19h05 ▪ 5 min read ▪ by Luc Jose A.
Summarize this article with:
The disappearance of 30000 Bitcoin wallets fuels the idea of retail capitulation, at a time when Galaxy recommends accumulating BTC. Compared to the roughly 60 million addresses still active, this decline represents only about 0.05% of the total and is not enough to confirm a market reversal.
In Brief
- Bitcoin has lost 30000 wallets since October 16, which is only 0.05% of the total.
- This decline may indicate fatigue among small holders, without confirming a general capitulation.
- Galaxy estimates the bear market ended in June and Bitcoin is undergoing an accumulation phase.
- Bitcoin ETFs have absorbed about 87000 BTC since June, despite recent irregular flows.
- The reduction of speculative positions could limit the risks of cascading liquidations.
The Decline in Wallet Numbers Remains Marginal
Since October 16, the number of Bitcoin addresses with a positive balance has decreased by 30000, returning to nearly 59.95 million, according to Santiment data. This development occurs while BTC struggles to sustainably move away from the 80000 dollar zone.
Santiment interprets this decline as a possible sign of fatigue among small holders. Their departure could be a contrarian signal: when the least patient investors sell, selling pressure may gradually exhaust.
The figures must, however, be placed in context :
- The disappeared 30000 addresses represent about 0.05% of the total ;
- A Bitcoin address does not necessarily correspond to one person ;
- An investor can control multiple wallets ;
- A platform can group bitcoins from thousands of clients ;
- Moving the funds does not prove that they have been sold.
The observed variation is therefore too small to demonstrate a general capitulation. It could come from small holders who liquidated their position, but also from a technical consolidation of holdings into a reduced number of addresses.
The indicator also does not specify the amount of bitcoins involved. Closing 30000 wallets containing a few thousand satoshis would have less market influence than selling a single address owning several thousand BTC.
Galaxy Sees a Cleansed Market After Speculators’ Departure
Galaxy’s analysis is not based on the decrease in the number of wallets. The company considers that the bear market probably ended in June, when Bitcoin fell below 58000 dollars. Since this low, its price has rebounded about 38%.
Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy, states that Bitcoin is now going through an accumulation phase similar to those that preceded its past rallies. He explains:
We believe the bear market ended in June and that Bitcoin is in the accumulation phase that has preceded every previous upward move.
The recovery above the 50-week moving average is its main technical argument. Bitcoin recorded five consecutive weekly closes above this line after spending 44 weeks below it. Galaxy sees this as a sign of a more durable trend change.
Speculative positioning has also lightened. The net long exposure of managers on CME Bitcoin futures has decreased by 57% since the week of the all-time high. Several trading firms have likewise reduced their positions in ETFs.
“Fast money is gone, the base remains,” summarizes Alex Thorn. This leverage reduction may make the market less vulnerable to cascading liquidations, without guaranteeing a new rise.
Price and ETFs Still Need to Confirm Accumulation
Purchases made since June lend more weight to the accumulation thesis. According to Galaxy, spot Bitcoin ETFs have absorbed about 87000 BTC since the market low. This demand represents nearly three times the number of lost wallets, even if the comparison remains imperfect as it contrasts bitcoins with addresses.
Short-term flows remain irregular however. American ETFs received 110.34 million dollars Monday, but their monthly balance remains negative by more than 200 million dollars. On the company side, Strive bought 6182 BTC for 511.4 million dollars, while Strategy refrained from adding new bitcoins.
The market therefore does not yet show uniform accumulation. Some players are strengthening their positions, others are withdrawing, and small wallets are slightly decreasing. Bitcoin’s stability around 80000 dollars reflects this temporary balance.
Two levels will distinguish the scenarios. A return above 82500 dollars would support the hypothesis of a local floor. A weekly close below 76540 dollars, followed by an inability to recover this threshold for a month, would invalidate Galaxy’s technical analysis.
The 30000 disappeared wallets thus tell a story of evolving holder behavior, but not a confirmed reversal. ETF flows, leverage reduction, and support holding provide more relevant indications to judge whether Bitcoin has truly entered an accumulation phase.
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Luc Jose A.
Diplômé de Sciences Po Toulouse et titulaire d'une certification consultant blockchain délivrée par Alyra, j'ai rejoint l'aventure Cointribune en 2019. Convaincu du potentiel de la blockchain pour transformer de nombreux secteurs de l'économie, j'ai pris l'engagement de sensibiliser et d'informer le grand public sur cet écosystème en constante évolution. Mon objectif est de permettre à chacun de mieux comprendre la blockchain et de saisir les opportunités qu'elle offre. Je m'efforce chaque jour de fournir une analyse objective de l'actualité, de décrypter les tendances du marché, de relayer les dernières innovations technologiques et de mettre en perspective les enjeux économiques et sociétaux de cette révolution en marche.
DISCLAIMER
The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.