One day before the elections, Prof. Asher Cohen is drawing attention to a persistent gap in voter turnout between left-wing strongholds and Likud strongholds, highlighting an important factor that could determine the election results.
A seven- or eight-percentage-point gap in voter turnout between left-wing and Likud strongholds could be worth three, four, or even five Knesset seats, according to Prof. Asher Cohen of Bar-Ilan University, who points to one of the key variables in Israeli elections: not only the number of supporters each political camp has, but also the proportion who actually turn out to vote.
In an interview with Arutz Sheva ahead of the elections, Cohen described a pattern that he says has repeated itself over the years. Voter turnout in left-wing strongholds is consistently higher than in Likud strongholds, with the gap sometimes approaching ten percentage points. According to Cohen, even a relatively small change in this gap can have a significant impact on the distribution of Knesset seats.
Cohen emphasized that the comparison concerns population centers identified with the respective political camps, rather than a generalization about every right-wing or left-wing voter. He also pointed to notable exceptions.
"In Religious Zionist polling stations and haredi polling stations, voter turnout is very high. The highest in the country," he explained.
One of the main examples he cited was the 2022 election. According to Cohen, ahead of that election, he was asked about the importance of voter participation in Likud strongholds and pointed to the gap between those areas and voting centers associated with the opposing political camp.
During that election campaign, he said, efforts were made to narrow the gap. The result was not that turnout in Likud strongholds became higher than in left-wing strongholds, but rather that the difference between them narrowed significantly.
"What happened was that a gap of around eight or nine percentage points was dramatically reduced to around three percentage points," he said. "The gap narrowed, and that was enough to win."
Cohen sees this as an illustration of the importance of voter turnout. According to him, when persistent differences exist between groups of voters, the question of how many people in each group exercise their right to vote can significantly affect the overall results.
"We're talking about entire Knesset seats. It's not half a seat or something like that. It's three, four, or five seats," he emphasized.
According to Cohen, these disparities are not unique to Israel. They are also connected to socioeconomic characteristics familiar from studies of political participation throughout the Western world.
Cohen explained that, generally speaking, voter turnout among populations with higher levels of education and higher socioeconomic status tends to be greater than among populations with lower socioeconomic status.
In Israel, he said, this pattern is also reflected in differences between areas associated with the various political camps. However, he does not attribute the gap solely to education or economic status, pointing also to differences in levels of political involvement and interest.
To explain why many citizens do not go to the polls, Cohen referred to a longstanding concept in political science: the "apolitical person."
According to Cohen, public and media discourse generally takes place among people who follow the political system, are familiar with the parties and candidates, and take an interest in day-to-day developments. Outside that circle, however, there is a large population for whom politics does not occupy a central place in life.
"We are not aware of just how many apolitical people there are," he said. "It's not that they aren't interested in what's happening, but people who aren't involved in politics are simply less interested in it."
According to Cohen, people who are accustomed to consuming news and engaging in political discussions sometimes find it difficult to understand just how unrepresentative their own level of involvement is of the general public.
"The discourse among us is a discourse between people who are interested, who read, and who are involved," he said. "But they don't realize that this interest and involvement characterize a minority."
When a voter turnout figure of approximately 70% is published, many assume that around 30% of citizens living in Israel did not go to the polls.
Cohen argues that this conclusion is inaccurate because voter turnout is calculated based on the official voter registry, which also includes eligible voters who do not actually reside in Israel.
According to Cohen, taking into account the number of eligible voters who actually live in Israel produces a different picture. He estimates that turnout among this population is closer to 80%.
Nevertheless, even under this calculation, a significant group still does not vote.
According to Cohen, this figure helps explain why efforts to increase voter participation play such a central role in election campaigns. It also explains the difference between political camps where turnout is already high and areas where a larger proportion of eligible voters do not go to the polls.
"A group that is already maximizing its voter turnout cannot suddenly increase it dramatically," he explained. "The greatest potential for movement is precisely among those who vote less frequently."
In this context, Cohen returned to the 2022 elections and the narrowing of the turnout gap between Likud and left-wing strongholds.
According to him, that example illustrates how changes in voter participation can affect the balance of political power, even without substantially changing the public's political preferences.
He also addressed changes in the methods employed by election campaign headquarters.
According to Cohen, the statistical information available today makes it possible to identify areas where support for particular parties or political camps is especially high and to analyze voting participation patterns in those areas.
In the past, he said, campaign activists would go door to door and attempt to persuade citizens to support a particular party.
Today, it is possible to distinguish between efforts aimed at changing political preferences and efforts focused on voter participation among people who already identify with a particular political camp.
According to Cohen, familiarity with local voting patterns allows campaign headquarters to focus on turnout rather than assuming that everyone who does not vote needs ideological persuasion.
Cohen emphasized that the battle over voter turnout is neither a marginal nor a merely technical issue, but rather a significant part of the electoral picture.
He returned to the historical gaps between concentrations of voters and noted that the central question is how much those gaps will narrow in the current election.
"When Likud narrowed the voter turnout gap from nine percentage points to four or three percentage points, that was enough," he said.
According to Cohen, given the persistent gaps he has identified over the years, actual voter turnout will be one of the key figures to examine after the polls close.