Bitcoin has fallen below $80,000 ahead of the Federal Reserve’s October 28 decision, reopening the question of how much selling the market can absorb if buyers retreat again.
Summary
- BTC traded near $79,947 on October 26 after reaching an intraday low around $79,332, according to the dated crypto.news snapshot.
- U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $773.5 million on October 22 and 23 but gained $301.2 million across the full five-session week.
- Glassnode placed recent buying near $80,000 to $81,500 and a market-wide reference near $77,600 in its October 21 research.
- The Fed meets October 27 and 28, before the scheduled September PCE inflation report on October 29.
- Bitfinex identified $79,821 as a possible liquidation trigger in its October 19 assessment, not a guaranteed price floor.
The October 26 price snapshot put Bitcoin near $79,947, down 1.02% over 24 hours, after a session low around $79,332. A brief move through $80,000 does not answer whether another sharp fall is coming. The price has crossed that line before and found buyers, while a renewed slide would depend on how many holders sell, how much leverage remains and whether fresh demand appears at lower prices.
The Fed’s decision arrives Wednesday, with an inflation release the following day. The order matters because traders can change their view of interest rates twice in 24 hours even if policymakers leave the target rate untouched. Bitcoin’s first reaction to the statement may say little about how it closes the week. ETF creations and redemptions, futures positioning and ordinary spot orders will be moving through the market at the same time.
The risk is real, but “crash” needs a scale. A fall from $80,000 to $77,600 would be 3%. A drop to $75,000 would be 6.25%, and $70,000 would be 12.5%. Those are arithmetic comparisons, not forecasts or support levels established by themselves. Each price would require a different amount of selling and would meet buyers whose behavior cannot be known in advance.
— crypto.news (@cryptodotnews) October 25, 2026JUST IN: Peter Schiff warns Bitcoin could fall to $75,000
The longtime Bitcoin critic cautioned that BTC holders could face a rough weekend, adding fresh bearish sentiment as markets brace for potential volatility. pic.twitter.com/fsYJcoaTX5
Bitcoin broke $80,000 after an uneven week
Bitcoin’s latest decline followed an attempt to recover toward $85,000. The October 26 report recorded approximately $17.55 billion in 24-hour trading volume at its snapshot and said BTC had slipped as low as $79,332. These are rolling figures that change throughout the day. They should not be mixed with a later exchange quote or treated as a closing price.
The drop took place after three sessions of U.S. spot ETF inflows and two sessions of withdrawals. Farside Investors’ daily table records $526.7 million entering on October 19, $23.2 million on October 20 and $524.8 million on October 21. Outflows of $635.6 million and $137.9 million on October 22 and 23 removed $773.5 million. Adding all five entries gives a positive $301.2 million. Farside showed one blank issuer entry for October 23 when reviewed, so its displayed total remains subject to revision.
Two negative sessions therefore matter without turning the week into a net withdrawal. The funds still finished ahead, but their daily demand reversed just as Bitcoin failed to hold higher prices. The report on the three-day inflow run had already noted that the market retreated after approaching $85,000. New ETF money did not by itself keep BTC there.
Derivatives losses have amplified some of the moves. CoinGlass figures cited in the October 26 price report showed $154.23 million in crypto liquidations during one 24-hour window, including $117.99 million in longs and $32.94 million attributed to Bitcoin positions. Other articles have reported much larger rolling totals at different cutoffs. Liquidation dashboards cover different windows, exchanges and asset groups, so a market-wide number from another hour should not be presented as a contradiction or as Bitcoin-only losses.
Bitcoin’s retreat is therefore observable. The size of a second leg remains open. The current evidence shows price weakness, a change in daily fund flows and forced closures of some leveraged bets. It does not show a confirmed path to $70,000 or an investor group committed to buying every dip under $80,000.
What would make a drop turn into a crash?
An ordinary fall can become much steeper when selling causes more selling. Traders who borrowed to buy BTC must add collateral or close positions as the price declines. Exchanges liquidate positions whose margin is insufficient, adding market orders to an already falling market. Liquidity providers may quote smaller bids when volatility rises, so each forced order can reach further down the book.
Bitfinex analysts warned about renewed liquidation risk after futures open interest rose 4.3% between October 12 and 15 even as Bitcoin fell. They identified $79,821 as a possible trigger and an accumulation area from roughly $77,600 to $80,400. The assessment was dated October 19. Its figures describe positioning at that time and must be checked against current open interest before they are used to describe today’s leverage.
