Jalen Brunson’s Rough Knicks Start Creates Uncomfortable Question

Jalen Brunson scored a game-high 28 points on Sunday vs. the Magic, but he was 12-of-28 from the field, 1-of-7 from three and missed half of his six free throw attempts. He had just four assists and turned the ball over three times in the Knicks’ defeat.

Through three quarters on Sunday, Brunson had 19 points, but it took 22 shots to get there and that didn’t really matter at the time for the Knicks. The Knicks won his minutes by 12 points through three quarters, even with a 97.9 offensive rating and 42.2% TS% with him on the floor. A lot of that had to do with them having a 73.9 defensive rating in his minutes, but things finally caught up to the Knicks, as they were outscored by 15 points (31-to-16) in the fourth quarter (8:40 on the floor). The team had a 76.2 ORTG, 155 DRTG, and -78.8 net rating in those minutes.

If we’re looking for literally ANY positives on the offensive end for Brunson from Sunday’s loss, it’s the fact he got to the rim eight times, going 7-of-8 on rim attempts. He had entered the game with just six rim attempts (3-of-6) through his first two games of the season.

However, he missed 15 of his 20 jump shots for the game, shooting 25% on such shots. He has struggled mightily with jump shots to start this season, shooting just 15-of-50 (30%) on them this season, after shooting 43.9% on jump shots last season.

That type of stuff sticks out when you remember that Brunson underwent surgery on his left wrist following the conclusion of last season’s NBA Finals. It could be rust, it could be that he’s still feeling the effects of the injury, or it could just be bad luck for Brunson.

In three games this season, Brunson is averaging 22.7 PPG, scoring 68 points on 64 shots, shooting 39.1% from the field. He’s 4-of-15 (26.7%) from three for the season. His 64 shot attempts are exactly how many he had through three games to start last season, but he had a 60.3% TS% in those three games, scoring 91 points on those 64 shots.

Brunson’s 46.7% TS% through his first three games is his second-lowest to start a season for his nine-year NBA career. He was only worse to start the 2019-20 season—his second NBA season—with Dallas when he had a 46.7% TS% through his first three games that year.

The constant through three games has been that the Knicks have struggled mightily with him on the floor this season, sporting a 100.5 ORTG and 49.5% TS% in 213 possessions with him on the floor this season. Another positive: the Knicks have a 104.7 DRTG with him on the floor this season, so it’s not like he’s being played off the floor. When Brunson is on the bench, the Knicks’ offense has a 115.2 ORTG with a 55.5% TS%, though the defense has been awful to the tune of a 127.5 DRTG and 66.2% TS% against across 79 possessions.

According to Spencer Pearlman’s The Court Lab, Brunson has been an overall negative offensive player and a positive defensive player for the Knicks, in terms of value added, to start this season. He’s averaged -2.72 value added on offense and +3.11 value added on defense, per Pearlman’s metrics. Digging deeper into the negative value added on offense, he’s averaged -3.47 value added as the on-ball player on offense, compared to +0.74 value added as the off-ball player on offense.

None of that is too shocking to hear. Brunson is top five in the sport in touches per game, so when he’s putting together below-average efficiency, he’s going to be an overall negative asset on the offensive end.

Pearlman’s metrics still suggest that Brunson has been a top 10 player (minimum of 10+ minutes per game) in advantages created per game this season, averaging 14.0 advantages created per game. Advantages created are “open-catch passes, drives that gained value or drew two defenders, cuts that opened a teammate, screen assists, and passes that led to free throws,” as made shots or shots attempted aren’t factored.

After the Knicks’ third defeat in three games to start the season, Brunson put a lot of the blame on himself and believes that the team is hearing too much positivity. He alluded to the fact that the media needs to go back to criticizing the team negatively.

How does Brunson find his way out of this rut? He’s going to stick to his plan, try to get to his spots on offense and try to find whatever ways possible to help the Knicks win and pull through in that column. The Knicks are the first team since the 2011-12 Mavericks to lose their first three games in a title defense season.

Like Michael Jordan was for those Bulls teams, Brunson stirs the drink for the Knicks, and them pulling out of this funk has a lot to do with him finding himself on the offensive end.

Given what he’s done for the organization and how he’s always pulled out of his times of struggle, there’s no reason to believe he won’t prosper once again. That’s what he does.

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