You didn’t need to physically be at Paycom Center to understand the severity of Thunder wing Jalen Williams’ gruesome left leg injury suffered on Sunday night — you could hear and see everything.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, unable to even look in Williams’ direction as he lay under the basket, covering his face in his jersey, trying to gather himself.
The in-game announcers, whose literal job it is to entertain and communicate, struggling to find the right words.
The fans, attempting to process what had just happened in real time, visibly shaken, either turning away or covering their mouths with their hands.
And then there was Williams himself, who was consumed by so much shock he couldn’t utter a scream or shout, looking down in disbelief at his leg in a position it was certainly not supposed to be in, before trainers could whisk him away on a stretcher.
“We’re not doing great,” head coach Mark Daigneault said following the 108-101 win. “That’s tough on the guys. We're planning on coming in tomorrow, and I'm holding that because I think it's good to get around each other when you go through some tough situations. We'll come in, we'll regroup tomorrow, and see where we're at."
Injuries are sports’ worst enemy, not just because of their cruelty, but because of their unpredictable cadence. (As of Monday afternoon, the full extent of Williams’ injury is unknown.) Spend some time around this team, and you’ll quickly understand not only how close-knit that Thunder locker room is, but how deeply they were affected by Williams’ absence last season. The 25-year-old was limited to just 33 games dealing with hamstring and wrist injuries, a void that necessitated others filling in, and an unfortunate reminder of the costs of contention.
In the games that Williams missed, reserve 3&D guard Cason Wallace was the most commonly used deputy. While there isn’t anyone on the roster truly capable of replicating Williams’ blend of high-usage playmaking, shot creation and switchable point-of-attack defense, Wallace offers a similar stopper skill set and more consistent shooting.
But Wallace wasn’t designated to be Williams’ backup this season; he was inserted into the starting lineup alongside Williams due to the offseason departure of Lu Dort. With Williams sidelined, perhaps the Thunder will turn to Ajay Mitchell. Over 114 possessions last season — a relatively small sample size — the SGA/Mitchell/Wallace/Chet Holmgren/Isaiah Hartenstein pairing was a whopping plus-31.5 with a 99th percentile effective field goal percentage. This same group has played just six possessions this season, albeit with a similar plus-33.3 net rating.
Alternatively, Daigneault could roll with one of Alex Caruso or Jared McCain, each option bringing different things to the table. Caruso is a low-volume creator, similar to Wallace, but offers immense veteran savvy and poise. McCain is a volume shooter whose recent uptick in confidence and efficiency could offer the scoring punch lost with Williams. Oklahoma City trotted out 31 different starting lineups last year over the 82-game regular season, which is indicative of bad luck with injuries but also speaks to the sheer depth on the roster, with Daigneault able to experiment with a myriad of groups.
The natural answer, however, is the sliding scale shifting back toward Gilgeous-Alexander’s end. The reigning MVP had quietly taken on more of an off-ball role this season than he was accustomed to in efforts to lessen his workload (and likely prevent any injuries), but his efficiency has cratered to levels not seen since his rookie campaign and his gravity hasn’t yet translated into ball movement. (The Thunder are 27th in assists, unseen territory for a championship group.) One of the many benefits to having a healthy Williams was the ability to trot him out as a lead creator alongside the second unit while keeping the ship steady. Oklahoma City was a plus-229 in nearly 2,000 possessions with Williams on the floor last season — keeping that level of production up this time around will be more taxing on a thinner group.
There is also the possibility, perhaps down the line, of a trade. It’s no secret that the Thunder’s offensive struggles — 23rd in offensive rating at the time of this writing — are a bit more than early-season rust and, considering the different makeup of this team, it might make sense to get aggressive on the market earlier rather than later.
As for what a prolonged absence could mean for their title chances, I still have the Thunder among the top-2 with the San Antonio Spurs in the Western Conference (although the likes of Houston and Minnesota are making some of these assumptions increasingly difficult). The initial shock of Williams’ prognosis will take time for the team to accept and adjust, but over time a leveling out will prevail. This isn’t the first time they’ve been forced to deal without their second-best player — but to this degree, and under these new circumstances, the Thunder’s immediate and future timeline could be affected.