The distinction between an exchange liquidation and an investor choosing to sell matters. A long can be liquidated even if its owner still believes Bitcoin will recover. Once the trade closes, the person may be unable to buy back at the same size. A fresh buyer can absorb the order, but if bids are thin, the closing trade can depress the price and force another margin account to unwind.
ETF withdrawals offer a second channel. Authorized participants can redeem fund shares for cash or, where a fund’s procedures permit, Bitcoin. The SEC allowed in-kind redemptions in 2025. An outflow does not mean a fund immediately sold the equivalent amount of BTC on a public exchange. Cash settlement, participant hedging and later sales can still put pressure on the market. The route from fund shares to Bitcoin depends on how each fund and authorized participant handles a redemption.
There is a practical way to assess a possible cascade. Sustained closes below the recent buyer area, growing exchange sell volume, another contraction in bid depth and rising forced long closures would together show more than a passing move through a round number. None alone proves a crash. If liquidations fall as the price stabilizes and spot bids rebuild, leverage may have been cleared without a larger decline.
The $80,000 bids have already been tested
Glassnode’s October 21 on-chain review said Bitcoin briefly reached about $80,000 on October 15 and buyers refilled bids within days. Its research put estimated ETF and corporate treasury cost bases around $80,000 to $81,500. Above the market, it identified cost-basis supply and liquidation clusters around $85,000 to $87,500. The analysis relied on dated order-book, on-chain and fund data gathered through October 21 or earlier.
A cost basis is the average price paid by a group as estimated through available holdings and transaction data. It is not a guaranteed limit order. A treasury that bought at $81,000 can sell below that price, hold for years or raise cash to buy more. ETF investors have different personal entry points from the aggregate cost of coins held by the fund. Crossing an estimated average does not automatically make every holder a seller.
Glassnode placed its True Market Mean around $77,600 in the October study. Its analysts described a daily close below $80,000 as a condition that would bring that reference into focus. The reported October 26 intraday low of $79,332 is not a daily close. Even a close below $80,000 would identify a weaker market, not a predetermined move to $77,600.
Order books can change quickly. A bid visible during the October 15 dip may have been filled, canceled or moved. The price needs new buying when the next wave of sales arrives. Glassnode’s observation shows that demand existed at the earlier low, which is a meaningful counterpoint to an automatic crash narrative. It cannot establish that the same firms or holders will repeat those purchases after the Fed’s decision.
The September and October price paths have included several rebounds after moves through nearby levels. Such rebounds demonstrate that sellers did not overwhelm demand on those occasions. They do not establish a permanent floor. A useful follow-up will compare the volume transacted at the low and the subsequent ability to hold above it, not a screenshot of a single block of bids.
The Fed decision comes before a second inflation test
The Federal Reserve lists October 27 and 28 for its next policy meeting. It normally publishes the decision at 2 p.m. Eastern on the second day, followed by the chair’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. The September PCE inflation report is scheduled for October 29, after the decision. A forecast claiming the committee already knew that released number would get the calendar wrong.
The current target range is 3.75% to 4.00% after September’s quarter-point hike, according to the Federal Reserve’s published decisions. A pause would leave the rate unchanged while the statement and press conference could still alter expectations for December. A hike would change the policy rate itself. Neither outcome mechanically dictates Bitcoin’s closing price. Treasury yields, the dollar, stocks and oil can all move on what policymakers say about future inflation and growth.
The October price outlook also looked at the Fed decision and PCE release as separate events. A reassuring statement could be followed by a hotter inflation figure, or a stern statement by softer data. The two releases can pull expectations in different directions, and trading after Wednesday’s announcement may look quite different by Friday.
The Friday options expiry adds another market event, although an expiring notional amount is not cash flowing through spot Bitcoin. Traders may close, roll or let contracts expire, and dealers can adjust hedges as BTC approaches major strike prices. Public open-interest data can show how much is outstanding, but it cannot say every contract will become a BTC sale. A claim that the full notional value “hits the market” would exaggerate the mechanism.
Oil provides an additional uncertainty. Reuters reported on October 26 that Brent eased from its recent high while geopolitical risk still influenced energy markets. Higher energy prices can complicate the inflation outlook and rate expectations; a decline may relieve some pressure. Those channels are plausible, but a day of oil movement does not isolate its contribution to a Bitcoin trade.
The bear case has several steps, not one level
The most immediate bearish case begins with an inability to reclaim $80,000 on a sustained basis. A daily close below the October 15 buying zone, accompanied by renewed ETF withdrawals and heavier spot selling, would make Glassnode’s $77,600 reference more relevant. If futures longs are still crowded, forced closures could accelerate the move. The sequence is conditional, and each link can be checked after the event.
