Tensions Rise

Welcome to The Adversarial. Every other week, we’ll provide you with expert analysis on America’s greatest challengers: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and jihadists. Read more below.***IranIndications of a return to direct hostilities are increasing. The United States is evacuating more troops and diplomatic staff and their families from the region, moving a third aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East, and reportedly preparing strike options. Ahead of Israeli elections on Oct. 27, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been campaigning on toppling the Iranian regime, after reportedly contemplating another round of major strikes earlier this month.Diplomatic efforts have stalled. Senior officials from Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey met with Iranian representatives in Tehran on Oct. 26. Pakistan has been involved in mediation efforts throughout the conflict, but the participation of Saudi Arabia’s defense minister, Prince Khalid bin Salman, marked Riyadh’s interest in avoiding another round of fighting. However, there is little indication that Iran’s terms have significantly softened, despite the continued U.S. naval blockade and sanctions that are helping drive the Iranian economy into a nearly 8 percent contraction this year. Nor are there signs that the White House will accept Iranian terms, despite the economic and political pressure of high oil prices and an unpopular war.President Donald Trump had promised that the United States would not attack Iran before U.S. elections on Nov. 3, but there is little to prevent renewed hostilities after that date. Tehran does not trust Trump to wait even that long. While Iranians are suffering under ever-increasing economic pressure, the war has strengthened hardliners, and the regime appears emboldened by its own survival and ability to exert leverage. It is unclear precisely what objectives Trump and Netanyahu seek to accomplish through a new round of strikes, but both have expressed impatience with any other