Thousands more Americans are leaving blue states for red states than moving in the opposite direction, according to a new analysis by professional movers’ marketplace MovingPlace.
Republican-leaning states, so identified based on how they voted in the 2016, 2020 and 2024 presidential elections, saw the biggest gains out of the 1,559,739 interstate moves recorded by PGM between January and August. In total, red states reported 707,681 arrivals against 605,071 departures, or +0.78 net moves per 1,000 residents, for a net gain of 102,610.
Two states alone were responsible for the majority of these gains: Florida and Texas. The two states—both in the South, both considered generally affordable and with friendly tax environments—reported the most interstate gains, with 34,396 and 21,023 respectively, the equivalent of 54 percent of all Republican-leaning states’ net gain.
Democratic-leaning states, by comparison, reported 498,751 interstate arrivals against 624,577 departures in the same period, or four arrivals for every five departures, for a net loss of 125,826. The biggest losses were reported by California and New York, two expensive coastal states which have long been losing residents to more affordable cities near them or across state lines. With the addition of Illinois, the three states represented 64 percent of all losses in blue states.
Competitive, or swing, states recorded a modest net gain of 25,178 moves.
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What emerges from the data is not only that red states are winning the domestic migration race over blue states, but also that Republican-leaning states are gaining many more new residents from Democratic-leaning states than the other way round.
The majority of moves reported between January and August occurred between states of different political faiths, so to say, while 38 percent took place within the same political group.
The largest individual flow between groups was from Democratic-leaning to Republican-leaning states, with 252,166 moves, according to MovingPlace. Moves from blue to red states outnumbered moves in the reverse direction by a net 86,626.
States With Biggest Gains And Biggest Losses
Fifteen of the 24 Republican-leaning states identified by MovingPlace recorded a net gain in moves, while only nine saw more departures than arrivals. The biggest overall net migration gains—including by other red states or blue states—were reported by:
- Florida: 34,396
- Texas: 21,023
- South Carolina: 19,236
- Tennessee: 12,322
- Idaho: 8,267
Forty percent of Florida’s arrivals came from Democratic-leaning states, compared with 31 percent from other Republican-leaning states, and 42 percent of Texas’s arrivals came from blue states compared to 39 percent from red states. Tennessee is the main exception in this list, with 45 percent of new arrivals coming from other Republican-leaning states.
On a per-capita basis, Idaho recorded the strongest per-capita gain among Republican-leaning states, at 4.37 net moves per 1,000 residents, followed by South Carolina at 3.69 and Montana at 2.54. South Dakota and Tennessee also posted gains of more than 1.7 net moves per 1,000 residents. Florida ranked sixth.
There were some winners among blue states as well, with four states—Delaware, Maine, Vermont and Oregon—recording positive net migration. Delaware led the group with 2,166 gains, followed by Maine (1,607), Vermont (156) and Oregon (144).
The dominant trend among blue states, however, was negative. The biggest net migration losses were reported by:
- California: -34,191
- New York: -29,171
- Illinois: -16,630
- New Jersey: -12,044
- Massachusetts: -11,287
Most of these states lost a majority of their fleeing residents to Republican-leaning states, with 54 percent of Illinois departures going to red states, the highest share in the group. Colorado followed, with 51 percent going to Republican-leaning states.
On a per-capita basis, Massachusetts recorded the largest decline at 1.61 net moves lost per 1,000 residents, followed by New York at 1.47 and Maryland at 1.44 net moves lost per 1,000 residents.
While states like Florida and Texas dominate domestic migration trends in the U.S., not all red states are proving equally appealing to moving Americans, with nine recording more departures than arrivals within the first eight months of the year.
Among these, Ohio saw the largest net loss in absolute terms, at 4,888 moves, while Alaska recorded the largest per-capita decline.
Swing States Are Seeing Fewer Newcomers than Red Ones
Key battleground states are seeing fewer newcomers than red states, according to MovingPlace, softening the impact of cross-party interstate migration on their political identity.
The nine swing states recorded a net gain of 25,178 moves between January and August, with 345,238 arrivals compared with 320,060 departures, or a net gain of 0.37 moves per 1,000 residents. Six recorded net gains in moves, while three experienced net losses.
The biggest net migration gains were reported by:
- North Carolina: 20,381
- Arizona: 6,160
- Wisconsin: 4,224
- Georgia: 2,735
- Nevada: 1,758
New Hampshire also recorded gains, while Minnesota, Michigan and Pennsylvania experienced net losses.
Blue states accounted for the largest share of arrivals into swing states, at 43.4 percent, followed by red states at 40.0 percent and other purple states at 16.6 percent.
How Domestic Migration Could Change States’ Political Identity
The key research question that MovingPlace’s analysis elicits is whether domestic migration can change a state’s political identity—not just how many electoral votes it has, but its partisan balance, voter composition, policy preferences, and longer-term political culture.
While we know how Americans are moving across state lines, we do not know why. Some may be moving because of affordability issues or work opportunities, while others may be doing so to be closer to family members or for political reasons.
Whatever their reasons, people moving across the country bring their existing political preferences with them, potentially changing the balance of the electorate in their new home states when they do so in relevant numbers over an extended period of time. The impact is minimal now, but could become significant in the future.
According to population forecasts by the U.S. Census Bureau, migration to Sun Belt states could result in two-thirds of all Americans living in the South and West by 2030, a shift that could affect the way electoral votes are distributed across the country. The same predictions expect 30 percent of all Americans to live in California, Texas, and Florida—currently two red states and one blue.
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here. Contact Newsweek editors for this story: Robert Greenall and Matthew Robinson