The October 26 market article identified $79,000 to $80,000 as the immediate area, with $75,000 and $70,000 farther below if selling continues. Those are chart references from a dated assessment, not targets derived from a disclosed liquidation model. From $79,947, a move to $75,000 is about 6.2% and to $70,000 about 12.4%. The calculation divides each difference by the $79,947 reference price. Neither percentage supplies a probability.
Selling need not come from one source. A household selling coins to reduce risk, a market maker hedging ETF shares, a miner meeting expenses and a futures exchange liquidating a position produce different transactions. They can arrive together during a risk-off session. The published fund and liquidation totals cannot allocate every dollar of Bitcoin’s daily turnover among them.
The fall would be more concerning if lower prices did not bring higher spot buying. Glassnode’s October 19 pulse said selling had eased, but fresh demand had not replaced it; ETF trading volume was below its lower band and spot takers remained sellers in that reporting window. Such a combination leaves the market more dependent on a small set of bids. The next update can show whether conditions have improved or worsened since that dated study.
Another bearish argument points to the estimated ETF holder cost basis. If many holders are near a loss, continuing weakness might prompt them to reduce exposure. Yet the cost estimate is an aggregate, and investors often hedge or hold through losses. A mass withdrawal cannot be inferred from the market price alone. Actual fund redemptions across several sessions would supply the stronger evidence.
The strongest case against another slide
The last five completed ETF sessions still show $301.2 million in net inflows under Farside’s displayed figures. Large withdrawals on Thursday and Friday did not erase Monday and Wednesday’s buying. If inflows resume, fund demand could help absorb coins available at lower prices, subject to how creations are executed and how other holders trade.
Glassnode found buyers around the $80,000 area after October 15’s dip and said realized profit-taking had slowed to roughly half its pace at September’s high. Less selling from holders taking gains can make a recovery easier even when new demand is not especially strong. Its findings apply to the dates covered by the report, and a new episode needs new data.
Some leverage has already been closed. Liquidations are painful for those traders, but a reduction in open interest can leave fewer positions vulnerable to the next downward move. The risk would diminish if price held while funding rates and open interest cooled. That conclusion would require a sequence of readings rather than one afternoon’s liquidation count.
Macroeconomic news could be less severe than traders fear. A hold at the Fed followed by PCE data that do not intensify inflation concern could leave Treasury yields and risk appetite more favorable to BTC. The conditional statement is not a forecast of the releases. It identifies why a slide before the meeting need not continue after it.
A return above $82,000 would move Bitcoin back over the immediate area highlighted in the October 26 price report. Buyers would still face the $85,000 to $87,500 zone Glassnode identified from older coin cost bases and order-book supply. Recovering $82,000 would be evidence that the weekend weakness did not develop into a persistent breakdown; clearing the higher supply would be a separate event.
— crypto.news (@cryptodotnews) September 26, 2026JUST IN: Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer says Bitcoin has entered a new bull market
Timmer says $BTC successfully held the $60,000 level and his long-term model points to a potential $300,000 target by 2029. pic.twitter.com/WahLSnHCuB
A price break needs confirmation beyond the chart
ETF outflows are one measure of demand for a particular product. They are neither a census of institutions nor a record of all Bitcoin trades. Friday’s $137.9 million net outflow could coexist with buying by direct holders on exchanges or in private transactions. A return to net ETF inflows would not by itself prove a healthy spot market if other holders were selling more.
Futures open interest counts outstanding contracts, with a long and a short on each. Rising interest can accompany hedging, directional speculation or arbitrage. Funding rates help describe the premium traders pay to hold perpetual futures, but they do not reveal every account’s intention. A drop in open interest during a fall can show positions closing, yet the same reading could reflect voluntary exits alongside liquidations.
Exchange deposits are another imperfect signal. CryptoQuant’s Darkfost said retail-sized Bitcoin deposits to Binance had reached a six-month high in a 30-day measure while whale deposits fell, according to the October 26 coverage. A deposit gives its owner the option to trade; it is not evidence that the coin was sold. Comparing deposits with executed spot volume and price is more informative than labeling every transfer a sell order.
An options expiry likewise needs its own scale. Contract notional represents underlying exposure at strike values. It is not the amount of cash changing hands and does not reveal whether a dealer is long or short BTC after hedges. Volatility near expiry can be real without the popular claim that the whole open-interest figure is dumped into the market.
