ISLAMABAD: The Ministry of Finance (MoF) has presented a snapshot of macroeconomic indicators for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026-27, highlighting record foreign exchange reserves, rising exports and investment inflows, but the scorecard lacks key indicators such as imports, inflation, per capita income and poverty to provide a complete picture of the economy.
According to the ministry’s Pakistan Macro, Reform and Investment Scorecard for July-September 2026, foreign exchange reserves held by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) surged 52 percent year-on-year to a record USD 21.5 billion, while foreign direct investment (FDI) increased 20 percent to USD 720 million.
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Total exports rose 11 percent year-on-year to USD 11.2 billion, supported by an 18 percent increase in information technology (IT) and technology exports to USD 1.25 billion. Workers’ remittances registered 14 percent growth while reaching USD 10.9 billion.
Total liquid foreign exchange reserves reached USD 26.8 billion, providing import cover of more than three months against 2.2 months in the same period last year. The rupee appreciated 1.5 percent year-on-year.
However, the current account posted a deficit of USD 874 million during the quarter, compared with USD 755 million in the corresponding period last year, indicating continued pressure on the external account despite an improvement in reserve buffers and export earnings.
The scorecard also reported a USD 3.65 billion net inflow of foreign investment, compared with a net outflow of USD 33 million in the same period last year. Foreign private investment rose 44 percent to USD 691 million, while foreign public investment recorded a net inflow of USD 2.96 billion against a net outflow of USD 512 million a year earlier.
Pakistan’s sovereign credit ratings also improved, with Moody’s upgrading the country from Caa1 to B3, S&P raising its rating from B- to B, and Fitch reaffirming its B- rating. All three major rating agencies maintained stable outlooks, placing Pakistan in the B category across the agencies, according to the scorecard.
The country also reached a staff-level agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on the fourth review under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and the third review under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). The agreement could unlock an additional USD 1.2 billion upon approval by the IMF Executive Board.
On the fiscal front, the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) collected Rs3.1 trillion in taxes during the first quarter, up seven percent year-on-year and exceeding the quarterly target. The number of income tax return filers increased 45 percent to 5.77 million.
The policy rate remained at 11.5 percent through September, down from a peak of 22 percent in June 2024.
The scorecard put total government debt at Rs86 trillion by August 2026, down Rs714 billion from June 2026. Domestic debt stood at Rs58.8 trillion, declining Rs684 billion over the period, while external debt remained stable at USD 98.2 billion. The debt-to-GDP ratio was reported at 68 percent in fiscal year 2026, compared with 75 percent in 2022-23.
Indicators of domestic economic activity showed that large-scale manufacturing grew 1.85 percent year-on-year in July-August 2026, while automobile sales increased 28 percent, petroleum sales six percent, cement sales four percent and fertiliser sales two percent.
Credit to the private sector reached Rs11.28 trillion in September, up 16.6 percent year-on-year. Financing to small and medium enterprises rose 66 percent to Rs1.14 trillion, while housing finance increased 71.9 percent to Rs365 billion.
The scorecard also highlighted progress in privatisation, financial inclusion and digitalisation. Due diligence was under way for the proposed privatisation of power distribution companies, with 10 investors each pre-qualified for Faisalabad Electric Supply Company and Islamabad Electric Supply Company and nine for Gujranwala Electric Power Company.
Under targeted financial support initiatives, the Prime Minister’s Apna Ghar programme had disbursed Rs76 billion against approvals of Rs426 billion, while the Zarkhez-e initiative had disbursed Rs2.14 billion against approvals of Rs7.87 billion.
Digital payments continued to expand, with 92 percent of retail payments conducted digitally by volume in fiscal year 2026. The country recorded 13.2 billion transactions, up 65 percent year-on-year, while more than two million active digital merchants were reported.
Company incorporations rose 45 percent to 15,440 during the period, with 99.9 percent completed digitally, according to the scorecard.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2026