The frequent meetings between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2026 may suggest that Washington and Beijing are entering a more stable phase of their relationship. Yet beneath the diplomatic ceremonies, flattering remarks and promises of cooperation, the rivalry between the world’s two largest economies remains deeply entrenched. Their engagement has helped prevent tensions from escalating, but it has produced few substantive agreements capable of resolving their most consequential disputes.
The two leaders met in China in May and in Washington in September, with further encounters potentially scheduled for November and December. Trump has described the relationship in glowing terms, claiming that the two countries have made “tremendous strides” and that their leaders have never got along better. However, diplomatic warmth should not be mistaken for strategic progress. The central questions surrounding trade, advanced technology, Taiwan and global security remain largely unresolved.
The September summit was therefore less a historic breakthrough than an exercise in managing an increasingly complicated rivalry. Both governments appear to recognize the economic and geopolitical costs of confrontation, but neither is prepared to abandon the strategic advantages it believes are essential to its long-term interests.
Diplomacy without decisive progress
One of the clearest indications of the relationship’s fragility is the limited progress achieved on major international challenges. Washington has sought greater Chinese cooperation on the Iran crisis, but Beijing has offered no significant new assistance that would transform the diplomatic calculations surrounding the conflict.
Artificial intelligence presents another area where expectations exceed tangible results. The proposed US-China Super Intelligence Dialogue and the establishment of a communication channel for reporting AI incidents could provide useful mechanisms for discussing emerging risks. However, their practical value will depend on whether both governments are willing to exchange meaningful information and establish common safeguards.
The stakes are considerable. Artificial intelligence is becoming central to economic competitiveness, military capabilities and national security. Washington and Beijing have strong incentives to prevent technological competition from producing catastrophic consequences, yet both also fear that excessive cooperation could benefit the other side strategically.
Without concrete commitments, dialogue risks becoming a diplomatic gesture rather than a foundation for meaningful cooperation.
Trade offers an equally revealing example. The existing economic truce, originally agreed in October 2025, has been extended only until January 2027. Under the arrangement, Beijing suspended new rare-earth export restrictions for 12 months and agreed to purchase more American agricultural products, while Washington reduced overall tariffs on Chinese goods by 10 percentage points.
Although the agreement temporarily eased pressure, its limited duration underscores how little trust exists between the two economies. Businesses need predictable rules, reliable supply chains and confidence that political disputes will not suddenly disrupt commercial operations. A short-term truce provides none of these assurances.
Bilateral trade reportedly fell by approximately 30 percent to just under $415 billion in 2025. Recovering the peak of roughly $690 billion recorded in 2022 appears unlikely during the remainder of Trump’s presidency, which ends in January 2029 under the current constitutional timetable.
This decline reflects more than temporary disagreements over tariffs. It also demonstrates the growing structural separation of the two economies as both governments seek to reduce strategic dependence on the other.
Xi’s growing diplomatic leverage
The September meeting also highlighted a changing balance in the relationship. Trump’s decision to greet Xi at Joint Base Andrews with a roughly 30-meter red carpet, a 21-member honor guard and a military flyover was an unusually elaborate gesture for a visiting foreign leader.
Ceremonial displays do not independently determine geopolitical power. Nevertheless, symbolism matters in international diplomacy, particularly when both governments are competing to demonstrate status and influence. The reception reinforced the impression that Washington increasingly treats Beijing as a power that cannot be pressured into submission through displays of American prestige alone.
More importantly, Xi appears to have developed a negotiating approach suited to Trump’s unpredictable political style. Rather than responding enthusiastically to personal flattery, the Chinese president has demonstrated a willingness to maintain distance and emphasize Beijing’s own priorities.
Trump has repeatedly praised Xi and his wife, describing them as outstanding and the Washington visit as one of the most impressive events in years. Such language may help establish a cordial atmosphere, but it does not necessarily translate into concessions from the Chinese leadership.