The most persuasive signal would come from several sources agreeing across a completed trading period. Sustained closes below the recent buyer range, higher executed spot selling, continuing ETF net withdrawals and a renewed rise in liquidated longs would describe a market in which demand is failing to meet supply. If price recovers while open interest cools and ETF flows stabilize, the brief move under $80,000 will have conveyed a different message.
At the time of writing, technical indicators showed a mixed picture. The 14 day RSI was neutral at 42.7, while the daily exponential moving averages gave a bearish signal. The reading leaves room for a rebound, but does not confirm one.
The next drop has no fixed destination
The word “crash” describes an outcome after it happens; it is not a price level that an indicator can certify beforehand. Bitcoin has already crossed $80,000 intraday. What matters next is whether sellers force the daily and weekly market through the bids that previously appeared there and whether fresh capital arrives below them. The $77,600, $75,000 and $70,000 figures come from different forms of analysis and should not be presented as a single staircase BTC must descend.
Glassnode’s estimate around $77,600 is a modeled market-wide valuation reference as of its October report. The $75,000 and $70,000 marks in the price coverage are conditional chart areas if selling persists. Historical cost, order-book depth and a round-number price operate differently. An investor who buys at one level does not promise to buy the same amount at the next.
The upside case carries its own burden of proof. BTC can reclaim $80,000 during a volatile afternoon and still meet sellers near $82,000 or $85,000. A sustained recovery with spot volume and a repeat of ETF inflows would give the rebound more evidence. Glassnode’s October 21 study placed older coin holders’ cost basis and large asks between about $85,000 and $87,500, a region that would require buying to absorb supply if the market reaches it.
Current data cannot tell how the Fed will vote, what Thursday’s inflation report will show or how much of Friday’s expiring options exposure is hedged. Treating any one unknown as a certain crash trigger would conceal the rest. The first verified results arrive with the Fed’s October 28 statement and the subsequent inflation release; Friday’s completed fund rows and trading data will then show how investors responded.
What to watch
- Completed daily closes: Check whether BTC closes below $80,000 and whether the market regains the level in the next sessions, instead of relying on a brief intraday print.
- Spot ETF flows: Compare each completed Farside fund row with the $301.2 million five-session net inflow and check for revisions to October 23.
- Leverage and executed trading: Watch changes in open interest, funding, liquidations and spot volume together; rolling liquidation totals alone change by the hour.
- Fed and inflation calendar: Read the October 28 policy statement before drawing conclusions from the October 29 PCE report, which the committee cannot have seen as a published figure.
- Buyers below $80,000: Look for executed spot demand near the October 15 buyer area and around Glassnode’s $77,600 reference, without assuming prior bids remain in place.
FAQ
Will Bitcoin price crash again this week?
No public data can establish that outcome in advance. Bitcoin has traded below $80,000, but sustained selling, weak bids and further leveraged liquidations would be needed for a much larger move.
How far did BTC fall on October 26?
The dated crypto.news snapshot placed BTC near $79,947 after an intraday low around $79,332. The figures are time-specific and are not the October 26 closing price.
Did Bitcoin ETFs lose money for the full October 19 to 23 week?
Farside’s displayed rows show $773.5 million leaving on the final two sessions but $1,074.7 million entering during the first three. The resulting five-session net inflow was $301.2 million, subject to any later revisions.
Why is $80,000 being watched?
Glassnode observed buyers near $80,000 after an October 15 dip and estimated ETF and corporate treasury cost bases around $80,000 to $81,500. A previous purchase or average cost does not guarantee a standing bid.
What is the next level below $80,000?
Glassnode’s October 21 study put its True Market Mean near $77,600. It described a daily close below $80,000 as a reason to examine that area, not proof BTC must trade there.
When is the Fed’s October 2026 decision?
The Fed meets on October 27 and 28, with the statement ordinarily issued at 2 p.m. Eastern on October 28. September PCE inflation figures are scheduled for October 29, after the meeting.
Can the October 30 Bitcoin options expiry cause a crash?
It can bring hedge adjustments and volatility, but open-interest notional is not an amount of Bitcoin automatically sold. Actual dealer positions, strikes and spot liquidity decide whether the event creates selling pressure.
What would weaken the crash case?
A sustained recovery above $80,000 and $82,000, supported by executed spot buying and steadier ETF flows, would weaken the case for an immediate breakdown. A single price bounce would provide less evidence. This is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Disclaimer: This article is for information and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Figures reflect regulatory filings and reporting available at the time of writing and change with each disclosure. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or asset. Always do your own research. Information is accurate as of October 26, 2026.