Note: The Global Morning Briefing summarizes global news reported by The Seoul Economic Daily.
Anthropic IPO to Break SpaceX Record, With $800 Billion in Fixed Costs the Key Question
Anthropic, the developer of the artificial intelligence model Claude, has filed a registration statement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for a Nasdaq listing. The company has formally launched what would be the largest initial public offering on record, seeking to raise $100 billion at a valuation of up to $2 trillion. If completed, it would mark the first U.S. stock market debut by an AI model developer and would surpass the record set by SpaceX in June, which was valued at $1.77 trillion and raised $86 billion. Wall Street expects trading to begin between the midterm elections on Nov. 3 and Thanksgiving on Nov. 26.
The filing states that investment contracts signed with semiconductor and data center companies exceed $800 billion and run through 2045. Anthropic signed a five-year, $161.2 billion contract with Broadcom to lease Google's TPUs, and will spend more than $20 billion on AMD chips. It will receive at least $269.4 billion worth of cloud services over 10 years from Google, Amazon and Microsoft, but because these are fixed costs payable regardless of usage, some say the real beneficiaries are the Big Tech firms. The company's valuation, which climbed to $965 billion in May, slowed its ascent in the second half of the year, and at an investor presentation on the 14th of this month some investors put the figure at around $1.5 trillion.
In response, Anthropic has pointed to improving earnings. First-half revenue rose more than 14-fold to $16.286 billion, while the operating loss narrowed 68% to $693 million from $2.14 billion. Adjusted operating profit, excluding one-time valuation losses, came to $1.618 billion, the company's first half-year profit since its founding. Its latest model, Opus 5.5, cut token costs per task by about 40%, and revenue per employee reached $6.6 million, approaching Nvidia's $7 million. The company also listed risks including existential concerns about humanity, friction with the Donald Trump administration, semiconductor supply chain bottlenecks and slowing growth. Anthropic is also pursuing public offerings in Japan and Britain, but because it has not completed registration procedures in South Korea, its shares can be sold there only through private placement.
What if HBM Runs Short? Anthropic's Admission of Reliance on Samsung, SK and Micron
Ahead of its listing, Anthropic has issued an unusual warning to investors that AI without safeguards could prove catastrophic for humanity. The company also cited the possibility that it may fail to secure enough high-bandwidth memory, a core component of cutting-edge AI.
In the 335-page registration statement filed with the SEC on the 26th, 94 pages — about a quarter of the document — were devoted to describing risk factors. The company said AI developed without oversight could threaten humanity's existence if it is misused, replicated or weaponized, or if it operates with a high degree of autonomy. It also noted concerns that AI could be exploited to develop chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear weapons. The company explained that a major incident could create enormous liability, and that finding an insurer willing to assume that risk would be difficult. While revenue grew more than 1,000% last year, Anthropic said growth at the same pace would be difficult because of intensifying competition and safety issues.
The company also flagged political and social conflict as a risk. It said its business could be disrupted because it has been designated a supply chain risk by the U.S. Department of Defense and is engaged in litigation with the Donald Trump administration.
Supply chain bottlenecks were also highlighted. The company said it relies on three suppliers — Samsung Electronics, SK hynix and Micron — for HBM, and that because all three have production facilities outside the United States, they could be affected by export and import restrictions or tariffs. It also noted that if problems arise at Taiwan's TSMC, which effectively handles all contract manufacturing of AI chips, its supply chain could be paralyzed. Local opposition to data centers and the depletion of water resources used for cooling were also on the risk list.
Even so, Anthropic stressed that if AI is properly controlled, it could play a decisive role in treating intractable diseases such as cancer, Alzheimer's, heart disease, rare genetic disorders and infectious diseases. Citing data from the research firm IDC, the company projected cumulative economic benefits of $22.5 trillion through 2031.
636 Trillion Won Wiped Out in Four Months as China's AI Bubble Deflates Quietly
The artificial intelligence bubble in China's stock market is deflating rapidly. Regulators have tightened listing requirements, dashing hopes of early returns through IPOs, and the losses are falling squarely on retail investors.
According to Reuters on the 27th, Shanghai's STAR50 index, which groups leading AI and semiconductor stocks, plunged 4.81% to close at 1,252.28. The index has fallen 40% in less than four months, erasing about $480 billion in market value, while the blue-chip CSI300 index stood at 4,049.55, about 20% below its June high. According to Goldman Sachs, AI-related shares account for 42% of China's market capitalization and 57% of trading value, amplifying the impact. Declines in individual stocks have been steeper. Unitree, a robotics company whose IPO drew subscriptions more than 8,000 times the shares on offer, has lost half its value since trading began in August, while MetaX and Moore Threads have also fallen by half since July.
The industry points to the main cause as the China Securities Regulatory Commission's informal tightening last month of approval standards for listings by robotics companies. Companies must now demonstrate sustained ability to generate revenue, the prospect of narrowing losses and substantive technological innovation. Investment in physical AI fell 40.1% in a single month, to 11.6 billion yuan last month from 19.4 billion yuan in August. High share prices and tax burdens compounded the problem, along with the possibility that the United States could ban the use of Chinese-made data center equipment, and some say a crackdown on leveraged and high-frequency trading went too far.
There are structural problems as well. Because offering prices were set conservatively and the initial float was limited, share prices jumped several times over immediately after listing, and the government's policy of encouraging listings by technology companies before commercialization also fueled the overheating. Fund manager Dong Baozhen said the market is now watching a bubble burst. Shen Meng, a director at Chanson & Co., said the structure shifts pre-listing risk onto ordinary investors after companies go public.
Israel's First Election Since the War, and Netanyahu's Last Card: A Trump Endorsement
Israel's general election began on the 27th, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu using an endorsement statement from U.S. President Donald Trump in a late push for votes. The election is expected to shape not only Netanyahu's political fate but also the course of the war with Iran.
Netanyahu posted both the original text of Trump's endorsement and a Hebrew translation on X on the 26th, and later that afternoon cited it again in appealing to voters to eliminate the Iranian threat together through their ballots. A day earlier, he argued that Trump was prepared to act again to end the Iranian threat, but that this would be possible only if Netanyahu himself remained in power. The message underscored to conservative voters who want the Iran issue resolved that his continued tenure was a prerequisite.
It is the first general election since the Gaza war broke out following the Hamas surprise attack on Oct. 7, 2023. Polls make clear that no single party will win 61 seats, a majority of the 120-seat parliament. Netanyahu's Likud and Yashar, the main opposition party led by former military chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot, are each expected to win about 20 seats, and even adding like-minded minor parties, both blocs are projected to reach only around 50 seats.
After the votes are counted, Israel's president gives the leader of the party with the most votes 28 days, extendable by 14 days, to form a coalition. Securing 61 or more seats during that period would make that leader prime minister. A majority would be possible with the addition of Arab parties, which hold 14 seats, but both sides have refused such an alliance, suggesting a difficult path to forming a government. If coalition talks collapse, a new election would be held early next year, with Netanyahu leading a caretaker government in the meantime. Reuters, however, cited experts as saying Arab parties could join hands with Yashar to oust Netanyahu.