Indeed, Beijing seems increasingly comfortable allowing Washington to make the public declarations of success while carefully protecting its own negotiating position.
This approach reflects a broader lesson in diplomacy: personal rapport can facilitate negotiations, but it cannot substitute for compatible interests. Leaders may praise each other extensively while remaining firmly opposed on the issues that matter most.
Taiwan: The pressure point
Taiwan remains one of the most dangerous sources of potential confrontation. Beijing regards the island as part of China and has repeatedly warned Washington against actions it considers interference in its sovereignty claims. The United States, meanwhile, maintains longstanding commitments to Taiwan’s self-defence and continues to weigh arms sales against the broader risks of escalating tensions.
The Trump administration announced an $11 billion arms package for Taipei in December 2025. Another package, reportedly worth $14 billion, has been delayed, with Trump previously suggesting that the decision could serve as a bargaining chip in negotiations with Beijing.
Xi’s reported threat to withdraw from the September summit over potential American arms sales demonstrated how effectively Taiwan can be used as diplomatic leverage. By raising the possibility of cancelling a high-profile meeting, Beijing placed additional pressure on a White House eager to demonstrate foreign-policy achievements.
The episode also exposed the limits of Trump’s transactional approach. Although he often presents international relations as negotiations in which concessions can be exchanged for economic or political gains, some disputes involve fundamental strategic interests that cannot easily be traded away.
For Beijing, Taiwan is not simply another item on a negotiating agenda. For Washington, decisions concerning Taiwan also affect regional credibility, relations with Asian allies and the wider balance of power in the Indo-Pacific.
Any attempt to treat the issue as a straightforward bargaining exercise therefore risks miscalculating the stakes.
The limits of Trump’s deal-making
Trump’s negotiating philosophy, popularized by his 1987 book The Art of the Deal, emphasizes unpredictability, leverage and the exploitation of an opponent’s vulnerabilities. These tactics helped establish his reputation in business, but their effectiveness in relations between major powers is far less certain.
Xi appears to understand this approach and is increasingly willing to apply similar methods. China can draw on its position in critical mineral supply chains, its expanding technological capabilities and its diplomatic relationships to counter American pressure. Its willingness to withhold concessions also complicates Washington’s efforts to secure quick victories.
The result is a contest in which both sides possess significant leverage, but neither can easily compel the other to accept its preferred outcome.
Even proposals for a broader agreement on advanced AI illustrate the challenge. A temporary pause in the development or deployment of particularly dangerous capabilities could reduce risks, but it would require credible verification, clearly defined limits and confidence that neither side would exploit the other’s restraint. Those conditions remain difficult to establish amid intense strategic competition.
Stability is not a settlement
The immediate achievement of Trump-Xi diplomacy may be that it keeps disagreements within manageable boundaries. Continued communication can reduce the likelihood of miscalculation, preserve opportunities for negotiation and prevent economic disputes from escalating into wider confrontations.
That is valuable, but it should not be confused with a durable settlement.
Washington and Beijing need more than carefully staged summits and temporary trade arrangements. They need sustained mechanisms for managing competition, clearer expectations concerning military and technological activity, and agreements that can survive changes in political mood.
For the United States, this means recognizing that personal pressure and public declarations of victory cannot guarantee Chinese concessions. For China, it means understanding that exploiting American vulnerabilities without offering reciprocal assurances could deepen distrust and encourage a more confrontational US policy.
Ultimately, the future of China-US relations will depend less on how often Trump and Xi meet than on whether their governments can turn diplomatic contact into practical commitments.
The two leaders may continue exchanging compliments and presenting their encounters as successes. But unless those performances produce measurable progress on trade, technology and security, the underlying rivalry will remain unresolved.
In an increasingly unstable international environment, preventing confrontation is an important achievement. Building a relationship capable of enduring strategic competition, however, will require considerably more than the art of the deal.
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