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Access Holdings Plc and United Bank for Africa (UBA) Plc are drawing investor attention as Nigerian banking stocks record strong gains, with analysts highlighting the gap between some lenders’ market valuations and their underlying assets and earnings potential.
The NGX Banking Index has risen sharply in 2026, although investors remain cautious about earnings sustainability, credit risks and regulatory capital requirements.
Access Holdings and UBA feature prominently in the valuation debate, although analysts caution that apparently low share prices do not automatically translate into investment gains.
Access Holdings, Nigeria’s largest banking group by total assets, recorded gross earnings of N5.53 trillion and profit after tax of N743.05 billion in 2025. Its total assets rose to N51.56 trillion, according to its reported financial results.
Despite the scale of its operations, market assessments indicate that the group trades at a substantial discount to its net asset value, making its price-to-book ratio a key consideration for investors evaluating its shares.
UBA, meanwhile, offers exposure to multiple African markets through its pan-African banking network. Its international operations provide geographic diversification, although currency movements, credit risks and differences in economic conditions across its markets can affect earnings.
The bank reported group profit after tax of approximately N404.70 billion in 2025, down from N766.57 billion in 2024, reflecting the impact of higher credit-related and other financial charges.
Market analysts say the valuation gap across major Nigerian banks reflects investor concerns about the sustainability of earnings, future interest margins, foreign-exchange movements and the cost of meeting higher regulatory capital requirements.
As the Central Bank of Nigeria moves away from the aggressive monetary tightening of previous years, lower interest rates could eventually reduce the returns banks earn on some interest-bearing assets.
This could moderate earnings growth even where lending and deposit operations remain strong.
However, analysts also note that falling fixed-income yields can encourage investors to seek alternative returns in equities, including dividend-paying banking stocks.
For investors, the central question is whether current valuations adequately reflect the banks’ long-term earnings capacity or whether they signal legitimate concerns about future profitability and balance-sheet risks.
The outlook for shareholder returns, however, requires caution. Access Holdings and UBA were among the lenders facing uncertainty over the resumption of dividend payments following regulatory restrictions and increased loan-loss provisions.
Analysts say investors should therefore assess confirmed dividend approvals, cash generation, capital adequacy and credit quality rather than relying solely on historical payouts or projected yields.
For Access Holdings and UBA, the valuation debate presents a broader test for Nigeria’s banking market: whether strong asset bases and established franchises can translate into sustainable shareholder returns as monetary conditions and regulatory demands evolve.
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