Overview
Bitcoin trades near $80k on Monday after a push toward $85k on Wednesday failed. Perpetual takers bought that rally and sold it hard from Thursday, and price slipped briefly under $80k on Saturday and again early Monday. Leverage has not cleared with the drop: longs keep paying funding above its high band, and futures open interest sits near its high band.
Spot demand faded with the rally. Spot takers turned to net selling in the second half of the week, keeping spot CVD in the lower part of its range, and momentum stays weak. ETF flows turned to net inflows of about $300M after last week's outflows, but the buying came early in the week and reversed as price fell. ETF MVRV slipped below its low band, so the average ETF holder's gain is thinner than usual.
Options traders are paying for protection. The 25-delta skew climbed toward its high band as puts gained on calls, and implied volatility held while realized volatility fell, which pushed the volatility spread well above its high band. On-chain, transfer volume climbed to the edge of its high band, while fees slipped below their low band and active addresses sit at the bottom of their range.
Capital keeps rotating into newer hands: the hot capital share, the ratio of short-term to long-term holder supply and the monthly change in realized cap all stay above their high bands. Profit-taking spiked above its high band around the midweek high and eased back inside, and short-term holder gains moved back below their high band. In short, the failed push left leverage in place and hedges building, while spot and ETF buyers stepped back.
Off-Chain Indicators
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Spot Indicators
Price Momentum. Increased by 14.3% from 34.1 to 39.0 over the week, indicating a slight upward shift in trend strength. Price Momentum rose from previous lows while remaining in the lower part of its range, reflecting a modest recovery in buying momentum that stays constrained by persistent underlying selling pressure without triggering broader trend reversal signals.
Spot CVD. Decreased by 72.2% from -$46.8M seven days ago to a latest value of -$80.5M. Spot CVD extended deeper into negative territory while staying in the lower part of its range, indicating that aggressive market participants continue to dominate selling pressure on centralized exchanges, driving short-term bearish sentiment and downward price action.
Spot Volume. Decreased by 3.2% from $5.6B to $5.4B, pointing toward a slight contraction in overall exchange liquidity. Spot Volume hovered comfortably inside its range, demonstrating steady market participation without extraordinary activity. This neutral positioning implies that current price movements lack the backing of aggressive expansion or liquidation events, pointing instead to a steady consolidation phase across centralized spot venues.
Futures Indicators
Futures Open Interest. Increased by 2.7% from $36.5B seven days ago to $37.5B, reflecting rising speculative engagement. Futures Open Interest rose steadily as aggressive leverage builds across derivatives venues. The aggregate valuation hovers near the high band, indicating elevated participation and heightened sensitivity to directional price swings driven by active capital deployment in the market.
Long-Side Funding Payment. Increased by 13.2% from $1.9M a week prior to $2.1M, signaling strengthening bullish demand. Long-Side Funding Payment climbed as persistent aggressive positioning increases costs for leveraged buyers. The indicator sits above its high band, reflecting strong demand for long exposure and willingness to pay a premium to hold bullish perpetual contracts.
Perpetual CVD. Decreased by 36.4% from -$211.1M a week ago to -$288.0M, highlighting growing selling pressure. Perpetual CVD extended its downward trajectory as aggressive market takers drove sustained selling volume across exchanges. The metric sits back inside its range after last week's dip below its low band, pointing to dominant sell-side pressure and a prevailing distribution behavior that reflects shifting sentiment among active traders.
Options Indicators
Options Open Interest. Decreased by 0.7% to $38.6B compared to $38.8B seven days ago. Options Open Interest contracted slightly as participants engaged in minor position closures and profit-taking across outstanding contracts. The metric remains in the upper part of its range, indicating stable market participation without aggressive speculative expansion or sudden capital flight near major expiration dates.
Volatility Spread. Increased by 584.5% to 32.3% compared to 4.7% seven days ago. Volatility Spread expanded significantly as implied volatility outpaced realized volatility by a wide margin. Surging far above its high band, the divergence reflects realized volatility falling while implied volatility held steady, with options pricing in much greater risk than the underlying asset has actually realized.
Options 25-Delta Skew. Increased from 8.9% to 10.4% over the week. Options 25-Delta Skew rose as market participants aggressively bid for downside protection, shifting the directional risk perception toward defensive positioning. The indicator climbed toward its high band, signaling that increased demand for puts is making out-of-the-money puts more expensive than calls, which highlights prevailing bearish sentiment and defensive hedging.
