Channel 12 political commentator Amit Segal estimated on Tuesday evening, following the release of the exit polls for the 26th Knesset, that the Israeli public had voted by a significant majority against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remaining in office. However, he stressed that it was still unclear whether Gadi Eisenkot would be able to translate the results into the formation of a government.
“According to these polls, the Israeli public voted today by a significant majority against Benjamin Netanyahu remaining in office and against the coalition he led for four years, minus four days," Segal said during Channel 12’s election broadcast.
He said that although the results pointed to a majority opposed to Netanyahu remaining in office, the main challenge would be forming a coalition capable of relying on that majority.
“The big question is whether this majority, led by Gadi Eisenkot, will be able to form a minority government against him, in violation of Naftali Bennett’s and Avigdor Liberman’s campaign promises? Or a unity government, in violation of everyone’s campaign promises?" he asked.
Segal outlined three possible scenarios following the exit polls: the formation of a minority government, the establishment of a unity government, or another round of elections.
A minority government, he said, could contradict the campaign promises made by Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Liberman, while a unity government would require the parties to backtrack on commitments they made during the campaign.
The third possibility, he said, was another election, a scenario he believes runs counter to the Israeli public’s wishes.
“These are the three possibilities, and the question of which one is more likely to materialize will not be resolved tonight," Segal said, adding that the picture could become clearer as more data came in.
Segal stressed that under the political circumstances that had emerged, even a small shift in the distribution of Knesset seats could have a dramatic impact on the possibility of forming a government.
“Every single seat that shifts here matters," he explained.
As an example, he pointed out that in Channel 12’s exit poll, the change bloc holds 52 seats. Even when combined with the seven seats projected for Ra’am, the bloc reaches only 59 seats.
“If they gain two seats, suddenly that possibility opens up. If someone else gains seats, the situation is different," he said.
Segal concluded by urging viewers to continue following the results throughout the night.
“It is worth continuing to watch with bated breath throughout the night, following every single seat."