McDonald's McRib Doesn't Actually Boost Bitcoin's Price, Sorry Everyone

The McDonald's McRib has become a crypto meme in recent years, due to many traders believing that its reintroduction to the menu precedes a boost in Bitcoin's price. And, with the tangy pork sandwich back in certain states across the U.S., crypto traders are getting excited.

But experts have taken the McRib theory off the menu, saying that those parroting the theory are forgetting all of the times that the McRib hasn't coincided with a Bitcoin price increase.

"There is no correlation at all," Luke Nolan, senior researcher at CoinShares, told Decrypt. "Whilst it is a fun exercise, it seems to be that people omit McRib returns when it doesn't fit the narrative."

Nolan shared a chart tracking the McRib's return compared to Bitcoin's weekly close, and only three out of 10 McRib returns posted clear positive Bitcoin returns. In fact, it often comes before major drops in valuation.

Carlos Guzman, vice president of research at crypto trading firm GSR, told Decrypt that there is "no causal mechanism” and that any price increases following the McRib's reintroduction is just a "funny coincidence."

"Let's say, hypothetically, it did indicate the start of a bull run, it would be quite nonsensical, similar to when people overlaid the Dune movie releases," Nolan said. "So yes, it's fun, generates some excitement, but even in the best case, purely coincidental."

Guzman agreed, adding that the crypto community likely just clings to the theory as it's "silly," "obviously absurd," and because people find it funny.

This year's McRib return comes as Bitcoin sits in what André Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Europe, called "wait and see mode," with traders waiting for the Federal Reserve's next moves before making big bets.

What will actually move Bitcoin?

Bitcoin has seen fairly limited activity over the past month, according to Decrypt data, dropping just 6% as it sits at $79,750.

The Fed raised rates in September for the first time since 2023, and CPI then rose 0.6% for the month. Its next rate decision is on Wednesday.

That decision is one of three catalysts coming in the next two weeks, Jake Koch-Gallup, senior research analyst at Blockworks, told Decrypt. The other two are an options expiry of $11.69 billion worth of Bitcoin on October 30 and the U.S. midterms on November 3.

"If the Fed keeps rates the same and ETF inflows keep coming, I’d expect the break to be upward," Koch-Gallup told Decrypt last week. "If the Fed hikes again, the $75,000 to $77,000 floor comes back into play."

So if the Fed gives the market what it wants, then Bitcoin's price could actually jump over the coming days… just as the McRib returns to McDonald's stores. Coincidence? Experts think so.