Israel’s election: Five key things to know

Israelis will head to the polls on Tuesday for legislative elections.

The vote, the first since the Hamas-led attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023 and the subsequent genocidal war against Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, is being called one of the most important in its history.

It will determine the direction of Israel’s government as the country remains embroiled in multiple years-long conflicts, faces growing international criticism and grapples with deepening polarisation at home.

Here are five things to know about the upcoming election:

Which are the main parties and what do opinion polls suggest?

Any party clearing an electoral threshold of 3.25 percent enters parliament, whose term lasts four years.

There are two main blocs vying to lead the next government.

The first is the pro-Netanyahu coalition, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party and joined by several far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties. These include United Torah Judaism (UTJ) and Shas – both conservative religious parties – and Otzma Yehudi and Religious Zionism-Zehut, led respectively by far-right ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich.

The main opposition coalition comprises four Jewish-led opposition movements – the Yashar party, led by former Israeli military chief Gadi Eisenkot, the Democrats, led by former deputy military chief of staff Yair Golan, the Yisrael Beiteinu party, led by former Finance Minister Avigdor Lieberman and the Together alliance, led by former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and joined by Knesset opposition leader Yair Lapid.

The latest opinion polls published before a ban on new surveys took effect on Friday showed that neither bloc was on course to secure a parliamentary majority of 61 seats.

A poll by public broadcaster KAN projected that the opposition alliance would win 52 of the Knesset’s 120 seats, compared with 50 for Netanyahu’s bloc, with the remaining seats going to unaffiliated parties, including the country’s two main Arab-majority political lists – Ra’am, also called the United Arab List, and the Joint List, an alliance of Hadash, Balad and Ta’al parties.

However, both the pro-Netanyahu and anti-Netanyahu blocs have effectively ruled out joining forces with the Arab-led parties for now.

The fractured landscape means Israeli parties could be in for tough post-election negotiations to cobble together a governing majority. If those efforts fail, Israel could end up with a minority government reliant on support from parties outside the governing coalition – or potentially head to another round of elections.

What are the key issues?

Israelis are grappling with a series of domestic and international crises this election cycle.

On the domestic front, there is growing demand for accountability for reported security failures, including those leading up to the October 2023 attacks, anger over the growing ultra-Orthodox community’s military exemption and concern over Netanyahu’s repeated efforts to push judicial reforms that critics say undermine Israel’s liberal democratic order.

“The secular and liberal opposition factions in Israel feel this election is the last chance to save Israeli democracy and restore the institutions that have eroded over Netanyahu’s successive terms,” Mairav Zonszein, an Israeli-American commentator who is a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, told Al Jazeera.

A war-weary public is also weighing how Israel should proceed with its multiple military conflicts, with many voters seeking security and economic stability while remaining resistant to perceived concessions in Gaza, the occupied West Bank and Lebanon.

What makes this election so important?

It is Israel’s first election since the October 2023 attacks and comes amid a surge in far-right attitudes and growing divisions over the direction of the country.

“Strains of Israeli society had always been given to violence and right-wing rhetoric, but the trends that had always been present had accelerated under the current government,” prominent Israeli sociologist Yehouda Shenhav-Shahrabani told Al Jazeera.

The election also comes as Israel’s international standing has deteriorated, with a host of Israel’s allies sanctioning its illegal settlements in the occupied West Bank, and many other nations denouncing the country’s continued attacks in Gaza and Lebanon.

When Netanyahu addressed the United Nations General Assembly on September 24, dozens of envoys from around the world walked out, some jeering and booing.

The outcome of the upcoming vote could determine whether Israel’s next government maintains its approach to the international community or seeks to repair ties.

What does it mean for Netanyahu’s political future?

Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister who has led the country for more than 15 of the last 17 years, and a total of 19, faces growing scrutiny at home and abroad over alleged security failures leading up to the October 7 attack, as well as corruption charges he has been battling since 2019.

An electoral defeat would also leave Netanyahu more exposed to his ongoing corruption trial, which could ultimately result in a prison sentence if he is convicted.

A new government could also affect the prospects of a potential commission of inquiry into the October 2023 attacks and Netanyahu’s political standing as he faces an arrest warrant for war crimes issued by the International Criminal Court.

What about Palestinian citizens of Israel?

About 7.3 million Israeli citizens are eligible to vote in Tuesday’s election, including Palestinian citizens of Israel, who number about 1.2 million.

Meanwhile, roughly three million adult Palestinians in Gaza, the occupied West Bank and occupied East Jerusalem have no say in the government that controls their borders, movement and legal status.

Recent polling suggested that the turnout among the Palestinian citizens of Israel could reach 60 percent, with the majority of the votes expected to go the Arab lists, which are the principal representatives of Palestinian citizens of Israel. If turnout reaches 65 percent, these parties could potentially win as many as 15 seats in the Knesset. Campaigners are aiming for 70 percent turnout, which would be the highest in decades and raise the threshold, keeping smaller parties out of parliament.

Last month, Israel’s Central Elections Committee voted to bar the Joint List and Ra’am from the election.

Israel’s top court quickly reversed that decision, enabling the Arab parties to stay in the race. However, the court did force Balad leader Sami Abu Shehadeh to withdraw from the race over an article in which he described the October 7 attacks as “an important historical event”.

The role of Arab parties is going to be significant. Both major coalitions have ruled out joining forces with them for now, but without them, neither coalition might be able to form a majority.

Netanyahu has repeatedly sought to portray his opponents as potential partners of the Arab parties, claiming that an opposition-led government will seek their support and that only his Likud party can prevent this.

Joseph Mansour, a former aide to Israeli Knesset member Ayman Odeh, said politically alienating Arab parties is part of Netanyahu’s political strategy, which could allow him to remain in office as a caretaker prime minister if neither coalition forms a majority.

“If Palestinian-led party support becomes politically toxic and the opposition falls short of 61 seats, the deadlock itself becomes the latest win for Netanyahu,” wrote Mansour for the Arab Center Washington DC.