Sangsangin Investment & Securities raised its target price for LG H&H (051900.KS) to 350,000 won from 330,000 won and lifted its rating to buy from hold. The brokerage said near-term earnings gains will be limited but that the stock has become more attractively priced after a recent slide widened the gap with its target, and as valuations for global cosmetics companies have climbed.
The new target, announced on the 27th, implies 35.9% upside from the Oct. 26 close of 257,500 won. It is based on 12-month forward net profit attributable to controlling shareholders of 288 billion won and a target price-to-earnings ratio of 17.5 times, a 30% discount to the average PER of L'Oreal, Estee Lauder, Procter & Gamble and Unilever.
The upgrade rests mainly on the wider valuation gap. "The recent decline in the share price has widened the spread between our target price and the current price," said Song Ji-yeon, an analyst at Sangsangin Investment & Securities. The brokerage also raised its target PER to 17.5 times from 16.6 times to reflect higher multiples at global peers. It kept the 30% discount to those peers, however, citing LG H&H's reliance on Dr. Groot for overseas growth.
Third-quarter results are expected to fall short of market forecasts. Song estimated revenue of 1.63 trillion won, up 3.1% from a year earlier, and operating profit of 93.1 billion won, up 101.5%. That profit figure is about 10% below the consensus estimate of 103.4 billion won.
The cosmetics division is seen swinging to a profit, with revenue of 718.5 billion won and operating profit of 21.6 billion won. Duty-free sales were estimated at about 90 billion won, little changed from the previous quarter. In China, revenue declines are expected to deepen as the company scales back live-streaming sales during a seasonally weak period, with losses continuing. In North America, the deconsolidation of Avon from September is expected to cut monthly revenue by about 20 billion won.
The household goods and beverage businesses also weigh on earnings. Household goods revenue is projected at 402.9 billion won and operating profit at 29.9 billion won, down 0.2% and 6.5% from a year earlier. Beverage revenue is seen falling 1.1% to 507 billion won, with operating profit down 33.5% to 41.6 billion won. Weak domestic beverage consumption, higher raw material costs and promotional spending will squeeze margins, the brokerage said.
Full-year earnings are recovering from last year's trough. Sangsangin Investment & Securities forecast 2026 operating profit of 362.6 billion won, up 112.4% from a year earlier. For next year, it projected revenue of 6.72 trillion won, up 5.9%, and operating profit of 425.4 billion won, up 17.3%. The stock trades at an estimated 15.9 times this year's earnings, falling to 12.2 times next year. Fourth-quarter profit improvement will be modest as the beverage business enters its seasonal low, the brokerage said. "Until overseas results from additional brands are confirmed, we will maintain the 30% discount to peers, and near-term earnings improvement is expected to remain limited," Song said.