ETF Indicators
US Spot ETF Netflow (Weekly). Decreased 39.2% over the past week, shifting from $487.8M down to $296.8M. US Spot ETF Netflow (Weekly) reflects a moderation in incoming institutional capital, sitting comfortably within its established bands to signal that traditional finance demand remains positive yet subdued compared to previous high-water marks of accumulation.
US Spot ETF Trade Volume (Weekly). Increased 0.5% over the week, rising from $10.9B up to $11.0B. US Spot ETF Trade Volume (Weekly) held relatively steady as market participants maintained consistent engagement across exchange traded products. The metric moved back into the middle of its range from below its low band, signaling a period of ongoing consolidation without significant spikes in speculative activity or macro-driven participation from traditional finance.
US Spot ETF MVRV. Decreased 2.2% over the last seven days, moving from 1.4 down to 1.4. US Spot ETF MVRV slipped just below its low band as the profitability of aggregate holdings compressed further, indicating that institutional participants still hold an average unrealized gain, though a thinner one than usual.
On-Chain Indicators
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Fundamental Indicators
Total Fee Volume. Decreased by 8.8% from $203.2K 7 days ago to $185.2K currently. Total Fee Volume drifted lower as block space demand softened. This reduction in aggregate payments points to decreased transaction pressure and quieter market conditions overall. The metric currently sits below its low band, reflecting diminished user willingness to pay for inclusion and a lack of organic urgency for network throughput.
Entity-Adjusted Transfer Volume. Increased by 25.9% from $4.4B 7 days ago to $5.5B currently. Entity-Adjusted Transfer Volume surged as capital movement accelerated across the network. This notable expansion highlights elevated investor activity and larger scale reallocations. The metric is positioned near the high band, pointing to a robust phase of fundamental economic settlement and increased speculative participation among unique entities.
Daily Active Address Count. Decreased by 2.2% from 629.3K 7 days ago to 615.2K currently. Daily Active Address Count contracted as user participation tapered off slightly. This minor pullback reflects quieter user behavior and reduced transactional demand across the network. The metric currently tracks near the low band, pointing to a continuation of subdued speculative activity and a general cooling in immediate retail engagement.
Capital Flows Indicators
Realized Cap Change (Monthly). Decreased by 7.6% over the week to settle at 1.2%. Realized Cap Change (Monthly) moderated as the pace of net capital additions slowed slightly. The indicator remains above its high band, continuing to reflect net capital inflows as coins are acquired at higher prices during ongoing accumulation phases.
STH to LTH Supply Ratio. Increased by 0.8% over the week to stand at 14.8%. STH to LTH Supply Ratio drifted upward alongside a modest shift toward shorter-term positioning. The metric sits just above its high band, implying a growing presence of reactive market participants and elevated trading activity relative to the longer-term holding base.
Hot Capital Share. Increased by 3.9% over the week to reach 21.1%. Hot Capital Share expanded as newer participants increased their footprint. The metric sits well above its high band, signaling an influx of short-term and price-sensitive capital that typically accompanies rapid market rallies and elevated speculative phases across the network.
Profit/Loss States Indicators
Percent Supply in Profit. Decreased from 68.2% to 67.3% over the past seven days, representing a 1.3% decline. Percent Supply in Profit drifted downward while remaining near the high band, indicating that roughly two thirds of the circulating supply stays held at a favorable basis. This persistent concentration of unrealized gains maintains a latent incentive for potential sell-side distribution if spot prices fluctuate.
Net Unrealized Profit to Loss Ratio. Decreased from 9.0% to 7.8% over the past seven days, representing a 13.2% decline. Net Unrealized Profit to Loss Ratio has compressed as the unrealized profit margin of short-term holders narrowed. The reading moved back below its high band, reflecting a slight moderation in investor positioning stress and a cooling of broader market sentiment without triggering deep structural corrections.
Realized Profit to Loss Ratio. Increased from 0.6 to 0.8 over the past seven days, representing a 42.6% increase. Realized Profit to Loss Ratio climbed closer to its high band, signaling that profit realization heavily outpaces loss realization on-chain and highlighting active investor spending behavior characteristic of bullish rallies.
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Exchange balances presented are derived from Glassnode’s comprehensive database of address labels, which are amassed through both officially published exchange information and proprietary clustering algorithms. While we strive to ensure the utmost accuracy in representing exchange balances, it is important to note that these figures might not always encapsulate the entirety of an exchange’s reserves, particularly when exchanges refrain from disclosing their official addresses. We urge users to exercise caution and discretion when utilizing these metrics. Glassnode shall not be held responsible for any discrepancies or potential inaccuracies.
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