over text message since Iranian authorities have said they will impose more internet and communication shutdowns if deemed necessary.

“In all seriousness, 90 million people have our eyes to the sky to see when there will be war. Damn this life we’ve lived,” a user named Ali wrote on X.