Gulf states are closely watching as Israelis head to the polls on Tuesday, in the first national election since the Oct. 7, 2023 terror attack. A victory for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would mean an increasingly assertive military posture from Israel; his defeat could “be an opportunity to move towards a more stable regional order,” Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House, told Semafor.
Broadly, a Netanyahu win would mean more of the same for the region, too: The Abraham Accords would hold, and Saudi normalization would stay out of reach without a credible path to Palestinian statehood, Vakil, who is also a lecturer at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, said. A new government wouldn’t necessarily shift course on Iran or the Palestinians, but it could “create some diplomatic space” for Gulf engagement on Gaza and the West Bank, according to Vakil. “A Netanyahu defeat would be welcomed by most Gulf capitals.”
Polls point to a deadlocked parliament, with the opposition — an anyone-but-Netanyahu bloc led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot — on track to win the most seats, but short of a majority. That means the potential for protracted coalition talks (Netanyahu took 58 days to form a government after the 2022 vote). Eisenkot supports military action to stop Iran’s nuclear program if necessary, but in recent weeks he has called regime change in Tehran militarily unachievable.
— Kelsey Warner