Benjamin Netanyahu has posted a disturbing AI warning on social media showing a nuclear explosion destroying Tel Aviv, as Israelis head to the polls in a momentous election that could oust the long-serving prime minister.
The Israeli leader posted an AI-generated image of a nuclear explosion destroying Tel Aviv on X with a claim the country could face a “second Holocaust” if Iran acquires nuclear weapons.
The message, posted just hours before the elections today, suggested that voting for a new prime minister who would not be tough on Iran could have catastrophic consequences for Israel.
The post came amid a flurry of AI videos posted by the prime minister warning of disastrous outcomes if he is ousted, with critics branding them a desperate attempt to stay in power.
Netanyahu has campaigned on a promise to “finish the job” against Iran after several rounds of fighting. His team also released election videos showing Iranian leaders monitoring the results and hoping for an opposition victory.
The opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot accused Netanyahu of using “lies and scare tactics”. Israeli comments on the nuclear explosion post noted that the prime minister previously claimed to have destroyed Iran’s nuclear threat.
Another video from Netanyahu warned that preventing an opposition alliance from taking power with support from Arab parties is “a matter of life and death”.
The Israeli leader has courted controversy throughout a fractious campaign, including a spat with the military over a potential new attack on Iran, with polls suggesting today’s vote could mark the end of his long reign.
Who are the key players?
Netanyahu’s right-wing Likud party currently leads a governing coalition with support from far-right partners the Religious Zionist Party and Jewish Power, and two religious parties, Shas and United Torah Judaism.
The opposition bloc is led by Eisenkot’s centrist Yashar party, which has the support of right-wing party Jewish Home, the centre-right Together grouping and the centre-left Democrats.
Neither bloc is expected to reach the 61 seats required for a majority in Israel’s parliament, the Knesset, according to polls, which could give influence to unaligned parties.
Two Arab parties, Ra’am and the Joint List, are not committed to either group but they are expected to provide – potentially critical – support for the opposition. The new Reservists party, running on ending exemptions from military service, is keeping its options open.
Dozens of smaller parties are also running but not expected to play a part in forming a government, from the libertarian Pirates party to the feminist All Women Unite.
How the election works
Israel uses a complex electoral system that makes predictions difficult and often leads to messy outcomes.
Voters cast their ballot for a single party and the totals are used to determine representation in Israel’s parliament, the Knesset. A party must clear a threshold of 3.25 per cent to secure seats in parliament.
If a party does not clear the threshold, its votes are distributed among parties that have, which can dramatically shift the balance of power among competing coalitions. The failure of the left-wing Meretz party to reach the magic number in 2022 helped Netanyahu to an eight-seat majority.
Several parties are polling close to the threshold this time including the Reservists.
Parties can sign vote-sharing agreements that allow them to combine votes for additional seats, as Likud did with the Religious Zionist Party in 2022.
Each party that wins seats submits a recommendation for a prime minister to Israel’s president, currently Isaac Herzog, who chooses the candidate they believe is most likely to command a majority or workable coalition. That leader then has 28 days to form a government, which can be extended by a further 14 days.
If no coalition is sustainable, another election is called. Israel held five in four years up to the last vote in 2022.
What’s on the line for Israel, the region and the world
The election is Israel’s first since the deadly Hamas attacks of 7 October 2023 and subsequent wars from Gaza to Iran, and it could have profound implications for the region and beyond.
The vote is largely a referendum on Netanyahu, said Nimrod Novik, an Israeli political analyst and former diplomat. “The national divide for a long time now is yes Bibi or no Bibi,” he said, using a shortening of the Prime Minister’s first name.
Israel’s longest-serving Prime Minister has been written off many times over nearly 20 years in office over three spells, with many analysts predicting that security failures around the Hamas attacks – which happened on his watch – would end his reign.
But Netanyahu has rebuilt his security credentials through a series of military campaigns that have been popular with the Israeli public – while damaging the country’s international standing – and still has a chance of a seventh term.
Defeat could mean resumption of his trial on corruption charges and a potential prison sentence.
The Israeli leader has pledged to resume the war with Iran and bring down its clerical regime, while maintaining control of occupied territory in Gaza, the West Bank, Syria, and Lebanon.
If his coalition returns, far-right partners such as the finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, will seek formal annexation of the Palestinian territories and settlements in Gaza.
The opposition may appear less hawkish but Together co-leader Naftali Bennett has suggested Israel could take on new foes, describing Turkey as the “next Iran” and Qatar as an enemy.
All but one of the opposition leaders have pledged to thwart the creation of a Palestinian state and pledged varying degrees of support for settlements on Palestinian territory that are illegal under international law.
But there could be a silver lining if the opposition bloc does secure power. The British government believes it could be more amenable to re-establishing the British consulate in East Jerusalem that was downsized after the UK imposed sanctions on settlements last month.