Good start, but delivery will make the difference

Prime Minister Tarique Rahman’s visit to a G7 country within eight months of his taking power should in itself be seen as a positive and major step. Continuation of the traditional bilateral relations with the Asian giant is both desirable and beneficial for Bangladesh, especially in these challenging times.

While the joint statement of the two prime ministers highlights cooperation in infrastructure, energy, human resource, trade, and investment under a ‘strategic partnership’, it dampens hope for a visible elevation of bilateral relations with new terminology or for more robust budgetary support.

There are a few promises of loans, along with the commitments for three substantial projects: Dhaka airport’s third terminal, another MRT line in Dhaka, and the Matarbari port, which is part of an old initiative.

Envisioned as the centrepiece of Japan and Bangladesh’s cooperation, the Bay of Bengal Industrial Growth Belt, BIG-B for Shared Prosperity as it will now be called, is an ‘update’ of an older project that had begun in 2014.

In its new form, this initiative includes the Moheshkhali-Matarbari Integrated Infrastructure Development Initiative (MIDI) that will lead towards a bustling regional hub, a node of international maritime traffic connecting South Asia and countries further west with South East Asia and the far east.

Although mentioned as an exclusive project, the Japan-Bangladesh project, observers say that the BIG-B is meant to be a ‘logistical hub’ for the region, which may include other countries of the region too.

The country representative of Japan External Trade Organization Kazuiki Kataoka, who is also the president of the Japan Bangladesh Chamber of Commerce and Industries, also thought Matarbari was envisioned as a crucial regional node. “It can become a logistical hub between South Asia and East Asia, connecting not just the seven sisters [eastern provinces of India] but also Nepal and Bhutan.”

Taken together with the Free and Open Indo-Pacific, the joint statement suggests that Bangladesh, wedged between India and South East Asia on top of the Bay of Bengal, is key to Sanae Takaichi’s vision of a peaceful and prosperous Indo-Pacific. 

The statement reads, “Prime Minister Rahman noted the importance of Prime Minister Takaichi’s initiative of the ‘Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP)’ in ensuring peace, stability and prosperity for all.”

Other than a commitment of about 50 billion yen, worth almost $317 million for fuel purchase, the joint statement projects a private investment of about $6.33 billion over five years, creating two lakh jobs. While there is naturally no guarantee, Kataoka says with conviction that “it is very realistic”. There is also mention of a Japanese business delegation visiting Bangladesh soon, perhaps to further explore possibilities. A loan for a project to improve the investment environment as mentioned in the statement, without any specific figures also appears to be a rational decision.

The two prime ministers agreed on reform of the UN Security Council, including expansion of both permanent and non-permanent categories of membership. But there was nothing significant or forthcoming from Japan as regards the Rohingyas are concerned as joint statement expressed concern over the worsening crisis in Myanmar. The statement called for immediate cessation of violence, release of those detained, conducive environment for humanitarian assistance; “and dialogue between all parties and affected groups, including the Rohingyas”.

Although there had been reports of both countries working on the language to signify an elevation of relations from “strategic partnership” to “comprehensive strategic partnership”, it did not materialise. There was also an expectation, based on reports, that this visit would result in loans and financial support worth around $2 billion dollars. That does not seem to have materialised either. However, a full assessment of the complete package of assistance can only be done once the details of the deals signed during the visit become clearer.