The Ohio Senate and governor's races shifted toward Democrats in Fox News' latest power rankings published on Tuesday, dealing a fresh blow to Republicans Jon Husted and Vivek Ramaswamy one week ahead of the midterm elections.
Both races moved from toss-ups to "Lean Democratic" in the new ratings, as Democrats become increasingly optimistic about their chances of contesting more conservative states this year.
Ohio has trended steadily rightward over the past decade. President Barack Obama carried the state in 2008 and 2012, but it voted for President Donald Trump in all three of his runs. Despite that trend, the Buckeye State appears competitive in this year's elections as Trump's approval rating has slipped due to voter frustration with the state of the economy and cost of living.
Polling has pointed to close races for the Senate, between Husted and Democratic former Senator Sherrod Brown, and the governor's mansion, between Ramaswamy and Democrat Amy Acton.
Brown led Husted by 3.3 points, while Acton led Ramaswamy by 4.4 points in RealClearPolitics' polling aggregate as of Tuesday.
Newsweek has contacted the Acton, Brown, Husted and Ramaswamy campaigns for comment via email.
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Why Ohio Races Shifted in Latest Fox News Ratings
The shift in the Senate race follows polling that has been favorable for Ohio Democrats, though Republicans have notably been underestimated in the past, and an overall national environment that has soured for the GOP.
Ohio voters' familiarity with Brown, who served in the Senate from 2007 to 2025, makes it harder for Husted to "campaign on socialism and woke politics," Rémy Numa, who leads the Fox News Power Rankings, wrote in the update on Tuesday.
In the governor's race, Ramaswamy has faced a wave of bipartisan backlash over a campaign ad featuring Acton's estranged mother, Donna Arthur, who accused Acton of lying. The ad drew criticism as Acton has discussed experiencing sexual abuse and homelessness during her childhood.
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Numa wrote that the change is "less about the response to the ad," but more about the campaign feeling the need to run it, adding that Ramaswamy "has struggled in favorability ratings throughout his political career."
How Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball Compare
The new ratings from Fox are in line with other forecasters on the governor's race, but they represent a more bullish position on the Senate race.
Both the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball give Acton a modest edge in the governor's race, placing it in their "Lean Democratic" categories. But both also viewed the Ohio Senate race as a pure toss-up in their latest ratings, as of Tuesday.
Sabato's Crystal Ball moved the governor's race from toss-up to "Leans Democratic" last week, with analysts Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman describing the attack ad as "an awfully risky and desperate move" as Ramaswamy "appears to be behind."
Jon Husted vs. Sherrod Brown: Latest Polls in Ohio Senate Race
Polling in the Senate race has been close, but Brown has generally held a lead recently.
Husted, who served as lieutenant governor of Ohio from 2019 to 2025, was appointed to the Senate by Republican Governor Mike DeWine to fill the seat vacated by Vice President JD Vance after the 2024 election.
Brown was up 2.3 points in the latest InsiderAdvantage poll of 1,200 likely voters from October 21 to 22. Some 46.7 percent said they would vote for Brown, while 44.4 percent indicated they planned to cast their ballots for Husted. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 percentage points.
Meanwhile, a Fox News poll, conducted by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research, gave Brown a 5-point lead, 52 percent to 47 percent, among 1,592 likely voters from October 15 to 19. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
Brown held a 4-point lead in a Marist University poll of 1,176 likely voters from October 15 to 18, with 48 percent support compared to Husted's 44 percent. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.
Brown is an anomaly in Ohio politics—a Democrat who has been able to win statewide during the Trump era even as the state shifted rightward. He won reelection in 2018, the most recent "blue wave" year, and he brings high name recognition and an established brand to the race.
Amy Acton vs. Vivek Ramaswamy: Latest Polls in Ohio Governor Race
Polls have also been close in the governor's race between Acton and Ramaswamy.
Acton served as the director of the Ohio Department of Health during the COVID-19 pandemic, while Ramaswamy rose to national prominence during his 2024 presidential campaign, which he suspended early in the primaries before endorsing Trump.
Acton led Ramaswamy by 2 points in the Fox News poll, 50 percent to 48 percent. She was up 7 points in the Marist poll, 50 percent to 43 percent.
An earlier poll from The New York Times and Siena University gave Acton a 4-point lead, 49 percent to 45 percent. It surveyed 616 likely voters from September 22 to October 1, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.
Ramaswamy's chances of winning the election fell on prediction markets after the attack ad against Acton.
Acton had an 82 percent chance of winning on Kalshi on Tuesday, up from 61 percent a month earlier, and an 84 percent chance on Polymarket, up from a 64 percent chance a month ago.
Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates. Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future.
The ad features Arthur speaking directly to the camera about her daughter, urging Ohio voters not to elect Acton.
"I love my daughter, but when I saw her lying about her opponent—and it's not easy for a mother to say this—but Amy has a serious problem," Arthur says in the video. "She is a liar. She lies about her past."
Acton's brother, Philip Stearns, wrote in a statement released by the Acton campaign that their mother lost custody of her children after her husband, Cledith Arthur, was arrested and charged with sexually abusing Acton. Stearns said the pair were together until his death.
Many Republicans have condemned the ad. DeWine told reporters last week he believed the Ramaswamy campaign running the ad was "wrong," and that it should have been taken down. Political commentator Meghan McCain called the ad "dastardly" on social media.
"It never should have been created. Shame on whatever consultant firm created this," she wrote.
However, Ramaswamy has stood by the ad, and Republicans such as Trump and Vance have pushed back on criticism.
"It's a mother speaking badly against Amy Acton, and to me it's very easy," Trump told reporters last week. "If it were my mother speaking badly about me, you'd be making it the number one story in the news."
While speaking with reporters in Cincinnati on Wednesday, Vance said that whether the ad was appropriate was "not really" his concern.
He also said, "I'm a little bit disgusted when I see Republicans across the country who are whining more about that advertisement than they are about what the congressional Democrats and other Democrats want to do to the United States of America."
Why Democrats Believe Ohio Is Competitive Again
Trump's 11-point win in 2024 was the largest Republican margin in decades, underscoring the rightward realignment in the state. Obama won it by more than 4 points in 2008 and about 3 points in 2012, before it flipped to Republicans. The state backed Trump by about 8 points in 2016 and 2020.
That trend has been driven by Trump's inroads with white working-class voters who were previously more politically mixed. His gains came from rural counties as well as the northeastern region near Cleveland.
Democrats have gained some ground in Cincinnati and Columbus suburbs, but not enough to offset Republicans' momentum in the rural areas.
The 2026 midterms present Democrats with an opportunity to reverse those tough trends in what was once one of the most important swing states in the country.
Historically, the party in the White House loses seats in the midterms when the president is unpopular, so Democrats believe Trump's low national approval rating will translate into electoral gains for them in the midterms.
Concerns around the economy and affordability have also been central to the Ohio race.
Democrats have also emphasized data centers as a key issue they hope will help them win over undecided voters. Ohio has become a center of the data center boom. Democrats have argued that Husted's work to bring data centers into the state as lieutenant governor leaves him at odds with voters who are less supportive of their development.
But Husted's campaign has noted that he introduced the Ratepayer Protection Act in the Senate. If passed, it would have required states to consider establishing standards for when data centers and other large electricity users connect to the grid, an effort to avert rising electricity prices for consumers.
Data centers, Democrats believe, could be a wedge issue that helps give them credibility with some of the voters who abandoned them over the past decade.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Shakeema Edwards.