Published Tuesday, 27 October, 6:58 a.m. ET (11:58 a.m. Madrid) · Source: Spanish polling institutes, CIS, Kalshi, Polymarket.
Spain’s right-wing parties are still heading for a majority, while the Socialist government wins back a little ground but finds no way to win. Sigma Dos, a leading Spanish polling firm, puts the People’s Party (PP) and the Vox party at 191 to 200 of the 350 seats in Congress, ahead of the Spain Election 2026 vote on 29 November.
A majority needs 176 seats. NC Report, another private pollster, goes further and puts the two parties above 200.
Key Facts
- What happened: Three new private polls keep the conservative PP and Vox above the 176 seats needed for a majority.
- The numbers: Sigma Dos has PP and Vox at 191 to 200 of 350 seats; the left is split.
- What next: Spain votes on Sunday, 29 November; the official campaign opens on 13 November.
- Prediction markets: Kalshi, a US-regulated exchange, priced Feijóo at 83% to be prime minister (6:58 a.m. ET, 27 October).
In plain English
Spain elects its parliament in two chambers, and the government must win a majority in the lower one, the Congress of Deputies. The PP is the main conservative party, Vox sits to its right, and the Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez governs.
Why the Right Keeps Its Majority
Every private poll we checked, including GESOP, 40dB, GAD3 and SocioMétrica, leaves the PP and Vox above 176 seats.
The PP, led by Alberto Núñez Feijóo, is projected at roughly 121 to 144 seats. That is level with or below the 137 it won in 2023, and NC Report shows it slipping from 146 to 148 seats in early October to about 141 to 144 now.
Vox is the real winner of the polls. It won 33 seats in 2023 and is now projected at 63 to 74, roughly double.
The Socialists Recover, but the Left Splits
The PSOE is projected at about 100 to 117 seats, short of the 121 it won in 2023. It has gained a little since early October.
The reason is the split on the left. Frente Amplio, a left-wing alliance, and Podemos, a left-wing party, are running separately, so the bloc that won 31 seats as Sumar in 2023 now divides its votes.
One Poll Says the Opposite
The CIS, Spain’s state-run Centre for Sociological Research, published a survey on 14 October that put the PSOE at 34%, 11.8 points ahead of the PP. Private pollsters see a very different race, and we cannot say which will be closer on 29 November.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Kalshi’s market “Prime Minister of Spain after the next election?”, traders priced Alberto Núñez Feijóo at 83%, Pedro Sánchez at 15% and Vox leader Santiago Abascal at 7% on 27 October at 6:58 a.m. ET, with 27,891 contracts (bets) traded. Kalshi, a US exchange, is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
On Polymarket, a crypto-based exchange, a contract on a PP and Vox majority traded at 80% (US$12,094 traded).
These prices are bets, not polls, and each is priced separately, so they need not add up to 100%.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for US Readers
Spain is a NATO ally and the euro area’s fourth-largest economy, so a PP and Vox government would shape its line on migration, energy and relations with Washington. US investors in Spanish assets will watch whether the right needs help from smaller parties to govern.
What Is Not Known
The polls we checked project only the Congress, not the Senate (Spain’s upper house). We also cannot say whether the PSOE’s recovery will last or fade.
See our Spain election polls page, our Alberto Núñez Feijóo profile and Pedro Sánchez explainer.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is ahead in Spain’s election polls?
Private polls put the conservative PP first and the PP and Vox above the 176 seats needed for a majority. The state-run CIS survey of 14 October is the exception and puts the Socialists 11.8 points ahead.
When does Spain vote?
Spain votes on Sunday, 29 November 2026, for both the Congress of Deputies and the Senate. The new parliament is due to meet on 23 December.
Sources: Sigma Dos, NC Report, SocioMétrica, GAD3, 40dB and GESOP polls; CIS barometer of 14 October; Boletín Oficial del Estado (Royal Decree 806/2026); Kalshi, Polymarket.
Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error
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