These factors could decide Netanyahu's fate in Israel's election

Tel Aviv — After three years with their country at war on multiple fronts, Israelis will go to the polls Tuesday in a hotly contested election that will shape their next government. Polls show it is an incredibly tight race, and as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu fights to hold onto his job, there's no guarantee of a quick, definitive outcome for him or his political opponents.

Polls vary widely regarding the expected outcome. Right-leaning pollsters give an advantage to the right-wing and religious bloc led by Netanyahu, while left-leaning pollsters show an advantage for the so-called change bloc opposing the incumbent. 

Most polls show neither side is likely to win a decisive majority of the 120 seats in Israel's parliament, the Knesset, which would enable it to unilaterally form a new government. The tight margins mean the voting may end in a stalemate, which could lead to protracted negotiations across ideological lines, the formation of a minority government, or even an election do-over. 

"It looks like an indecisive outcome is the most likely outcome," said Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute.

This will be the first election since the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks by Hamas, which authorities have acknowledged as Israel's most catastrophic security failure since the country's founding in 1948. Israelis will go to the polls Tuesday with their country still — fighting in the subsequent multi-front war in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria, and after two direct rounds of conflict with Iran  and Netanyahu advocating for a third. 

Against that backdrop, there are a few key issues that could determine the election outcome, even if it does take days or weeks to shake out. But first, here's a look at the two main factions vying for the votes.

The Netanyahu camp

Netanyahu, Israel's longest serving prime minister and leader of the Likud party, is seeking to form another coalition similar to his current government, which relies on partnerships with ultranationalist and Jewish religious parties. 

He has two main pitches to voters: First, that only he can form a government without the support of Israel's Arab parties, which he argues would be a danger to the country if they gain enough seats to influence Israel's engagement in its myriad conflicts. 

Netanyahu's second argument to voters is that Israel's campaigns in Gaza, Lebanon, and especially Iran, are ongoing, and he needs more time to finish what his government started.  

President Trump offered a full-throated endorsement of Netanyahu last week. He reiterated his administration's firm support for the war the two men launched jointly against Iran almost eight months ago, and warned that he could be disinclined to continue with it if Netanyahu doesn't hold onto power.  

"If Israel has the wrong Leader, which would be anyone other than Bibi, America will have to do this work ourselves, and I am not inclined to do so," Mr. Trump said.

Since that endorsement, Netanyahu has argued that only he can work with Mr. Trump to ensure Iran does not obtain a nuclear weapon, which many Israelis see as an existential threat. 

Netanyahu's campaign slogan, which rhymes in Hebrew, is: "Either right wing or Palestine, either right wing or a nuclear bomb." 

Over the weekend, Netanyahu posted an AI-generated photo of a mushroom cloud over Tel Aviv on social media, with a caption reiterating his insistence that Iran poses an existential threat to Israel.

Netanyahu's supporters see him as a top-tier global leader.

"Bibi can handle the whole world," restaurant owner Benny Abraham told CBS News, using Netanyahu's nickname. "Bibi is charismatic. He has a strong voice. The world loves him."

"He's the king of Israel," Abraham added. 

The (anyone but Netanyahu) "change bloc"

Running against Netanyahu is a diverse group of Arab, right, left and center parties that have one clear common denominator: They all want Netanyahu out of power. 

The front-runner to lead the "change bloc," should its various parties collectively win enough seats to build a coalition, is former Israeli military chief Gadi Eizenkot, who leads the centrist Yashar party. 

Eizenkot lost his son and two nephews while they were serving in the military in Gaza. He was part of the Israeli war cabinet for much of the first year of the Gaza war, working alongside Netanyahu. About half of his party's candidates in Tuesday's election are women, in stark contrast to the male-dominated Netanyahu coalition.

Eizenkot is framing himself as a humble veteran who wants to reunite Israel after years of division that he blames on Netanyahu. 

Eisenkot responded Monday to Netanyahu's rhetoric about Iran posing a nuclear threat by accusing him of "relying on a campaign of fear-mongering, lies, and threats — including images of nuclear bombs in the heart of Tel Aviv."

"This time, it won't work for him," he said. 

Eisenkot's key campaign promises include launching a state inquiry into the intelligence and security failure to prevent the Oct. 7, 2023, attack by Hamas — something Netanyahu has thus far blocked.

Uzi Aharoni, 73, an engineer from Tel Aviv, told CBS News he saw Eizenkot as the only real alternative to Netanyahu. 

"Eizenkott is not left, he's not right. He's straight and honest. He's the kind of leader who will take care of us, the people of Israel, and not himself or his corrupt family," Aharoni said.

The Arab vote and the ultra-Orthodox draft 

There are a few factors analysts believe could hand a victory to either side.

One thing polls can't predict well in Israel is voter turnout. Past elections have shown voters backing Netanyahu's Likud party, and Arab-Israeli voters, vary the greatest in their enthusiasm to come out on election days, so there could be room for turn-out surprises that significantly change the electoral math in favor of either side. 

Arab Israelis, also referred to as Palestinian citizens of Israel, make up around 20% of Israel's population.

"The higher the Arab turnout, the less likely that Mr. Netanyahu, within the current coalition, can form another government," said Plesner at the Israel Democracy Institute. 

More Arab voters will head to voting booths this year because of their strong desire to prevent Netanyahu from forming another government with far-right allies, who have made life difficult for them over the last four years, Jehad Abomoch, a cafe owner in the predominantly Arab city of Baqa al Gharbiya, told CBS News.

"The last four years were a real catastrophe, both socially and in terms of wars," he said, adding that many Arab Israelis feel that under Netanyahu, they have "no hope, no future." 

There are also two new parties entering this election, and polls show each is hovering around the threshold of support required to gain seats in the Knesset. Whether either party ultimately crosses that threshold could also tip the scales — in either direction — toward a new coalition government. 

Both parties are focused on challenging Netanyah's alliance with ultra-Orthodox parties by demanding that ultra-Orthodox Jewish citizens be formally included in Israel's mandatory military service.

It's a key issue that cuts right through Netanyahu's traditional support base and coalition partners. 

Not all election outcomes are neat and tidy

In the event that neither bloc wins a clear majority in parliament, there are several paths forward to a new Israeli government. 

One option is that parties or individual lawmakers could break election promises and switch sides, for which there is plenty of precedent in Israeli politics. There could be weeks of negotiating before a coalition is agreed on. 

Another possibility is that the change bloc, if it wins a significant share of the votes but not quite a majority, could seek to form a minority government. To do that, the parties just need to win more seats collectively than the other side, even if it's not more than 50% of the 120 available. Arab parties could give the change bloc that plurality by either voting in favor of a minority government, or just abstaining and not voting against its formation.

If there's a stalemate and neither side can build a coalition government, the country will have to hold new elections. There is plenty of precedent for that scenario, too.

 Between 2019 and 2022, Israel held five elections due to electoral deadlock. 

Plesner told CBS News that, if all the politicians running effectively stick to their campaign promises and refuse to swap sides in the event of a stalemate "we will roll into another election." 

"I'm sure that most politicians are not interested in that," he added.