UPS gears up for peak season with less Amazon volume in tow

As UPS gears up for its first peak season since slashing its Amazon volume in half, the company's push to attract more lucrative customer segments is bearing fruit, executives said during a Q3 earnings call Tuesday.

A little more than 100 of UPS' U.S. customers drive about 80% of the company's peak season volume spike each year, CEO Carol Tomé said. Based on forecasts from those shippers, UPS expects its average daily volume to climb about 25% from Q3 to Q4, in line with what the carrier saw last peak season.

However, Tomé said UPS is expecting its Q4 average daily U.S. volume to drop slightly year over year due to its planned reduction in deliveries made for Amazon, part of UPS' strategy to focus on more profitable customer segments like small businesses and healthcare shippers.

Despite the forecasted volume decline, UPS is projecting Q4 revenue to increase 3% year over year for its U.S. business, driven by higher per-package revenue and volume growth among premium customer segments, according to EVP and CFO Brian Dykes.

The company has made progress in attracting more profitable volume into its network this year. Small- and medium-sized business shippers represented 35.1% of UPS' total U.S. volume in Q3, up about 240 basis points from last year, Tomé said. Revenue tied to healthcare shippers, another high-priority segment for UPS, exceeded $3 billion for the third consecutive quarter.

The shift in strategy benefited UPS' U.S. results in Q3. Revenue per piece increased 6.1% despite a 3.3% drop in average daily volume. About half of revenue per piece growth came from base shipping rates and improvements to customer mix, while higher fuel rates made up the remainder, according to Dykes.

"We expect the momentum we've seen with SMB and enterprise customers to continue as seasonal volumes ramp up in line with last year," Dykes said.

UPS' upgrades ahead of the 2026 peak season include the launch of Protected Delivery, a service that provides added security by requiring the recipient to share a PIN code with the courier to release the package, Tomé said. Protected Delivery will be available for $10.70 per shipment starting Nov. 16, according to UPS' website. Additionally, the carrier has increased the use of automation in its network and is tapping RFID technology to reduce the need for manual scanning.

The projected year-over-year volume drop in Q4 will make things easier for UPS from an operational standpoint, Dykes noted.

"By bringing down the water level on some difficult volume, right, it means that we are renting less trailers, we're leasing less aircraft," Dykes said. "While we're hiring, we're not having to hire and train as many people in such a short time period."

While UPS plans to hire 100,000 seasonal employees for the holidays, the company has trimmed its driver ranks as it adjusts to the decline in Amazon volume. UPS saw about 1,500 drivers accept buyouts and exit the company in Q3 as part of its "Driver Choice Program," with most leaving at the end of the quarter, Dykes said.