Libertarians could spoil Republicans’ chances in the fight for control of the US Senate

DES MOINES, Iowa (AP) — Republicans are worried that Libertarian candidates could siphon away votes in some of this year’s most consequential U.S. Senate elections, potentially costing them control of the chamber.

It’s a particular concern in Texas, Ohio, Kansas and Iowa, which are bracing for razor-thin contests in which even a few percentage points for a third party can be enough to swing the outcome.

Although all of those states lean Republican, a number of party strategists say unhappiness with President Donald Trump could lead some conservatives to cast protest ballots. An unpopular war with Iran and Trump’s expansion of executive power — two issues that grate on an anti-establishment slice of the American right — could fuel the Libertarian Party’s message of nonintervention and limited centralized authority.

“Libertarians, we believe, could draw enough votes to affect the outcome in a number of these races,” said Republican former Ohio state lawmaker Gene Krebs, who is working on a project to diminish the impact of spoiler candidates.

Trump is scheduled to hold rallies in Texas on Tuesday, Ohio on Wednesday and Iowa on Sunday.

Republican Senate campaign officials said they were less concerned about Iowa, where Libertarians are not a regular presence on the ballot, than they are about Ohio, Kansas and Texas. The officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal strategy.

In Ohio, former Libertarian Party national chairman Bill Redpath is running against Republican Sen. Jon Husted and Democratic former Sen. Sherrod Brown.

“The Libertarian can easily pull enough votes away from the Republican so that the Democrat wins,” Krebs said.

Third parties could work against Democrats, too. An organization with Republican ties has distributed fliers promoting a socialist candidate, an apparent effort to pull support away from Brown. Enough Promises Ohio PAC, which sent out the fliers, received $2.5 million from Conservative Americans PAC, according to federal disclosure reports.

Libertarian David Graham is running in Kansas, where Republican Sen. Roger Marshall is locked in a close race with Democrat Adam Hamilton.

This is Graham’s second campaign. He received 3% of the vote in a race Republican Sen. Jerry Moran won by 23 percentage points.

In Texas, Libertarian Ted Brown received only 2.3% of the vote in 2024, when Republican Sen. Ted Cruz easily glided to another term. However, the race is tighter this year, with Democratic nominee James Talarico facing off with Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.

Wayne Hamilton, a former executive director of the Texas Republican Party, said Paxton’s history of legal and ethical problems could have some conservatives looking for another choice.

“Nobody’s voting for the Libertarian. It’s a protest vote,” Hamilton said. “They are going to be voting that way because they don’t want to vote for Paxton, and this is an option.”

Brown is a former insurance adjuster from California who has been a longtime activist in the Libertarian Party going back to supporting Ron Paul’s presidential campaign in 1988. He said some conservative voters have turned on Trump.

“Some libertarians supported him thinking he was an anti-war candidate. And that’s where he’s lost them,” Brown said. “But my view and a lot of libertarians’ view is that separation of powers is very important. This president has seized way too much power in this imperial presidency.”

Brown is under no illusions that he can compete with Paxton and Talarico for the seat. His campaign has a budget of about $30,000 and has spent $7,000 on advertising, running a spot on streaming services in four Texas counties where Libertarians have fared better in recent elections.

That’s compared with the combined advertising total of roughly $390 million that Talarico, Paxton and aligned groups have spent since the May 26 primary, according to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact.

Brown got 267,039 votes in 2024, a record for his party in a Texas Senate race. A great day for him on Nov. 3, he said, would be if he matched that, certain to net a higher percentage in the lower-turnout midterm.

Brown dismissed the criticism he says he gets regularly from Republicans that he is merely spoiling Paxton’s chances.

“They could avoid that problem by nominating a better candidate,” he said.

Brown said he tells Democrats the same thing.

“You can’t spoil a system that’s already rotten,” he said. “There are a lot of people making a protest vote, and there’s good reason to.”