For many cryptocurrency traders and analysts, the sudden late-August rally appeared to be the early arrival of the next digital assets bull market, but subsequent developments appear to have, at least partially, spoiled the enthusiasm.
Indeed, the October plunge that took, for example, Bitcoin (BTC) below $80,000 once again triggered discussion of whether BTC itself might record new lows before the start of 2027, rather than surging toward $100,000.
Are the U.S. midterm elections about to send Bitcoin below $50,000
A popular trading expert on X, Ali Martinez, detailed the possibility of the world’s premier cryptocurrency suffering a steep plunge during the fourth quarter (Q4) due to a downward trend observable following each of the recent midterm elections already on October 23.
Furthermore, the on-chain analyst resumed such speculation on Monday, October 26, and seemingly raised the possibility of Bitcoin crashing below $50,000 by 2027.
Specifically, Martinez noted how BTC dropped 16.70% in Q4 2014, 42.16% in 2018, and 14.75% in 2022, with the latest drop to $79,618 – below the important $80,000 psychological support threshold – raising the odds of a continued price collapse.
Notably, however, a drop below $50,000 would represent an extreme development since it assumes Bitcoin would collapse as much as it did in 2018, with the other 2026 market movements making such a deep correction far from a certainty.
Q4 2026 COULD BE PAINFUL FOR BITCOIN
— Ali Charts (@alicharts) October 26, 2026
Bitcoin’s Q4 performance during recent U.S. midterm election years has been particularly interesting:
• 2014: -16.70%
• 2018: -42.16%
• 2022: -14.75%$BTC has now posted a negative Q4 in each of the last three midterm election years.
If… https://t.co/arfhewEg74 pic.twitter.com/LZu1OvuTBk
As Martinez himself stated on October 23, BTC’s historical performance was not driven exclusively by the elections, with the broader cycles, investor sentiment, and liquidity conditions also playing important roles.
Why the Bitcoin 42% 2018 Q4 drop remains an important precedent
Still, 2018 remains a concerning precedent. Bitcoin recorded the then-all-time high (ATH) late in 2017 before plunging early next year, seeing a partial recovery during the summer and, finally, recording the final, steep drop in the final quarter.
In late 2025, the world’s premier cryptocurrency recorded the current ATH, saw a significant and protracted drop through the first half (H1) of 2026, recorded a partial recovery in August and September, and faced a new downtrend in October.
Critically, as the on-chain expert also highlighted, ‘correlation does not equal causation.’
Looking forward, the trading expert Ali Martinez forecasted that November 3 will likely trigger a new phase of substantial volatility for BTC and estimated that the make-or-break level for Q4 sits at $73,000 – the average acquisition price of coins held by relatively recent investors.
Featured image via Shutterstock
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