THE LATEST CLIMATE pledges put forth by nations will cut global greenhouse gas emissions by just 6% by 2035, a UN report said Tuesday, weeks before COP31 talks in Turkey.
That is a tenth of the roughly 60% reduction from 2019 levels that scientists say is needed to limit warming to 1.5C, significantly down from last year’s estimate after the United States withdrew from the Paris Agreement.
The report by UN Climate Change is a synthesis of 154 countries’ nationally determined contributions (NDCs) – obligatory submissions under the 2015 Paris deal – received between January 2024 and August 2026, covering 71% of global emissions.
It found that if the countries fully implemented their plans and also met conditional targets, emissions cuts would still amount to just 9%.
The UN last year estimated a 10% cut by 2035, but that was before a large number of NDCs had come in, leaving it to model the missing pledges, and before the US was taken out of the equation.
Under President Donald Trump, the US has left the Paris Agreement for a second time and is pursuing policies that heavily favour fossil fuels.
Last week, the United Nations Environment Programme found that global commitments to cut planet-heating emissions put the world on course for 2.6C warming this century.
“With its focus on practical measures to support greater implementation,” the COP31 meeting in Turkey “can help address some of the key gaps,” UN climate chief Simon Stiell said in a statement.
To have a reasonable chance of limiting warming to 1.5C by 2100 compared to pre-industrial levels, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates that global greenhouse gas emissions need to fall by 60% from 2019 levels by 2035.
For pathways to limiting warming to below 2C – the Paris Agreement’s fallback goal – emissions would need to fall by 37% by 2035.
Scientists warn that every additional fraction of a degree above 1.5C increases extreme weather events and the likelihood of irreversible changes to the planet, from dying coral reefs to melting permafrost.
The world has already warmed roughly 1.4C relative to pre-industrial times, and crossing 1.5C is expected in a matter of years.
In another report released on Tuesday, the UN found that progress has been made in increasing financing to curb warming, but it still falls far short of what is required.
Global climate finance flows reached an average of $1.9 trillion (€1.7 trillion) per year in 2023 and 2024 — a 32% increase compared with 2021 and 2022 — driven largely by private investment in low-emission technology, including renewable electricity generation, and private household investment in electric vehicles and heat pumps.