Raw offensive production was not the Astros offensive issue last season. They produced one of the best OPS+ in baseball, ranking in the top three. The problem really boiled down to situational hitting and timely home runs.
Despite a good OPS+, the Astros barely scored more than league average with 4.53 runs per game (league average is 4.48).
Just looking at some of the numbers in isolation, the Astros had a strong offensive year. But looking at situational stats, some were outstanding and some were very poor.
Home Run Numbers
The Astros were second in baseball (trailing only the Texas Rangers) in home run leading off the inning. The Astros led all of baseball in home runs so this isn’t surprising. Every leadoff homerun clearly comes with the bases empty. Hitting home runs with the bases empty was a big storyline for the 2026 Astros.
The Astros had 0.48 runners on per home run compared to the major league average of 0.58. This was made worse by opposing teams electing to intentionally walk Houston’s best home run hitter, Yordan Alvarez, 33 times. This problem reared its head in the playoffs as the Astros hit four home runs but three were solo and the other was a two-run shot.
Runners In Scoring Position
The Astros also led the league in batting with two outs and runners in scoring position, usually the mark of a team with a good record who might be getting a tad lucky. The Astros posted a .821 OPS with two outs and runners in scoring position with a .264 average. The .821 mark was 39 points higher than the next best team in the Philadelphia Phillies. They were tied for fifth in baseball in home runs in these situations with 25.
The Astros were third in baseball in hitting in a one run game or tied. They posted a .760 OPS in these scenarios. They were fifth best in baseball at hitting when the margin was four runs or less.
Advancing Runners
So those were positives, what about the negatives? The Astros were near the bottom of the league in advancing a runner from third to home with less than two outs. They did so at a 47.3% clip, fourth worst in baseball oddly in front of two playoff teams in the Chicago Cubs and Cleveland Guardians.
With a runner on second and no outs, moving that runner to third base can be the sign of a team that plays small ball well. The Astros advanced that runner over in 48.3% of chances, worse than the major league average of 52.2%. Looking at how poorly the Astros hit with a runner on third and less than two outs, perhaps not advancing the runner to third wasn’t a total backbreaker.
Full Count Hitting
The Astros weren’t efficient when hitting with a full count, a crucial marker of success as Milwaukee led the league in this category with an .856 OPS. The Astros OPS came out to .739, bottom fifth in baseball. Their on-base percentage on full counts was a dreadful .424, second worst in MLB just in front of the San Francisco Giants.
Timely hitting is a hard problem to address in free agency and the trade market. The Astros have to hit more homers with runners on base if they are going to be a team in 2027 that doesn’t bring much else to the table offensively.
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